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This law was written in 2017 not 2022. The 2017 tax cuts were big cuts, but the way the government budget process works, they want to minimize the “appearance”

This law was written in 2017 not 2022. The 2017 tax cuts were big cuts, but the way the government budget process works, they want to minimize the “appearance” of deficit spending across a decade window. To do this, added a cliff in 2023 that would raise the taxes on tech companies to help offset the cost of their cuts. Side effect is that the next administration gets shitty economic news. Dec 2022 and January 2023 had lots of crazy layoffs, right on schedule. The reason it was tech companies specifically is that they’re super wealthy and could (ostensibly) afford it. If you’ll notice, the law exempted software development in oil and gas companies. It doesn’t hurt that tech companies and employees leaned strongly democrat in 2017. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks the tech companies accepted the 2022 hiring mania knowing layoffs were eminent.

wunused 1y ago
> Side effect is that the next administration gets shitty economic news. Doesn't this analysis assume that the 2017 administration expected to lose the 2020 election? I'm genuinely curious. What would have happened if Donald Trump had won the 2020 election? Do you think that the 2022 changes would still have come into effect, or do you think there would have been an effort to change them?
- lazide 1y ago
  Trump was beating the ‘stolen election’ drum well before the actual election. He definitely expected to lose. That said, if he hadn’t he could have just kicked the can down the road. It was a suckers bet for Biden to win, because any attempt to change this (and there wasn’t much) was going to get blocked. Just like Afghanistan.
- vineyardmike 1y ago
  I don’t really want to dive into politics too much, but no, this doesn’t require losing, but I do think he expected to lose. I think if trump won in 2020 he would have pushed for a new tax policy which preserved or even added cuts and “restarts” the cliff in the 2024 term. The “big beautiful bill” which recently passed also adds cliffs for additional stuff, and he’s claimed he wants to be elected in 2028.
- 8b16380d 1y ago
  They would have just extended them without the political baggage of keeping “trump cuts” around

wunused 1y ago

> Side effect is that the next administration gets shitty economic news. Doesn't this analysis assume that the 2017 administration expected to lose the 2020 election? I'm genuinely curious. What would have happened if Donald Trump had won the 2020 election? Do you think that the 2022 changes would still have come into effect, or do you think there would have been an effort to change them?

lazide 1y ago
Trump was beating the ‘stolen election’ drum well before the actual election. He definitely expected to lose. That said, if he hadn’t he could have just kicked the can down the road. It was a suckers bet for Biden to win, because any attempt to change this (and there wasn’t much) was going to get blocked. Just like Afghanistan.
vineyardmike 1y ago
I don’t really want to dive into politics too much, but no, this doesn’t require losing, but I do think he expected to lose. I think if trump won in 2020 he would have pushed for a new tax policy which preserved or even added cuts and “restarts” the cliff in the 2024 term. The “big beautiful bill” which recently passed also adds cliffs for additional stuff, and he’s claimed he wants to be elected in 2028.
8b16380d 1y ago
They would have just extended them without the political baggage of keeping “trump cuts” around