3 ms·

p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret

by lijok 1y ago

p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.

phillipcarter 1y ago
Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now. Let's focus on that right now?
- redeeman 1y ago
  could you provide more details on this?
  - LeifCarrotson 1y ago
    I believe the parent is talking about Grok, the Nazi Twitter AI from Elon Musk: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/14/elon-musk-grok-ai-chatbot-x-linda-yaccarino https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/14/elon-musk...
    - redeeman 1y ago
      yes, a most explicit and deliberate happening masterminded by mr musk himself.
- lijok 1y ago
  Replace LLMs with any other source of labor and we've had that for centuries. What's changed?
  - Henchman21 1y ago
    Smart Phones are a true opiate of the masses. If you weren't aware, people on opium are generally really easy to manipulate to whatever ends especially if you offer more opium.
- Gothmog69 1y ago
  lol I wish that were true
- anonymoushn 1y ago
  please post about my pet issue instead of whatever the comment section is nominally about.
pasquinelli 1y ago
i won't use the term p(doom), but i agree that the human race is "doomed" in the same way all things that exist are "doomed."
OgsyedIE 1y ago
Eh, AI-driven p(doom) is only 100% if there is no intelligence ceiling around the human level. But consider, in the alternate universe where we never invent AI, economic p(doom) is also 100%. Humans are fragile and short-lived. https://youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0 https://youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0
- lijok 1y ago
  That's interesting - first time I'm hearing the idea there might be an intelligence ceiling around the human level. Who talks about this more?
  - OgsyedIE 1y ago
    It is an open question and typing "human intelligence ceiling ai" into your search engine of choice is a good way to see that, but it is basically wishful thinking. The likes of David Deutsch, Judea Pearl and Noam Chomsky all argue this at differing levels of academic integrity (IMO Steven Byrnes has produced the most rigorous work on the English internet), but there is a simple objection. If you have a single AI that is capped at an intelligence ceiling equivalent to human levels of intellect, what is stopping you from running fifty of them, in parallel, at fifty times faster than our normal human clock speed, as a team?

by lijok 1y ago

phillipcarter 1y ago

Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now. Let's focus on that right now?

redeeman 1y ago
could you provide more details on this?
- LeifCarrotson 1y ago
  I believe the parent is talking about Grok, the Nazi Twitter AI from Elon Musk: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/14/elon-musk-grok-ai-chatbot-x-linda-yaccarino https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/14/elon-musk...
  - redeeman 1y ago
    yes, a most explicit and deliberate happening masterminded by mr musk himself.
lijok 1y ago
Replace LLMs with any other source of labor and we've had that for centuries. What's changed?
- Henchman21 1y ago
  Smart Phones are a true opiate of the masses. If you weren't aware, people on opium are generally really easy to manipulate to whatever ends especially if you offer more opium.
Gothmog69 1y ago
lol I wish that were true
anonymoushn 1y ago
please post about my pet issue instead of whatever the comment section is nominally about.

pasquinelli 1y ago

i won't use the term p(doom), but i agree that the human race is "doomed" in the same way all things that exist are "doomed."

OgsyedIE 1y ago

Eh, AI-driven p(doom) is only 100% if there is no intelligence ceiling around the human level. But consider, in the alternate universe where we never invent AI, economic p(doom) is also 100%. Humans are fragile and short-lived. https://youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0 https://youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0

lijok 1y ago
That's interesting - first time I'm hearing the idea there might be an intelligence ceiling around the human level. Who talks about this more?
- OgsyedIE 1y ago
  It is an open question and typing "human intelligence ceiling ai" into your search engine of choice is a good way to see that, but it is basically wishful thinking. The likes of David Deutsch, Judea Pearl and Noam Chomsky all argue this at differing levels of academic integrity (IMO Steven Byrnes has produced the most rigorous work on the English internet), but there is a simple objection. If you have a single AI that is capped at an intelligence ceiling equivalent to human levels of intellect, what is stopping you from running fifty of them, in parallel, at fifty times faster than our normal human clock speed, as a team?