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Unemployment is a loaded statistic anyway. I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job. They're likely working in a restaurant or i

Unemployment is a loaded statistic anyway. I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job. They're likely working in a restaurant or in retail which is technically employed. My qualitative view on the job market right now is this line holds true > But it is a bad time to be a job seeker—especially if you are young.

what 1y ago
If they’re working at a restaurant or retail, they’re not counted as unemployed? Unless they’re working under the table.
- conductr 1y ago
  They're underemployed, but employed. So unemployment remains rosy.
astrange 1y ago
Unemployment comes from surveys (the CPS) where they call people and ask if they're employed. So the answer to questions like "do Uber drivers count as employed" is, it's up to them. There's other questions about full-time or part-time, or multiple jobs. (Multiple jobs are interesting because you'd think they'd belong to overworked underpaid poor people. But they're not really associated with that, and they go down in recessions since that's when you have no jobs.)
intended 1y ago
Unemployment here is being used in its capacity as a trend line. It’s not loaded in the sense you are considering. From what I recall, recent graduates would not be working in retail, but currently looking for roles.
pjc50 1y ago
> I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job This kind of attitude - I don't like your statistics so I'm going to reject them and replace them with imagination - makes technocratic government very difficult.
- conductr 1y ago
  I'm not making blind assumptions. I've studies unemployment statistics and aware of how they exclude things and can lag and generally are kind of rig the calculation. I'm just here making a passing comment, so I'm not going to lay all the evidence out there with citations, but feel free to have a LLM tell you all about it. I'm also aware there is another statistic called underemployment which is what I described, so no, I did not replace anything with my imagination. I just don't have any source of data to say exactly what is what right now, but based on a lot of signals I'm seeing (knowing a few recent grads, knowing how many of my mid-career peers are not hiring and actually looking for additional efficiencies, having a few friends finding it impossible to find work even with experience, etc) - I feel/assume the stat as reported is not telling the whole story and the original article was trying to shed light on what's going on. Sometimes boots on the ground conversations is the best way to know the truth today versus just looking at data/stats.

what 1y ago

If they’re working at a restaurant or retail, they’re not counted as unemployed? Unless they’re working under the table.

conductr 1y ago
They're underemployed, but employed. So unemployment remains rosy.

astrange 1y ago

Unemployment comes from surveys (the CPS) where they call people and ask if they're employed. So the answer to questions like "do Uber drivers count as employed" is, it's up to them. There's other questions about full-time or part-time, or multiple jobs. (Multiple jobs are interesting because you'd think they'd belong to overworked underpaid poor people. But they're not really associated with that, and they go down in recessions since that's when you have no jobs.)

intended 1y ago

Unemployment here is being used in its capacity as a trend line. It’s not loaded in the sense you are considering. From what I recall, recent graduates would not be working in retail, but currently looking for roles.

pjc50 1y ago

> I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job This kind of attitude - I don't like your statistics so I'm going to reject them and replace them with imagination - makes technocratic government very difficult.

conductr 1y ago
I'm not making blind assumptions. I've studies unemployment statistics and aware of how they exclude things and can lag and generally are kind of rig the calculation. I'm just here making a passing comment, so I'm not going to lay all the evidence out there with citations, but feel free to have a LLM tell you all about it. I'm also aware there is another statistic called underemployment which is what I described, so no, I did not replace anything with my imagination. I just don't have any source of data to say exactly what is what right now, but based on a lot of signals I'm seeing (knowing a few recent grads, knowing how many of my mid-career peers are not hiring and actually looking for additional efficiencies, having a few friends finding it impossible to find work even with experience, etc) - I feel/assume the stat as reported is not telling the whole story and the original article was trying to shed light on what's going on. Sometimes boots on the ground conversations is the best way to know the truth today versus just looking at data/stats.