4 ms·
> people consistently predict and self-report in the wrong direction I recall an adage about work-estimation: As chunks get too big, people unconsciously subst
by Terr_ 1y ago
> people consistently predict and self-report in the wrong direction
I recall an adage about work-estimation: As chunks get too big, people unconsciously substitute "how possible does the final outcome feel" with "how long will the work take to do."
People asked "how long did it take" could be substituting something else, such as "how alone did I feel while working on it."
- sandinmyjoints 1y agoThat’s an interesting adage. Any ideas of its source?
- Dilettante_ 1y agoIt might have been in Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
- Terr_ 1y agoI'm not sure, but something involving Kahneman et al. seems very plausible: The relevant term is probably "Attribute Substitution." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribute_substitution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribute_substitution