5 ms·
1. Suppose you have a chart of the total past and future history of human population. 2. Cover up the chart so only the data from the past to present day is vi
by nancyminusone 1y ago
1. Suppose you have a chart of the total past and future history of human population.
2. Cover up the chart so only the data from the past to present day is visible.
3. Note that most humans in that subset exist near or at the present. You are one of these people today, it should make sense for you to be born in one of the densest parts of the graph.
4. Now uncover the graph. If there are trillions of humans in the future, it seems almost impossibly unlikely that you would born in a part of the graph with "so few" humans as today, and not in the far future.
Therefore, you must conclude that the actual graph rapidly drops to zero in the near future. QED.
This "doomsday argument" is a pretty shit one, but not worse than others I've seen arguing the opposite.