29 ms·

There is an old cliché about stopping the tide coming in. I mean, yeah you can get out there and participate in trying to stop it. This isn't about fatalism or

There is an old cliché about stopping the tide coming in. I mean, yeah you can get out there and participate in trying to stop it. This isn't about fatalism or even pessimism. The tide coming in isn't good or bad. It's more like the refrain from Game of Thrones: Winter is coming. You prepare for it. Your time might be better served finding shelter and warm clothing rather than engaging in a futile attempt to prevent it.

OtomotO 1y ago
The last tide being the blockchain (hype), which was supposed to solve all and everyone's problems about a decade ago already. How come there even is anything left to solve for LLMs?
- dr_dshiv 1y ago
  The difference between hype and reality is productivity—LLMs are productively used by hundreds of millions of people. Block chain is useful primarily in the imagination. It’s just really not comparable.
  - OtomotO 1y ago
    No, it's overinvestment. And I don't see how most people are divided in two groups or appear to be. Either it's total shit, or it's the holy cup of truth, here to solve all our problems. It's neither. It's a tool. Like a shovel, it's good at something. And like a shovel it's bad at other things. E.g. I wouldn't use a shovel to hammer in a nail. LLMs will NEVER become true AGI. But do they need to? No, or course not! My biggest problem with LLMs isn't the shit code they produce from time to time, as I am paid to resolve messes, it's the environmental impact of MINDLESSLY using one. But whatever. People like cults and anti-cults are cults too.
    - TeMPOraL 1y ago
      There are two different groups with different perspectives and relationships to the "AI hype"; I think we're talking in circles in this subthread because we're talking about different people. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44208831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44208831. Quoting myself (sorry): > For me, one of the Beneficiaries, the hype seems totally warranted. The capability is there, the possibilities are enormous, pace of advancement is staggering, and achieving them is realistic. If it takes a few years longer than the Investor group thinks - that's fine with us; it's only a problem for them.
    - dr_dshiv 1y ago
      Your concern is the environmental impact? Why pick on LLMs vs Amazon or your local drug store? Or a local restaurant, for that matter? Do the calculations for how much LLM use is required to equal one hamburger worth of CO2 — or the CO2 of commuting to work in a car. If my daily LLM environmental impact is comparable to my lunch or going to work, it’s really hard to fault, IMO. They aren’t building data centers in the rainforest.
      - OtomotO 1y ago
        Why do you assume I am not concerned about the other sources of environmental impact? Of course I don't go around posting everything I am concerned about when we are talking about a specific topic. You're aware tho, that because of the AI hype sustainability programs were cut at all major tech firms?
        dr_dshiv 1y ago
        It also correlated with the discovery that voluntary carbon credits weren’t sufficient for their environmental marketing. If carbon credits were viewed as valid, I’m pretty sure they would have kept the programs.
    - ben_w 1y ago
      I broadly agree with your point, but would also draw attention to something I've observed: > LLMs will NEVER become true AGI. But do they need to? No, or course not! Everyone disagrees about the meaning of each of the three letters of the initialism "AGI", and also disagree about the compound whole and often argue it means something different than the simple meaning of those words separately. Even on this website, "AGI" means anything from "InstructGPT" (the precursor to ChatGPT) to "Biblical God" — or, even worse than "God" given this is a tech forum, "can solve provably impossible task such as the halting problem".
      - OtomotO 1y ago
        Well, I go by the definition I was brought up with and am not interesting and redefining words all the time. A true AGI is basically Skynet or the Basilisk ;-)
        ben_w 1y ago
        Most of us are so; but if we're all using different definitions then no communication is possible.
    - modo_mario 1y ago
      > it's the environmental impact of MINDLESSLY using one. Isn't much of that environmental impact currently from the training of the model rather than the usage? Something you could arguably one day just stop doing if you're satisfied with the progress on that front (People won't be any time soon admittedly) I'm no expert on this front. It's a genuine question based on what i've heard and read.
    - blackoil 1y ago
      Overinvestment isn't a bug. It is a feature of capitalism. When the dust settles there'll be few trillion-dollar pots and 100s of billion are being spent to get one of them. Environmental impacts of GenAI/LLM ecosystem are highly overrated.
  - immibis 1y ago
    > productively used This chart is extremely damning: https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/ https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o... The industry consistently predicts people will do the task quicker with AI. The people who are doing the task predict they'll do it quicker if they can use AI. After doing the task with AI, they predict they did it quicker because they used AI. People who did it without AI predict they could have done it quicker with AI. But they actually measured how long it takes. It turns out, they do it slower if they use AI. This is damning. It's a dopamine machine. It makes you feel good, but with no reality behind it and no work to achieve it. It's no different in this regard from (some) hard drugs. A rat with a lever wired to the pleasure center in its brain keeps pressing that lever until it dies of starvation. (Yes, it's very surprising that you can create this effect without putting chemicals or electrodes in your brain. Social media achieved it first, though.)
FeepingCreature 1y ago
Reminder that the Dutch exist.
- stillpointlab 1y ago
  They're not stopping the tide, they are preparing for it - as I suggested. The tide is still happening, it just isn't causing the flooding. So in that sense we agree. Let's be like he Dutch. Let's realize the coming tide and build defenses against it.
  - FeepingCreature 1y ago
    They are kinda literally stopping the tide coming in though. They're preparing for it by blocking it off completely. That is a thing that humans can do if they want it enough.
    - lucumo 1y ago
      > They're preparing for it by blocking it off completely. No we don't. Quite the opposite. Several dams have been made into movable mechanic contraptions precisely to NOT stop the tide coming in. A lot of the water management is living with the water, not fighting it. Shore replenishment and strengthening is done by dropping sand in strategic locations and letting the water take care of dumping it in the right spot. Before big dredgers, the tide was used to flush sand out of harbours using big flushing basins. Big canals have been dug for better shipping. Big and small ships sailed and still sail on the waters to trade with the world. A lot of our riches come from the sea and the rivers. The water is a danger and a tool. It's not stopped, only redirected and often put to good use. Throughout Dutch history, those who worked with the water generally have done well. And similarly, some places really suffered after the water was redirected away from them. Fisher folk lost their livelihoods, cities lost access to trade, some land literally evaporated when it got too dry, a lot of land shrunk when water was removed, biodiversity dropped... Anyway, if you want to use the Dutch waters as a metaphor for technological innovations, the lesson will not be that the obvious answer is to block it. The lesson will be to accept it, to use it, to gain riches through it: to live with it.
Applejinx 1y ago
If you believe that there is nobody there inside all this LLM stuff, that it's ultimately hollow and yet that it'll still get used by the sort of people who'll look at most humans and call 'em non-player characters and meme at them, if you believe that you're looking at a collapse of civilization because of this hollowness and what it evokes in people… then you'll be doing that, but I can't blame anybody for engaging in attempts to prevent it.
- stillpointlab 1y ago
  You are stating a contradictory position: A person who doesn't believe AI can possibly emerge but is actively working to prevent it from emerging. I suggest that such a person is confused beyond help. edit As an aside, you might want to read Don Quixote [1] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Quixote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Quixote

OtomotO 1y ago

The last tide being the blockchain (hype), which was supposed to solve all and everyone's problems about a decade ago already. How come there even is anything left to solve for LLMs?

dr_dshiv 1y ago
The difference between hype and reality is productivity—LLMs are productively used by hundreds of millions of people. Block chain is useful primarily in the imagination. It’s just really not comparable.
- OtomotO 1y ago
  No, it's overinvestment. And I don't see how most people are divided in two groups or appear to be. Either it's total shit, or it's the holy cup of truth, here to solve all our problems. It's neither. It's a tool. Like a shovel, it's good at something. And like a shovel it's bad at other things. E.g. I wouldn't use a shovel to hammer in a nail. LLMs will NEVER become true AGI. But do they need to? No, or course not! My biggest problem with LLMs isn't the shit code they produce from time to time, as I am paid to resolve messes, it's the environmental impact of MINDLESSLY using one. But whatever. People like cults and anti-cults are cults too.
  - TeMPOraL 1y ago
    There are two different groups with different perspectives and relationships to the "AI hype"; I think we're talking in circles in this subthread because we're talking about different people. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44208831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44208831. Quoting myself (sorry): > For me, one of the Beneficiaries, the hype seems totally warranted. The capability is there, the possibilities are enormous, pace of advancement is staggering, and achieving them is realistic. If it takes a few years longer than the Investor group thinks - that's fine with us; it's only a problem for them.
  - dr_dshiv 1y ago
    Your concern is the environmental impact? Why pick on LLMs vs Amazon or your local drug store? Or a local restaurant, for that matter? Do the calculations for how much LLM use is required to equal one hamburger worth of CO2 — or the CO2 of commuting to work in a car. If my daily LLM environmental impact is comparable to my lunch or going to work, it’s really hard to fault, IMO. They aren’t building data centers in the rainforest.
    - OtomotO 1y ago
      Why do you assume I am not concerned about the other sources of environmental impact? Of course I don't go around posting everything I am concerned about when we are talking about a specific topic. You're aware tho, that because of the AI hype sustainability programs were cut at all major tech firms?
      - dr_dshiv 1y ago
        It also correlated with the discovery that voluntary carbon credits weren’t sufficient for their environmental marketing. If carbon credits were viewed as valid, I’m pretty sure they would have kept the programs.
  - ben_w 1y ago
    I broadly agree with your point, but would also draw attention to something I've observed: > LLMs will NEVER become true AGI. But do they need to? No, or course not! Everyone disagrees about the meaning of each of the three letters of the initialism "AGI", and also disagree about the compound whole and often argue it means something different than the simple meaning of those words separately. Even on this website, "AGI" means anything from "InstructGPT" (the precursor to ChatGPT) to "Biblical God" — or, even worse than "God" given this is a tech forum, "can solve provably impossible task such as the halting problem".
    - OtomotO 1y ago
      Well, I go by the definition I was brought up with and am not interesting and redefining words all the time. A true AGI is basically Skynet or the Basilisk ;-)
      - ben_w 1y ago
        Most of us are so; but if we're all using different definitions then no communication is possible.
  - modo_mario 1y ago
    > it's the environmental impact of MINDLESSLY using one. Isn't much of that environmental impact currently from the training of the model rather than the usage? Something you could arguably one day just stop doing if you're satisfied with the progress on that front (People won't be any time soon admittedly) I'm no expert on this front. It's a genuine question based on what i've heard and read.
  - blackoil 1y ago
    Overinvestment isn't a bug. It is a feature of capitalism. When the dust settles there'll be few trillion-dollar pots and 100s of billion are being spent to get one of them. Environmental impacts of GenAI/LLM ecosystem are highly overrated.
- immibis 1y ago
  > productively used This chart is extremely damning: https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/ https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o... The industry consistently predicts people will do the task quicker with AI. The people who are doing the task predict they'll do it quicker if they can use AI. After doing the task with AI, they predict they did it quicker because they used AI. People who did it without AI predict they could have done it quicker with AI. But they actually measured how long it takes. It turns out, they do it slower if they use AI. This is damning. It's a dopamine machine. It makes you feel good, but with no reality behind it and no work to achieve it. It's no different in this regard from (some) hard drugs. A rat with a lever wired to the pleasure center in its brain keeps pressing that lever until it dies of starvation. (Yes, it's very surprising that you can create this effect without putting chemicals or electrodes in your brain. Social media achieved it first, though.)

FeepingCreature 1y ago

Reminder that the Dutch exist.

stillpointlab 1y ago
They're not stopping the tide, they are preparing for it - as I suggested. The tide is still happening, it just isn't causing the flooding. So in that sense we agree. Let's be like he Dutch. Let's realize the coming tide and build defenses against it.
- FeepingCreature 1y ago
  They are kinda literally stopping the tide coming in though. They're preparing for it by blocking it off completely. That is a thing that humans can do if they want it enough.
  - lucumo 1y ago
    > They're preparing for it by blocking it off completely. No we don't. Quite the opposite. Several dams have been made into movable mechanic contraptions precisely to NOT stop the tide coming in. A lot of the water management is living with the water, not fighting it. Shore replenishment and strengthening is done by dropping sand in strategic locations and letting the water take care of dumping it in the right spot. Before big dredgers, the tide was used to flush sand out of harbours using big flushing basins. Big canals have been dug for better shipping. Big and small ships sailed and still sail on the waters to trade with the world. A lot of our riches come from the sea and the rivers. The water is a danger and a tool. It's not stopped, only redirected and often put to good use. Throughout Dutch history, those who worked with the water generally have done well. And similarly, some places really suffered after the water was redirected away from them. Fisher folk lost their livelihoods, cities lost access to trade, some land literally evaporated when it got too dry, a lot of land shrunk when water was removed, biodiversity dropped... Anyway, if you want to use the Dutch waters as a metaphor for technological innovations, the lesson will not be that the obvious answer is to block it. The lesson will be to accept it, to use it, to gain riches through it: to live with it.

Applejinx 1y ago

If you believe that there is nobody there inside all this LLM stuff, that it's ultimately hollow and yet that it'll still get used by the sort of people who'll look at most humans and call 'em non-player characters and meme at them, if you believe that you're looking at a collapse of civilization because of this hollowness and what it evokes in people… then you'll be doing that, but I can't blame anybody for engaging in attempts to prevent it.

stillpointlab 1y ago
You are stating a contradictory position: A person who doesn't believe AI can possibly emerge but is actively working to prevent it from emerging. I suggest that such a person is confused beyond help. edit As an aside, you might want to read Don Quixote [1] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Quixote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Quixote