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The current economic order is good. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.

The current economic order is good. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

mathiaspoint 1y ago
Go look at the labor participation chart. It's bad enough people are giving up.
- twoodfin 1y ago
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Minus the Covid blip, not lately!
  - mathiaspoint 1y ago
    That's a result of secular growth in female participation. If you remove that it's almost monotonically declining.
    - twoodfin 1y ago
      “If you remove the workers who are showing increasing participation, the labor force participation rate is declining.” Sure.
jmyeet 1y ago
Well that's one interpretation of those charts. Here's another: Real income has barely increased since 1980, as in 10% or less. You may look at that and say well that's good because it's real income but it isn't. There are substitution issues with CPI. The housing component is lagging, relies on "in-place" rent and doesn't really reflect quality or size or housing affordability (just rents). Look at other measures, like homelessness increasing 18% in 2024, consumer confidence and how for the last 20 years people have flocked to any political candidate that promises meaningful change, from Obama to Bernie to Trump to Zohran. HN in particular and tech in general is a bubble. It insulates you to a large degree from the median experience. We are profoundly privileged. But privilege convinces some that everything is meritocracy when each of us is profoundly fortunate to be where we are (eg being born in a Western country, having a relatively stable family life, having access to education, speaking English and so on). It's why the ZIP code you were born in is possibly the biggest predictor of your success [1]. [1]: https://www.lisc.org/our-resources/resource/opportunity-atlas-shows-effect-childhood-zip-codes-adult-success/ https://www.lisc.org/our-resources/resource/opportunity-atla...
- twoodfin 1y ago
  Real income has barely increased since 1980, as in 10% or less. Real median household income is up over 36% since 1984 (the furthest back the linked chart goes: 1984 was in the middle of an economic expansion, so you’d expect a comparison with four years earlier to look even better). And CPI has just as many potential substitution issues the other way: Hedonic adjustments are made, but it’s effectively impossible to quantify the value of decades worth of novel and improved goods that simply didn’t exist decades earlier. HN in particular and tech in general is a bubble. It insulates you to a large degree from the median experience. I linked decades of numbers about the median household, which you then numerically misrepresented. Bubble, pop thyself.
immibis 1y ago
You're using inflation-adjusted metrics, but prices keep rising faster than inflation, and wages keep rising slower than inflation. (Personally, my preferred measurement of inflation is "how much prices go up", but economists don't agree with me)
- twoodfin 1y ago
  Prices cannot rise faster than inflation by the same metric. By definition the rise of prices—by whatever debatable metric—is inflation. Wages have been rising faster than inflation, that’s link #2.
  - immibis 1y ago
    Well, I look at the inflation numbers, and then I look at the prices, and I notice that prices consistently rise faster than inflation. And I think that observed reality outweighs any vague theoretical justification. But I'm not an economist. I notice that economics seems to be the only "science" where if the theory and reality disagree, it means the reality is wrong.

mathiaspoint 1y ago

Go look at the labor participation chart. It's bad enough people are giving up.

twoodfin 1y ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Minus the Covid blip, not lately!
- mathiaspoint 1y ago
  That's a result of secular growth in female participation. If you remove that it's almost monotonically declining.
  - twoodfin 1y ago
    “If you remove the workers who are showing increasing participation, the labor force participation rate is declining.” Sure.

jmyeet 1y ago

Well that's one interpretation of those charts. Here's another: Real income has barely increased since 1980, as in 10% or less. You may look at that and say well that's good because it's real income but it isn't. There are substitution issues with CPI. The housing component is lagging, relies on "in-place" rent and doesn't really reflect quality or size or housing affordability (just rents). Look at other measures, like homelessness increasing 18% in 2024, consumer confidence and how for the last 20 years people have flocked to any political candidate that promises meaningful change, from Obama to Bernie to Trump to Zohran. HN in particular and tech in general is a bubble. It insulates you to a large degree from the median experience. We are profoundly privileged. But privilege convinces some that everything is meritocracy when each of us is profoundly fortunate to be where we are (eg being born in a Western country, having a relatively stable family life, having access to education, speaking English and so on). It's why the ZIP code you were born in is possibly the biggest predictor of your success [1]. [1]: https://www.lisc.org/our-resources/resource/opportunity-atlas-shows-effect-childhood-zip-codes-adult-success/ https://www.lisc.org/our-resources/resource/opportunity-atla...

twoodfin 1y ago
Real income has barely increased since 1980, as in 10% or less. Real median household income is up over 36% since 1984 (the furthest back the linked chart goes: 1984 was in the middle of an economic expansion, so you’d expect a comparison with four years earlier to look even better). And CPI has just as many potential substitution issues the other way: Hedonic adjustments are made, but it’s effectively impossible to quantify the value of decades worth of novel and improved goods that simply didn’t exist decades earlier. HN in particular and tech in general is a bubble. It insulates you to a large degree from the median experience. I linked decades of numbers about the median household, which you then numerically misrepresented. Bubble, pop thyself.

immibis 1y ago

You're using inflation-adjusted metrics, but prices keep rising faster than inflation, and wages keep rising slower than inflation. (Personally, my preferred measurement of inflation is "how much prices go up", but economists don't agree with me)

twoodfin 1y ago
Prices cannot rise faster than inflation by the same metric. By definition the rise of prices—by whatever debatable metric—is inflation. Wages have been rising faster than inflation, that’s link #2.
- immibis 1y ago
  Well, I look at the inflation numbers, and then I look at the prices, and I notice that prices consistently rise faster than inflation. And I think that observed reality outweighs any vague theoretical justification. But I'm not an economist. I notice that economics seems to be the only "science" where if the theory and reality disagree, it means the reality is wrong.