Well, it will cause either 1) much greater efficiency, 2) lower profits, or 3) higher prices. American capitalism being what it is, 3 is the most likely outcom

Well, it will cause either 1) much greater efficiency, 2) lower profits, or 3) higher prices. American capitalism being what it is, 3 is the most likely outcome. And higher prices are exactly what the inflation statistics measure. The difference is that, if tariffs go to 50%, say, and stay there, then prices rise corresponding to 50% of the foreign content, but they don't keep rising (unless either the tariff rate rises or the foreign content rises). So it would be more of a one-off bump in inflation rather than continual inflation, which is what most people mean.