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With more than 1.2M dead or out of service injured, Russia is spent. It's why North Korean troops had to be deployed. All they can effectivley do, until they

by b112 1y ago

With more than 1.2M dead or out of service injured, Russia is spent. It's why North Korean troops had to be deployed. All they can effectivley do, until they grow new soldiers, is defense. Sure they can bomb from afar. But even of they take the Ukraine now, they have no force to hold it with.

v5v3 1y ago
They were never going to achieve a full takeover of Ukraine though. Large mass size and the people wouldn't accept them.
- pjc50 1y ago
  They came extremely close with the decpaitation attack. It worked back when the USSR invaded Czechslovakia. What they weren't expecting was effective resistance, so now it's no longer possible.
- sofixa 1y ago
  That's why RIA had an article announcing the successful taking of Ukraine ready and published it by mistake, right: https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20... Right? Right? Putin totally only planned a multi-year stalemate where he lost his best troops on a dash to capture Kyiv. Totally!
  - trhway 1y ago
    Such familiar words there - "Putin took upon himself the historic responsibility to solve the Ukrainian question"
- SJC_Hacker 1y ago
  I don't think they anticipated a Nazi/Imperial Japan style completely takeover I believe their plan was to capture Kyiv and install puppet government, and have the military collapse into factions and unable to coordinate effectively as a conventional force. Paramilitary groups would break out (such as the Azov units, etc.) Ukraine would then degrade into civil war, especially along an east-west line. But at least, it would be dysfunctional and unable to join EU or NATO. And they would be able to control enough to extract some value out of the country (e.g. natural resources). But they never really care about establishing peace and prosperity there.
CapricornNoble 1y ago
> With more than 1.2M dead or out of service injured, Russia is spent > All they can effectivley do, until they grow new soldiers, is defense. I'm genuinely curious what your information diet/sources looks like that would lead you to make such statements. According to Ukrainian sources, Russian end strength in Ukraine continues to increase and they are maintaining a strategic reserve of personnel as well: https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-grouping-in-ukraine-by-150-000-soldiers-in-2025-ukraines-official-says/ https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-groupin... The Russian military plans to increase its grouping in Ukraine by 150,000 soldiers in 2025, equivalent to around 15 motorized infantry divisions, Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa said on April 3, Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne reported. "Their formation is ongoing. The Russians have no problems with recruiting personnel now..." https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/syrskyi-warns-russia-stockpiling-reserves-1750581992.html https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/syrskyi-warns-russia-stockpi... "Moreover, Russia maintains an additional 121,000 troops in its strategic reserve—comprising 13 divisions, as well as various regiments and brigades—that could be deployed to the battlefield if necessary." "This means their army grows by an average of 8,000 to 9,000 soldiers every month," the Commander-in-Chief noted. As for Russia only being able to defend, how do you square that with this Finnish analysis group's tracking of Russian territorial control rates increasing every month this year? https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1l30kb4/ua_pov_finnish_analysis_group_reports_russia/ https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1l30kb... That data roughly matches one of Reddit's most prolific meta-analysts, who mostly uses Suriyak data (the most reputable Russian mapper): https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1lpspnu/ru_pov_territory_change_statistics_for_june_2025/ https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1lpspn...
- b112 1y ago
  They had to withdraw from Syria, due to a loss of ability to project power. That's how desperate they are for troops. They removed troops, planes, closed bases. Almost immediately Syria fell. Israel and the US's stance with Iran, was something not as plausible when Russian strength existed in the region. Russia complained and threatened, but naturally nothing has come of it. They have no capacity to do anything, or project power. There is no Russian strength in the Middle East any more. Why? They cannot extend their power beyond their borders. This is doubly unfortunate for Russia, as Iran was, I repeat was sending massive amounts of shells, drones, and more to Russia. For some odd reason, they've stopped (sarcasm). Using reserve troops is what Russia could do if their back was to the wall. They need troops in country, or there will be a revolt within. Remember, Russia is not a democracy, but a totalitarian state controlled by a dictator with an iron fist. If their 'reserves' are drawn down too far, there will be insurgency. Hiring mercenaries (in the article aka contract soldiers) from anywhere including China, isn't the same as getting seasoned, loyal troops. And it doesn't discount what I'm saying. They have lost their capacity to project power, and are now relying upon mercenaries to shore up their troop levels. They're spent.

by b112 1y ago

v5v3 1y ago

They were never going to achieve a full takeover of Ukraine though. Large mass size and the people wouldn't accept them.

pjc50 1y ago
They came extremely close with the decpaitation attack. It worked back when the USSR invaded Czechslovakia. What they weren't expecting was effective resistance, so now it's no longer possible.
sofixa 1y ago
That's why RIA had an article announcing the successful taking of Ukraine ready and published it by mistake, right: https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20... Right? Right? Putin totally only planned a multi-year stalemate where he lost his best troops on a dash to capture Kyiv. Totally!
- trhway 1y ago
  Such familiar words there - "Putin took upon himself the historic responsibility to solve the Ukrainian question"
SJC_Hacker 1y ago
I don't think they anticipated a Nazi/Imperial Japan style completely takeover I believe their plan was to capture Kyiv and install puppet government, and have the military collapse into factions and unable to coordinate effectively as a conventional force. Paramilitary groups would break out (such as the Azov units, etc.) Ukraine would then degrade into civil war, especially along an east-west line. But at least, it would be dysfunctional and unable to join EU or NATO. And they would be able to control enough to extract some value out of the country (e.g. natural resources). But they never really care about establishing peace and prosperity there.

CapricornNoble 1y ago

> With more than 1.2M dead or out of service injured, Russia is spent > All they can effectivley do, until they grow new soldiers, is defense. I'm genuinely curious what your information diet/sources looks like that would lead you to make such statements. According to Ukrainian sources, Russian end strength in Ukraine continues to increase and they are maintaining a strategic reserve of personnel as well: https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-grouping-in-ukraine-by-150-000-soldiers-in-2025-ukraines-official-says/ https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-groupin... The Russian military plans to increase its grouping in Ukraine by 150,000 soldiers in 2025, equivalent to around 15 motorized infantry divisions, Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa said on April 3, Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne reported. "Their formation is ongoing. The Russians have no problems with recruiting personnel now..." https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/syrskyi-warns-russia-stockpiling-reserves-1750581992.html https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/syrskyi-warns-russia-stockpi... "Moreover, Russia maintains an additional 121,000 troops in its strategic reserve—comprising 13 divisions, as well as various regiments and brigades—that could be deployed to the battlefield if necessary." "This means their army grows by an average of 8,000 to 9,000 soldiers every month," the Commander-in-Chief noted. As for Russia only being able to defend, how do you square that with this Finnish analysis group's tracking of Russian territorial control rates increasing every month this year? https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1l30kb4/ua_pov_finnish_analysis_group_reports_russia/ https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1l30kb... That data roughly matches one of Reddit's most prolific meta-analysts, who mostly uses Suriyak data (the most reputable Russian mapper): https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1lpspnu/ru_pov_territory_change_statistics_for_june_2025/ https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1lpspn...

b112 1y ago
They had to withdraw from Syria, due to a loss of ability to project power. That's how desperate they are for troops. They removed troops, planes, closed bases. Almost immediately Syria fell. Israel and the US's stance with Iran, was something not as plausible when Russian strength existed in the region. Russia complained and threatened, but naturally nothing has come of it. They have no capacity to do anything, or project power. There is no Russian strength in the Middle East any more. Why? They cannot extend their power beyond their borders. This is doubly unfortunate for Russia, as Iran was, I repeat was sending massive amounts of shells, drones, and more to Russia. For some odd reason, they've stopped (sarcasm). Using reserve troops is what Russia could do if their back was to the wall. They need troops in country, or there will be a revolt within. Remember, Russia is not a democracy, but a totalitarian state controlled by a dictator with an iron fist. If their 'reserves' are drawn down too far, there will be insurgency. Hiring mercenaries (in the article aka contract soldiers) from anywhere including China, isn't the same as getting seasoned, loyal troops. And it doesn't discount what I'm saying. They have lost their capacity to project power, and are now relying upon mercenaries to shore up their troop levels. They're spent.