3 ms·

> but presumably the VCs have some idea of what Thinking Machines is building you imply that VCs are rational because bet their own money, which in current com

> but presumably the VCs have some idea of what Thinking Machines is building you imply that VCs are rational because bet their own money, which in current complicated world probably is not true. VC funds get money from complicated funnel likely including my/your retirement account and country public debt, VC managers likely receive bonuses for closed deals and not long term gains which may materialize in 10 years. So, investing 2B into non-existing product with unclear market fit/team/tech moat smells very strongly.

cheema33 1y ago
> you imply that VCs are rational because bet their own money, which in current complicated world probably is not true. Correct. Most VCs are using someone else's money. See Softbank. And making extremely poor judgements on how to use that money.
- jordanb 1y ago
  Unfortunately in many cases those "other people" are, for instance, California's teachers.
pdabbadabba 1y ago
So your position is that a VC will invest $2B in a startup on vibes alone without having any idea what they're building, because it is not literally their money? That seems like a significantly stronger and less plausible claim than mine, which his merely that a prospective $2B investor has access to more information about the company's plans than we do and that their investment is at least some indication that there is a real product in the pipeline.
- riku_iki 1y ago
  > that a prospective $2B investor has access to more information about the company's plans than we do and that their investment is at least some indication that there is a real product in the pipeline. there is a funnel of investors: say retirement account holders put money into some retirement fund, fund manager put money into some "innovation fund", "innovation fund" put money in VC fund. All middlemen get % cut, VC likely watch slides about some product roadmap, but they more interested in closing the deal, get % cut and move on.
  - pdabbadabba 1y ago
    And if those $2B just go poof because they somehow failed to notice what is apparently so obvious to people on his thread -- that there is no real product -- your position is that the VC does not suffer any significant consequences?
    - riku_iki 1y ago
      > your position is that the VC does not suffer any significant consequences? it is likely they won't suffer any significant consequences

cheema33 1y ago

> you imply that VCs are rational because bet their own money, which in current complicated world probably is not true. Correct. Most VCs are using someone else's money. See Softbank. And making extremely poor judgements on how to use that money.

jordanb 1y ago
Unfortunately in many cases those "other people" are, for instance, California's teachers.

pdabbadabba 1y ago

So your position is that a VC will invest $2B in a startup on vibes alone without having any idea what they're building, because it is not literally their money? That seems like a significantly stronger and less plausible claim than mine, which his merely that a prospective $2B investor has access to more information about the company's plans than we do and that their investment is at least some indication that there is a real product in the pipeline.

riku_iki 1y ago
> that a prospective $2B investor has access to more information about the company's plans than we do and that their investment is at least some indication that there is a real product in the pipeline. there is a funnel of investors: say retirement account holders put money into some retirement fund, fund manager put money into some "innovation fund", "innovation fund" put money in VC fund. All middlemen get % cut, VC likely watch slides about some product roadmap, but they more interested in closing the deal, get % cut and move on.
- pdabbadabba 1y ago
  And if those $2B just go poof because they somehow failed to notice what is apparently so obvious to people on his thread -- that there is no real product -- your position is that the VC does not suffer any significant consequences?
  - riku_iki 1y ago
    > your position is that the VC does not suffer any significant consequences? it is likely they won't suffer any significant consequences