3 ms·

Think about it this way, if we still had a world's fair - what would even be on display? Improving some metrics isnt necessarily innovation

econ 1y ago
I've talked a lot with all kinds of people about new inventions and things people /we could do if we put our back under it. The responses are very cultural and nothing like what would be required to accomplish anything large. To give an example. We could make tubes with hot and/or cold water running from Siberia to the Sahara. There are plenty of design challenges in such project. The correct mindset is to take a broad outline calculating ROI so that you have an idea how much the state of the art needs to improve for it to be viable. Then you take the largest expenses or technical hurdles and ponder what could be done to ease the pain point. You can ponder the diameter vs the temperature vs the flow rate or pressure, the distance between the pumps etc etc, not to build anything but to train the brain noodle. If it wasn't a stupid idea people would be doing it already. Many countries, if not all, had a period where great things were done. After that comes defeatism nihilism and a preference for talking about tarifs, Epstein, 911, etc With tiny improvements everything shifts around. The steam engine had many challenges that have been solved long ago. Imagine that the 100 mph carburator didn't happen because you lose much of the throttle control. How silly this excuse is in the age of hybrids? It's pretty much a non-argument.
- econ 1y ago
  Oh, I forgot, you aren't supposed to talk about this.
athenot 1y ago
We still have world fairs, the current one is in Japan. A friend of mine just came back from seeing it and it's apparently quite impressive. https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/overview/purpose/ https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/overview/purpose/
- throw0101d 1y ago
  Will what was on display: * reduce infant or child mortality? * reduce maternal mortality? * increase average life spans (by, say, double-digit percentages)? * increase health or quality of life such that people at the end of their lives are more mobile, and perhaps have less onerous medical conditions? * produce more food in the same amount of land? * produce more food with fewer inputs (energy, labour, fertilizer, water)? * produce more manufactured things with fewer inputs (energy, labour, metals)? * allow for faster transportation with more efficiency? It's all very well to invent something, but in what ways does it improve people's lives: > Fortunately Gordon indicates that it is not an end to innovation, but a decline in the usefulness of future inventions that is taking place. Documenting the impressive rise in standards of living between 1920 and 1970, with rising TFP, he claimed that it will be more difficult than before to replicate such improvements in advanced countries like the United States. In the earlier period, the American standard of living doubled every 35 years; in the future this doubling (for most people) may take a century or more. Moreover, the newer innovations do not seem to be benefitting all segments of society, which in turn reflects rising inequality in the advanced countries. > Gordon’s thesis raises many questions: Is he correct in saying that the era of rising labor productivity associated with innovation and technological change over? Will the digital economy imply a new rise in the standard of living? From a development perspective, what implications does his thesis have for middle- and low-income countries? * https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/declining-pace-innovation-lowering-productivity-growth https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/declining-pac...
  - wasabi991011 1y ago
    > Will what was on display: ... Well yes, they're aiming for those goals. On the grandparent comment's link, you'll notice that they mention striving for the UN's sustainabile development goals, which includes all of that (+ others like gender equality). Or on this link about theme weeks[1] which includes more of the same. [1] https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/sponsorship/theme-weeks/ https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/sponsorship/theme-weeks/
    - throw0101d 1y ago

econ 1y ago

I've talked a lot with all kinds of people about new inventions and things people /we could do if we put our back under it. The responses are very cultural and nothing like what would be required to accomplish anything large. To give an example. We could make tubes with hot and/or cold water running from Siberia to the Sahara. There are plenty of design challenges in such project. The correct mindset is to take a broad outline calculating ROI so that you have an idea how much the state of the art needs to improve for it to be viable. Then you take the largest expenses or technical hurdles and ponder what could be done to ease the pain point. You can ponder the diameter vs the temperature vs the flow rate or pressure, the distance between the pumps etc etc, not to build anything but to train the brain noodle. If it wasn't a stupid idea people would be doing it already. Many countries, if not all, had a period where great things were done. After that comes defeatism nihilism and a preference for talking about tarifs, Epstein, 911, etc With tiny improvements everything shifts around. The steam engine had many challenges that have been solved long ago. Imagine that the 100 mph carburator didn't happen because you lose much of the throttle control. How silly this excuse is in the age of hybrids? It's pretty much a non-argument.

econ 1y ago
Oh, I forgot, you aren't supposed to talk about this.

athenot 1y ago

We still have world fairs, the current one is in Japan. A friend of mine just came back from seeing it and it's apparently quite impressive. https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/overview/purpose/ https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/overview/purpose/

throw0101d 1y ago
Will what was on display: * reduce infant or child mortality? * reduce maternal mortality? * increase average life spans (by, say, double-digit percentages)? * increase health or quality of life such that people at the end of their lives are more mobile, and perhaps have less onerous medical conditions? * produce more food in the same amount of land? * produce more food with fewer inputs (energy, labour, fertilizer, water)? * produce more manufactured things with fewer inputs (energy, labour, metals)? * allow for faster transportation with more efficiency? It's all very well to invent something, but in what ways does it improve people's lives: > Fortunately Gordon indicates that it is not an end to innovation, but a decline in the usefulness of future inventions that is taking place. Documenting the impressive rise in standards of living between 1920 and 1970, with rising TFP, he claimed that it will be more difficult than before to replicate such improvements in advanced countries like the United States. In the earlier period, the American standard of living doubled every 35 years; in the future this doubling (for most people) may take a century or more. Moreover, the newer innovations do not seem to be benefitting all segments of society, which in turn reflects rising inequality in the advanced countries. > Gordon’s thesis raises many questions: Is he correct in saying that the era of rising labor productivity associated with innovation and technological change over? Will the digital economy imply a new rise in the standard of living? From a development perspective, what implications does his thesis have for middle- and low-income countries? * https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/declining-pace-innovation-lowering-productivity-growth https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/declining-pac...
- wasabi991011 1y ago
  > Will what was on display: ... Well yes, they're aiming for those goals. On the grandparent comment's link, you'll notice that they mention striving for the UN's sustainabile development goals, which includes all of that (+ others like gender equality). Or on this link about theme weeks[1] which includes more of the same. [1] https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/sponsorship/theme-weeks/ https://www.expo2025.or.jp/en/sponsorship/theme-weeks/
  - throw0101d 1y ago