4 ms·

Can anybody say "bubble"? It's clear to most people Apple isn't worth the money the stock markets assign it - well over half their cap is investment in the bra

Can anybody say "bubble"? It's clear to most people Apple isn't worth the money the stock markets assign it - well over half their cap is investment in the brand. If they ever do anything to damage that or if they do something even remotely wrong, a whole lot of people are going to lose a whole lot of money.

AngryParsley 14y ago
Is it really so clear? Anyone who thinks AAPL is overvalued (including you) can make lots of money by shorting or using puts appropriately. People aren't doing that, so they must not be very confident about Apple's stock price decreasing.
- oliwarner 14y ago
  You might want to note that I'm not saying Apple is going to implode at 15:02:32, 2nd September, 2012. I said it depends on Apple doing something wrong and I can't predict when that'll happen or what it'll be but here are some suggestions: Making the iPhone 7 out of cheese or Tim Cook farting in the wrong direction. Either way, if the markets have shown us anything in the past, it doesn't take much at the moment to send traders into sellmageddon mode.
  - npguy 14y ago
    Purely in valuation terms, Apple stock is in no bubble. AAPL is trading at a P/E of 15.86 GOOG has a P/E of 20.08, for example.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
  - msellout 14y ago
    Could you explain why? The dividend is an indication that they have too much savings. Share repurchasing is an indication that the company believes its shares are undervalued. Or am I missing something?
- pwaring 14y ago
  The problem with shorting is that you can make the right call broadly, but time it wrong. I think AAPL is overvalued, but I don't know when (or even if) the market will come to the same conclusion. It costs money to keep short positions open - there are several examples of people who exited short positions in the subprime-mortgage bond market just before the credit crunch. They were convinced that the market was going to crash, but they didn't know exactly when.
martin_bech 14y ago
Why do you think the stock is overvalued? They only trade at 15 x earnings, so the cap is very much aligned with earnings and growth, i really see nothing in the stock price, that indicates a brand factor. If you compare it to Google, they trade at 20 x earnings.. and have less growth...
eru 14y ago
Do you know if it's feasible to take long term short positions on Apple? Say, like 5 years?

AngryParsley 14y ago

Is it really so clear? Anyone who thinks AAPL is overvalued (including you) can make lots of money by shorting or using puts appropriately. People aren't doing that, so they must not be very confident about Apple's stock price decreasing.

oliwarner 14y ago
You might want to note that I'm not saying Apple is going to implode at 15:02:32, 2nd September, 2012. I said it depends on Apple doing something wrong and I can't predict when that'll happen or what it'll be but here are some suggestions: Making the iPhone 7 out of cheese or Tim Cook farting in the wrong direction. Either way, if the markets have shown us anything in the past, it doesn't take much at the moment to send traders into sellmageddon mode.
- npguy 14y ago
  Purely in valuation terms, Apple stock is in no bubble. AAPL is trading at a P/E of 15.86 GOOG has a P/E of 20.08, for example.
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
- msellout 14y ago
  Could you explain why? The dividend is an indication that they have too much savings. Share repurchasing is an indication that the company believes its shares are undervalued. Or am I missing something?
pwaring 14y ago
The problem with shorting is that you can make the right call broadly, but time it wrong. I think AAPL is overvalued, but I don't know when (or even if) the market will come to the same conclusion. It costs money to keep short positions open - there are several examples of people who exited short positions in the subprime-mortgage bond market just before the credit crunch. They were convinced that the market was going to crash, but they didn't know exactly when.

martin_bech 14y ago

Why do you think the stock is overvalued? They only trade at 15 x earnings, so the cap is very much aligned with earnings and growth, i really see nothing in the stock price, that indicates a brand factor. If you compare it to Google, they trade at 20 x earnings.. and have less growth...

eru 14y ago

Do you know if it's feasible to take long term short positions on Apple? Say, like 5 years?