5 ms·

BTC is still in a bubble and there is not much news about it :)

by wouldbecouldbe 1y ago

guesswho_ 1y ago
BTC is Bhutanease Currency. Do you mean XBT?
- adastra22 1y ago
  Nobody uses XBT. That ship has sailed.
- CjHuber 1y ago
  It seems like you are fighting a very lonely fight
- walthamstow 1y ago
  BTN is the ISO 4217 code for the Bhutan Ngultrum, which is a currency I hadn't heard of until today
diggan 1y ago
For how long does a "bubble" need to be in "the bubble" for it to not be considered a "bubble" anymore? I'm guessing there is a time limit involved here somewhere?
- willis936 1y ago
  Economic downturn that motivates holders to liquidate. The house of cards would collapse very quickly if one whale cashed out. Everyone holding is facing a bad version of the prisoner's dilemma.
  - diggan 1y ago
    > The house of cards would collapse very quickly if one whale cashed out So a thing is a "bubble" for as long as it is possible for it to collapse if whales cash out too quickly? In your mind, every financial system today is a bubble if I understand you correct then?
  - xtracto 1y ago
    It already happened several times for BTC. Look for ATH drawdown chart. Bitcoin has lost 75% of its value 4+ times, but for some strange reason everytime it "comes back stronger". My thesis is that, in all these years, the BTC price has been composed of 2 parts: Speculators and "believers". Speculators will buy and sell very fast as soon as the market moved or due to external phenomena. "Believers" will keep holding through everything. Thing is, with each cycle there is more money on Believers than Speculators. This time, ETFs and institutions have placed a lot more money, so it seems there are more and more Believers. That's why you see retail Speculators saying that this cycle is "boring". It's interesting to see how the price will keep stabilizing, as the ratio of Believers vs Speculators money gets larger (Speculators become a smaller and smaller % of the price). I think this was the last cycle (halving cycle) with that much volatility. Even if you are not into bitcoin, it's interesting to study its phenomena.
    - willis936 1y ago
      Backing the security with public programs just feels like the last step in a scam. As soon as BTC is backed by ETFs and government programs then suddenly the public are the people who make up the difference when whales cash out and crash the true value. It's a very efficient transfer of wealth. Backing a security like this adds no value to the public but puts large risk on it. There is no justification other than "we can steal from you so we will".
    - dnpp123 1y ago
      Your thesis is 10+ year old: https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ Always good to find back well known results by first principles!
- dmichulke 1y ago
  What you're saying is that the claim "it's a bubble" is not falsifiable (people move price and time targets) and therefore a belief and not scientifically grounded, just like a religion. So any discussion with BTC bubble people is futile unless they are willing to put their money where their mouth is.
  - diggan 1y ago
    > What you're saying is that the claim "it's a bubble" is not falsifiable (people move price and time targets) and therefore a belief and not scientifically grounded, just like a religion. No, I'm merely trying to understand what people's understanding of a "bubble" is. I couldn't care less if others consider Bitcoin a bubble or not, but after hearing "Bitcoin is a bubble" since ~2015 sometime, I feel like I misunderstand what a "bubble" is. The "tulip mania" seems to have been around 2-3 years long, the dotcom bubble around 10 years, so I guess it isn't impossible for a bubble to last 20 or even 30 years.
- wouldbecouldbe 1y ago
  As long as there is no world use justifying it's exorbitant value pumped up by speculation. The BTC holders trying to rebrand to a value storage instead of a currency is proof of this.
  - diggan 1y ago
    > As long as there is no world use Who judges this? Is "bubble" a personal/subjective thing then? Bitcoin is a bubble for you, because there is no use case, but not a bubble for others that can use it for any reason?
  - npoc 1y ago
    you can make money speculating that something will go down as well as up. It's not the reason for it's price to go up. BTW, you call it's price exhorbitant - I say it's rediculously cheap at any price where you can still get someone to accept fiat tokens for it
- wmf 1y ago
  Maybe a generation or a lifetime. Gold is also a bubble but people are either into it or not so there's little discussion.

BTC is still in a bubble and there is not much news about it :)

guesswho_ 1y ago

BTC is Bhutanease Currency. Do you mean XBT?

adastra22 1y ago
Nobody uses XBT. That ship has sailed.
CjHuber 1y ago
It seems like you are fighting a very lonely fight
walthamstow 1y ago
BTN is the ISO 4217 code for the Bhutan Ngultrum, which is a currency I hadn't heard of until today

diggan 1y ago

For how long does a "bubble" need to be in "the bubble" for it to not be considered a "bubble" anymore? I'm guessing there is a time limit involved here somewhere?

willis936 1y ago
Economic downturn that motivates holders to liquidate. The house of cards would collapse very quickly if one whale cashed out. Everyone holding is facing a bad version of the prisoner's dilemma.
- diggan 1y ago
  > The house of cards would collapse very quickly if one whale cashed out So a thing is a "bubble" for as long as it is possible for it to collapse if whales cash out too quickly? In your mind, every financial system today is a bubble if I understand you correct then?
- xtracto 1y ago
  It already happened several times for BTC. Look for ATH drawdown chart. Bitcoin has lost 75% of its value 4+ times, but for some strange reason everytime it "comes back stronger". My thesis is that, in all these years, the BTC price has been composed of 2 parts: Speculators and "believers". Speculators will buy and sell very fast as soon as the market moved or due to external phenomena. "Believers" will keep holding through everything. Thing is, with each cycle there is more money on Believers than Speculators. This time, ETFs and institutions have placed a lot more money, so it seems there are more and more Believers. That's why you see retail Speculators saying that this cycle is "boring". It's interesting to see how the price will keep stabilizing, as the ratio of Believers vs Speculators money gets larger (Speculators become a smaller and smaller % of the price). I think this was the last cycle (halving cycle) with that much volatility. Even if you are not into bitcoin, it's interesting to study its phenomena.
  - willis936 1y ago
    Backing the security with public programs just feels like the last step in a scam. As soon as BTC is backed by ETFs and government programs then suddenly the public are the people who make up the difference when whales cash out and crash the true value. It's a very efficient transfer of wealth. Backing a security like this adds no value to the public but puts large risk on it. There is no justification other than "we can steal from you so we will".
  - dnpp123 1y ago
    Your thesis is 10+ year old: https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ Always good to find back well known results by first principles!
dmichulke 1y ago
What you're saying is that the claim "it's a bubble" is not falsifiable (people move price and time targets) and therefore a belief and not scientifically grounded, just like a religion. So any discussion with BTC bubble people is futile unless they are willing to put their money where their mouth is.
- diggan 1y ago
  > What you're saying is that the claim "it's a bubble" is not falsifiable (people move price and time targets) and therefore a belief and not scientifically grounded, just like a religion. No, I'm merely trying to understand what people's understanding of a "bubble" is. I couldn't care less if others consider Bitcoin a bubble or not, but after hearing "Bitcoin is a bubble" since ~2015 sometime, I feel like I misunderstand what a "bubble" is. The "tulip mania" seems to have been around 2-3 years long, the dotcom bubble around 10 years, so I guess it isn't impossible for a bubble to last 20 or even 30 years.
wouldbecouldbe 1y ago
As long as there is no world use justifying it's exorbitant value pumped up by speculation. The BTC holders trying to rebrand to a value storage instead of a currency is proof of this.
- diggan 1y ago
  > As long as there is no world use Who judges this? Is "bubble" a personal/subjective thing then? Bitcoin is a bubble for you, because there is no use case, but not a bubble for others that can use it for any reason?
- npoc 1y ago
  you can make money speculating that something will go down as well as up. It's not the reason for it's price to go up. BTW, you call it's price exhorbitant - I say it's rediculously cheap at any price where you can still get someone to accept fiat tokens for it
wmf 1y ago
Maybe a generation or a lifetime. Gold is also a bubble but people are either into it or not so there's little discussion.