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Investors are just people. They don’t know what superintelligence would mean any more than you or I do. Some will guess right, some will guess wrong.
by brookst 1y ago
Investors are just people. They don’t know what superintelligence would mean any more than you or I do. Some will guess right, some will guess wrong.
- ghc 1y agoI wish more people would understand this. VC is just professional guessing. But you're not guessing impacts, you're guessing future value of company stock compared to its value at time of offer. Some people are really, really, really good at it. That doesn't make them any more qualified to assess the future impact of a new technology than a university PR office.
- torginus 1y agoI wasn't assuming they'd be able to predict what superintelligence (or any other outcome) would do to society, I was assuming they'd be able to predict what it will do to the value of their investments. I don't think it'd be unreasonable to expect them to able to do a ROI calculation over some timeframe. For example, it might be very well next to worthless, if anyone can build superintelligence once the right algorithms are discovered and they run their GPUs for long enough, they'll have to sell it at cost.