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On the other hand, drug discovery sounds like it's a candidate for really benefitting from AI. To fuel AI model development, there maybe has to be all the garba

On the other hand, drug discovery sounds like it's a candidate for really benefitting from AI. To fuel AI model development, there maybe has to be all the garbage that comes with AI.

lm28469 1y ago
What drugs? The leading causes of death are routine induced, 80% of cancers are caused by your environment, &c. We have much better things to do with these billions
- ribosometronome 1y ago
  Drugs to cure the diseases caused by your environment. It's not as if people are suddenly going to be making perfect decisions (e.g. never getting a sunburn, not eating meat, avoiding sugary foods).
  - lm28469 1y ago
    So all these things that skyrocketed in the span of 75 years are immutable facts of life, but magic drugs are somehow in the realm of possibilities? What's easier, educate your people and feed them well to build a strong and healthy nation OR let them rot and shovel billions to pharma corps in the hope of finding a magic cure?
    - astrange 1y ago
      Second one's easier. Technological improvements are always easier than social change. > shovel billions to pharma corps in the hope of finding a magic cure? What do you mean finding? We already found it (GLP-1 inhibitors). Ozempic is even owned by a nonprofit (Novo Nordisk). See, everything's fine.
    - ribosometronome 1y ago
      >skyrocketed in the span of 75 years are immutable facts of life A number of them seem to have skyrocketed with quality of life and personal wealth. I suspect my ancestors were skinny not because they were educated on eating well but because they lacked the same access to food we have in modern society, especially super caloric ones. I don't super want to go back to an ice cream scarce world. Things like meat consumption are linked to colon cancer and most folk are unwilling to give that up or practice meat-light diets. People generally like smoking! Education campaigns got that down briefly but it was generally not because people didn't want to smoke, it's because they didn't want cancer. Vaping is clearly popular nowadays. Alcohol, too! The WHO says there is no safe amount of alcohol consumption and attributes lots of cancer to even light drinking. I suspect people would enjoy being able to regularly have a glass of wine or beer and not have it cost them their life.
  - logicchains 1y ago
    >Drugs to cure the diseases caused by your environment Humans have so far completely failed to develop any drug with minimal side effects to cure lifestyle diseases; it's magical to think AI can definitely do it.
    - astrange 1y ago
      Everything has side effects. In this case we have three pretty good interventions, Ozempic, FMT, and telling people to drink Coke Zero. The worst "side effect" is just that the first two are expensive. Oh, in this case GP seems to be including sunscreen as a treatment for lifestyle diseases. Pretty sure those don't have side effects, but Americans don't get the good ones.
      - ip26 1y ago
        including sunscreen as a treatment for lifestyle diseases HN, where "going outside" is considered a lifestyle.
    - nerevarthelame 1y ago
      Is your objection just over the word "cure"? Because hypertension, depression, arthritis, asthma are a few in an absurdly long list of lifestyle diseases that use drugs as a primary method of treatment.
- schmidtleonard 1y ago
  Bullshit. Heart disease and cancer (and a long tail of medical problems) cook up with age and kill ~everyone inside ~100 years. If you think that environment and exercise can fix this, show me the person who is 200 years old. We would have to 100x medical research spending before it was clearly overdone.
  - lm28469 1y ago
    You can 1000x the research if you want, a 50kg overweight person who doesn't exercise, drink alcohol and lives next to a highway is statistically fucked no matter what. You'd need straight up magic to undo the damages You're not going to fix lifestyle diseases with drugs, and lifestyle diseases are the leading cause of death
    - schmidtleonard 1y ago
      Show me the 200 year old person.
  - bdangubic 1y ago
    “inside 100 years” is a veeeeery large span… there is a huge difference if inside 100 is 45 or 95 :)
    - schmidtleonard 1y ago
      Obviously healthy habits prolong your life. Nobody argued otherwise. My contention is specifically with the idea that they matter to the exclusion of science and pharma. Healthy habits clearly hit a wall: if they didn't, we would have health and fitness gurus living to 200 and beyond by virtue of having a routine that could actually defeat cancer and heart disease. The absence of these 200 year old gurus indicates that no, 80% of cancer (and heart disease, everyone always forgets heart disease) cannot be avoided with diet and exercise. Hence, work on getting through the wall is valuable.
- conception 1y ago
  Yes. Let’s ignore 20% of people with cancer. That’s cool.

On the other hand, drug discovery sounds like it's a candidate for really benefitting from AI. To fuel AI model development, there maybe has to be all the garbage that comes with AI.

lm28469 1y ago

What drugs? The leading causes of death are routine induced, 80% of cancers are caused by your environment, &c. We have much better things to do with these billions

ribosometronome 1y ago
Drugs to cure the diseases caused by your environment. It's not as if people are suddenly going to be making perfect decisions (e.g. never getting a sunburn, not eating meat, avoiding sugary foods).
- lm28469 1y ago
  So all these things that skyrocketed in the span of 75 years are immutable facts of life, but magic drugs are somehow in the realm of possibilities? What's easier, educate your people and feed them well to build a strong and healthy nation OR let them rot and shovel billions to pharma corps in the hope of finding a magic cure?
  - astrange 1y ago
    Second one's easier. Technological improvements are always easier than social change. > shovel billions to pharma corps in the hope of finding a magic cure? What do you mean finding? We already found it (GLP-1 inhibitors). Ozempic is even owned by a nonprofit (Novo Nordisk). See, everything's fine.
  - ribosometronome 1y ago
    >skyrocketed in the span of 75 years are immutable facts of life A number of them seem to have skyrocketed with quality of life and personal wealth. I suspect my ancestors were skinny not because they were educated on eating well but because they lacked the same access to food we have in modern society, especially super caloric ones. I don't super want to go back to an ice cream scarce world. Things like meat consumption are linked to colon cancer and most folk are unwilling to give that up or practice meat-light diets. People generally like smoking! Education campaigns got that down briefly but it was generally not because people didn't want to smoke, it's because they didn't want cancer. Vaping is clearly popular nowadays. Alcohol, too! The WHO says there is no safe amount of alcohol consumption and attributes lots of cancer to even light drinking. I suspect people would enjoy being able to regularly have a glass of wine or beer and not have it cost them their life.
- logicchains 1y ago
  >Drugs to cure the diseases caused by your environment Humans have so far completely failed to develop any drug with minimal side effects to cure lifestyle diseases; it's magical to think AI can definitely do it.
  - astrange 1y ago
    Everything has side effects. In this case we have three pretty good interventions, Ozempic, FMT, and telling people to drink Coke Zero. The worst "side effect" is just that the first two are expensive. Oh, in this case GP seems to be including sunscreen as a treatment for lifestyle diseases. Pretty sure those don't have side effects, but Americans don't get the good ones.
    - ip26 1y ago
      including sunscreen as a treatment for lifestyle diseases HN, where "going outside" is considered a lifestyle.
  - nerevarthelame 1y ago
    Is your objection just over the word "cure"? Because hypertension, depression, arthritis, asthma are a few in an absurdly long list of lifestyle diseases that use drugs as a primary method of treatment.
schmidtleonard 1y ago
Bullshit. Heart disease and cancer (and a long tail of medical problems) cook up with age and kill ~everyone inside ~100 years. If you think that environment and exercise can fix this, show me the person who is 200 years old. We would have to 100x medical research spending before it was clearly overdone.
- lm28469 1y ago
  You can 1000x the research if you want, a 50kg overweight person who doesn't exercise, drink alcohol and lives next to a highway is statistically fucked no matter what. You'd need straight up magic to undo the damages You're not going to fix lifestyle diseases with drugs, and lifestyle diseases are the leading cause of death
  - schmidtleonard 1y ago
    Show me the 200 year old person.
- bdangubic 1y ago
  “inside 100 years” is a veeeeery large span… there is a huge difference if inside 100 is 45 or 95 :)
  - schmidtleonard 1y ago
    Obviously healthy habits prolong your life. Nobody argued otherwise. My contention is specifically with the idea that they matter to the exclusion of science and pharma. Healthy habits clearly hit a wall: if they didn't, we would have health and fitness gurus living to 200 and beyond by virtue of having a routine that could actually defeat cancer and heart disease. The absence of these 200 year old gurus indicates that no, 80% of cancer (and heart disease, everyone always forgets heart disease) cannot be avoided with diet and exercise. Hence, work on getting through the wall is valuable.
conception 1y ago
Yes. Let’s ignore 20% of people with cancer. That’s cool.