3 ms·
> in two months what you would do in 4 years There should be a FOSS project explosion if those numbers were true by now. Commercial products too.
by rightbyte 1y ago
> in two months what you would do in 4 years
There should be a FOSS project explosion if those numbers were true by now. Commercial products too.
- danielbln 1y agoClaude Code was released 4 months ago, agebtic coding in general really came into being earlier this year. Maybe give it a minute?
- rightbyte 1y agoSure but that would be 40 months with claimed LLM augmentation though. I don't feel it.
- metaltyphoon 1y ago4 months but now 10-20x more productive means there should be an explosions of projects! So where is it?
- 59nadir 1y agoWe surely shouldn't need a whole minute, 3 seconds should suffice? ;) Jokes aside, if 20x was on the table for any kind of meaningful work we wouldn't need to wait for much of anything, entire parts of industry would be invented and technically reworked by now. It's most likely ~1.25x for what is mostly trivial work that approaches 95% boilerplate and zero actual design work. If you read calrain's posts the 20x number is taken from the "fact" that sometimes (not consistently or most of the time) something that was estimated at 2 weeks or 80 hours (who knows what it was and how that number came to be?) took 2 hours instead. That's not just some minor detail; it's just not a sound way of thinking about productivity increases.