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The formula is so consistent: cherry-pick some disappointments, interpret any pivot as retreat, claim the hype is unsustainable, predict imminent collapse, posi
by ctoth 1y ago
The formula is so consistent: cherry-pick some disappointments, interpret any pivot as retreat, claim the hype is unsustainable, predict imminent collapse, position yourself as the sober realist. Rinse and repeat every 6-12 months, adjusting the timeline when the previous prediction fails to materialize.
- alganet 1y agoHis prediction of self-driving cars being a fiasco does not need any adjustment, and it stands after 7 years.
- JLO64 1y agoLiving in LA where there are plenty of Waymo cars constantly driving around, I strongly disagree with that.
- alganet 1y agoYes, 400 of them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo#Robotaxis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo#Robotaxis LA has more than 6,000,000 cars. That is how strong you can disagree with me. 400 out of 6,000,000. And I'm being kind by considering just LA.
- joak 1y agoWhat counts is not the total numbers of cars today but the growth rate of this number. Ten doublings is 1000x
- alganet 1y agoWaymo was founded in 2004. That's a very slow growth rate. So far, the prediction made in 2018 stands. Self-driving car companies lose money, and are a fiasco. Maybe that will change in the future, but that's the future. We'll talk about that then.