4 ms·

I mostly agree, except the pariah state part. Russia is hedging that the "pariah state" label will wear off pretty quickly. The current US government has as re

by sjw987 1y ago

I mostly agree, except the pariah state part. Russia is hedging that the "pariah state" label will wear off pretty quickly. The current US government has as recently as March floated the idea of normalising business ties, and constantly flip-flops it's position. However, the biggest loser has definitely been Europe (including Britain). High energy prices have cascaded the cost of living crisis, which in turn has led to a rightward shift in politics. As a continent, we are unprepared for any sort of defence, having used the US as a backstop for years and now the US constantly toys with the idea of dropping NATO support. Alone, we don't have enough manpower, ammunition, and we haven't been keeping up with the evolution of modern warfare (drones and related technology) taking place in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

libertine 1y ago
If you think Europe is the biggest loser, you need to dig a bit deeper on the state of Russia... I might be wrong, but there's no recovery from this blunder for many, many years - if it manages to stay a Federation, that's yet to be seen, but my guess is China will take a chunk out of Russia eventually. Remember Russia in 3 years had: - 1 Military coup; - Lost 50% of the Black Sea Fleet and it's now unusable; - 1.000.000+ casualties (dead and severely wounded) - Mass exodus of qualified young people; - Lost Military allies from CSTO and rendered the alliance into a joke; - Completely lost presence in the Middle East (I don't see how they will recover from it); - Losing influence in neighboring countries; The list goes on, like demographic collapse, etc So, I find it hard to see Europe as the loser here; at worst, Europe is doing "ok".
- sjw987 1y ago
  Europe's entire future is on the line right now. Forget many years.. Higher energy prices, and increased defence spending (from a low starting point) to meet the new US governments requirements are exacerbating the cost of living crisis continent wide. Europe already wasn't innovating, and is now losing the small amount of industry it does have, to energy prices, to China's entry into EV production, and EU regulation. The demands to spend more on our own defence by the US administration comes from a US administration which has flirted with the idea of not even defending NATO. The cost of living crisis, coupled with "AI" (LLM) is hollowing out an already pretty hollow service economy across Europe, and is creating disillusionment which is causing Europeans to shift to either extreme side of the political spectrum. In my country, the UK, Reform, a politically inept and untested party is currently leading in the polls for the next election. This party, as well as many like it in Europe, is even leading in the polls despite well known Russian political influence in them. On top of this, the demographic crisis, while not made worse by tons of dead men sent off to war and exodus, is still affecting Europe and the only reason it isn't notable to many people is due to immigration filling the gaps. Immigration, which is lowering wages and in many peoples eyes, changing their cultural landscape for the worse, increasing their likelihood in voting for fringe political parties. As much as Russia might lose from this war, they'll probably rebuild their army to a higher degree than European forces are right now. We hear constantly about ammunition and weapons shortages across Europe, failure to meet requirements for what Ukraine needs to fight back, and a general unwillingness from the population to even fight. Russia has oil, gas, and mineral wealth, which will always be of importance to Europe whenever this war does end. Europe is so reliant, that whatever words are spoken, the EU has spent more on Russian energy than it has sent in aid to Ukraine.
  - libertine 1y ago
    > Higher energy prices, and increased defence spending Energy prices are going down, and have been going down consistently ( https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil ) and the new US Admin wants them even lower, and they're not alone. So that's settled. Defense spending will also be met with investment, jobs, etc. But if you think Europe is having it bad in terms of using taxpayers money to fund wars... what do you think is happening to Russian taxpayers money, with a much smaller economy? > The cost of living crisis, coupled with "AI" (LLM) is hollowing out an already pretty hollow service economy across Europe, and is creating disillusionment which is causing Europeans to shift to either extreme side of the political spectrum. Inflation is affecting everyone. Not Europe in any particular way. Again, if you think that's bad for Europe, you look at Russia is being completely destroyed with inflation. I don't even think they're reporting the fake numbers of how bad things are, every quarter they prohibit more data from coming out... > On top of this, the demographic crisis, while not made worse by tons of dead men sent off to war and exodus, is still affecting Europe and the only reason it isn't notable to many people is due to immigration filling the gaps. Again, if you think that's a problem in Europe... how does Russia compare with qualified people leaving, 1.000.000 young men casualties, low birth rates, aging population? Europe isn't speedrunning its demographic collapse like Russia is. > As much as Russia might lose from this war, they'll probably rebuild their army to a higher degree than European forces are right now. So, to sum it up, you highlighted a few points that are by many orders of magnitude worse in Russia. Even counting energy, since Ukraine has been taking out distribution and refining capacity (and my guess is that it will get worse) - somehow you still think Europe is in a worse shape and position. And a lot of your claims don't make much logical sense: "Europe is in bad shape, they can't even properly help Ukraine", in a context of Russia with 1.000.000+ casualties, max military production capacity, using North Korean Army help, and failing to make any meaningful gains at heavy costs... I'm not even stating the fact that Russia will inevitably have to surrender that territory back to Ukraine, in the future anyway, because no country will ever recognize their occupied territory as part of Russia. So to sum up your "Europe is unable, and Russia is giving their max" scope doesn't help your case at all, just shows that Russia has massive unrecoverable problems, even trying with everything they have... You ended up supporting what I said. Europe is OK, while Russia can collapse at any moment - that's being on the line. Just to bring you back to reality: no European country had part of their military going on a straight line to its capital to take down the government, and that happened to Russia around 2 years ago - that's not a good sign.
ivan_gammel 1y ago
On the contrary, Europe (I mean EU, Britain is a different story) is probably the biggest and the only true winner. Russia may get what it wants, but Europe already got something from it too. 1. Major influx of workforce - many Ukrainians do not intend to go home according to polls 2. Push to a stronger union less dependent on America for defense 3. Push to less dependency on Russian oil and gas (yes, gas could have helped with transition to cleaner energy, but we may be doing well even without it) Eventually - soon enough - Russian gas will be back. But Europe will come from this war stronger both militarily and politically and more united. America is clear loser: what a mess it has become. Not being able to do anything with this conflict, it demonstrated that nuclear non-proliferation is dead. Nobody will give up their nuclear weapons now as Ukraine did in 1990s in exchange for empty promises of security guarantees. Ukraine may have won some political independence at a very high cost and with some strings attached, but it has lost one third of its population and significant part of its territory - forever. And it is likely that it’s not going to get NATO membership. Was all of it worth it?.. Russia is an interesting case here. It‘s going to win. Sanctions don’t work. Foreign reserves are all time high. The economy is suffering mainly from self-inflicted damage, not for external reasons: enormous military budget and insufficient workforce (not least because Central Asian workers are hesitant to work in Russia now and their number was bigger than war casualties). Western brands left the country temporarily and many will come back. It has acquired new territories and will be actively spending there on reconstruction — that’s going to add extra points to GDP. It is hard to say, if the combined economic outcome will be positive or negative. Was it worth it?… It depends who answers. Politically it’s more stable than ever with national-conservatives in power, which is very important, because by 2030s it will be busy with the transition of power (and certainly not attacking NATO in Baltics as some delusional hotheads think). When the war ends it will be able to shift spending to social topics, which + the victory will give the necessary political capital for the transition.

by sjw987 1y ago

libertine 1y ago

If you think Europe is the biggest loser, you need to dig a bit deeper on the state of Russia... I might be wrong, but there's no recovery from this blunder for many, many years - if it manages to stay a Federation, that's yet to be seen, but my guess is China will take a chunk out of Russia eventually. Remember Russia in 3 years had: - 1 Military coup; - Lost 50% of the Black Sea Fleet and it's now unusable; - 1.000.000+ casualties (dead and severely wounded) - Mass exodus of qualified young people; - Lost Military allies from CSTO and rendered the alliance into a joke; - Completely lost presence in the Middle East (I don't see how they will recover from it); - Losing influence in neighboring countries; The list goes on, like demographic collapse, etc So, I find it hard to see Europe as the loser here; at worst, Europe is doing "ok".

sjw987 1y ago
Europe's entire future is on the line right now. Forget many years.. Higher energy prices, and increased defence spending (from a low starting point) to meet the new US governments requirements are exacerbating the cost of living crisis continent wide. Europe already wasn't innovating, and is now losing the small amount of industry it does have, to energy prices, to China's entry into EV production, and EU regulation. The demands to spend more on our own defence by the US administration comes from a US administration which has flirted with the idea of not even defending NATO. The cost of living crisis, coupled with "AI" (LLM) is hollowing out an already pretty hollow service economy across Europe, and is creating disillusionment which is causing Europeans to shift to either extreme side of the political spectrum. In my country, the UK, Reform, a politically inept and untested party is currently leading in the polls for the next election. This party, as well as many like it in Europe, is even leading in the polls despite well known Russian political influence in them. On top of this, the demographic crisis, while not made worse by tons of dead men sent off to war and exodus, is still affecting Europe and the only reason it isn't notable to many people is due to immigration filling the gaps. Immigration, which is lowering wages and in many peoples eyes, changing their cultural landscape for the worse, increasing their likelihood in voting for fringe political parties. As much as Russia might lose from this war, they'll probably rebuild their army to a higher degree than European forces are right now. We hear constantly about ammunition and weapons shortages across Europe, failure to meet requirements for what Ukraine needs to fight back, and a general unwillingness from the population to even fight. Russia has oil, gas, and mineral wealth, which will always be of importance to Europe whenever this war does end. Europe is so reliant, that whatever words are spoken, the EU has spent more on Russian energy than it has sent in aid to Ukraine.
- libertine 1y ago
  > Higher energy prices, and increased defence spending Energy prices are going down, and have been going down consistently ( https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil ) and the new US Admin wants them even lower, and they're not alone. So that's settled. Defense spending will also be met with investment, jobs, etc. But if you think Europe is having it bad in terms of using taxpayers money to fund wars... what do you think is happening to Russian taxpayers money, with a much smaller economy? > The cost of living crisis, coupled with "AI" (LLM) is hollowing out an already pretty hollow service economy across Europe, and is creating disillusionment which is causing Europeans to shift to either extreme side of the political spectrum. Inflation is affecting everyone. Not Europe in any particular way. Again, if you think that's bad for Europe, you look at Russia is being completely destroyed with inflation. I don't even think they're reporting the fake numbers of how bad things are, every quarter they prohibit more data from coming out... > On top of this, the demographic crisis, while not made worse by tons of dead men sent off to war and exodus, is still affecting Europe and the only reason it isn't notable to many people is due to immigration filling the gaps. Again, if you think that's a problem in Europe... how does Russia compare with qualified people leaving, 1.000.000 young men casualties, low birth rates, aging population? Europe isn't speedrunning its demographic collapse like Russia is. > As much as Russia might lose from this war, they'll probably rebuild their army to a higher degree than European forces are right now. So, to sum it up, you highlighted a few points that are by many orders of magnitude worse in Russia. Even counting energy, since Ukraine has been taking out distribution and refining capacity (and my guess is that it will get worse) - somehow you still think Europe is in a worse shape and position. And a lot of your claims don't make much logical sense: "Europe is in bad shape, they can't even properly help Ukraine", in a context of Russia with 1.000.000+ casualties, max military production capacity, using North Korean Army help, and failing to make any meaningful gains at heavy costs... I'm not even stating the fact that Russia will inevitably have to surrender that territory back to Ukraine, in the future anyway, because no country will ever recognize their occupied territory as part of Russia. So to sum up your "Europe is unable, and Russia is giving their max" scope doesn't help your case at all, just shows that Russia has massive unrecoverable problems, even trying with everything they have... You ended up supporting what I said. Europe is OK, while Russia can collapse at any moment - that's being on the line. Just to bring you back to reality: no European country had part of their military going on a straight line to its capital to take down the government, and that happened to Russia around 2 years ago - that's not a good sign.

ivan_gammel 1y ago

On the contrary, Europe (I mean EU, Britain is a different story) is probably the biggest and the only true winner. Russia may get what it wants, but Europe already got something from it too. 1. Major influx of workforce - many Ukrainians do not intend to go home according to polls 2. Push to a stronger union less dependent on America for defense 3. Push to less dependency on Russian oil and gas (yes, gas could have helped with transition to cleaner energy, but we may be doing well even without it) Eventually - soon enough - Russian gas will be back. But Europe will come from this war stronger both militarily and politically and more united. America is clear loser: what a mess it has become. Not being able to do anything with this conflict, it demonstrated that nuclear non-proliferation is dead. Nobody will give up their nuclear weapons now as Ukraine did in 1990s in exchange for empty promises of security guarantees. Ukraine may have won some political independence at a very high cost and with some strings attached, but it has lost one third of its population and significant part of its territory - forever. And it is likely that it’s not going to get NATO membership. Was all of it worth it?.. Russia is an interesting case here. It‘s going to win. Sanctions don’t work. Foreign reserves are all time high. The economy is suffering mainly from self-inflicted damage, not for external reasons: enormous military budget and insufficient workforce (not least because Central Asian workers are hesitant to work in Russia now and their number was bigger than war casualties). Western brands left the country temporarily and many will come back. It has acquired new territories and will be actively spending there on reconstruction — that’s going to add extra points to GDP. It is hard to say, if the combined economic outcome will be positive or negative. Was it worth it?… It depends who answers. Politically it’s more stable than ever with national-conservatives in power, which is very important, because by 2030s it will be busy with the transition of power (and certainly not attacking NATO in Baltics as some delusional hotheads think). When the war ends it will be able to shift spending to social topics, which + the victory will give the necessary political capital for the transition.