3 ms·
Yes, in effect, gambling. The point I was trying to make is that the payoffs for X, for many real-world situations, are dwarfed by payoffs for "beyond X." So,
by tmoertel 14y ago
Yes, in effect, gambling.
The point I was trying to make is that the payoffs for X, for many real-world situations, are dwarfed by payoffs for "beyond X." So, in those situations, it's not a mind trick but rational to bet on the rare but high-paying "beyond X" potential, even though a sure "X" is available.
In other words, when Payoff(X) < Sum(Probability(x) * Payoff(x) for all x > X), it's rational to take the bet, not the sure thing.
- StavrosK 14y agoThe problem is that, usually, for people with experience, awards, etc, the probability of other people surpassing the former is pretty small. "The next big thing" is a strict subset of "Maybe the next big thing".