4 ms·

> One thing I find frustrating is that management where I work has heard of 10x productivity gains. That may also be in part because llms are not as big of an

by thunky 1y ago

> One thing I find frustrating is that management where I work has heard of 10x productivity gains. That may also be in part because llms are not as big of an accelerant for junior devs as they are for seniors (juniors don't know what is good and bad as well). So if you give 1 senior dev a souped up llm workflow I wouldn't be too surprised if they are as productive as 10 pre-llm juniors. Maybe even more, because a bad dev can actually produce negative productivity (stealing from the senior), in which case it's infinityx. Even a decent junior is mostly limited to doing the low level grunt work, which llms can already do better. Point is, I can see how jobs could be lost, legitimately.

Loughla 1y ago
The item lost is pipeline of talent in all of this though. Precision machining is going through an absolute nightmare where the journeymen or master machinists are aging out of the work force. These were people who originally learned on manual machines, and upgraded to CNC over the years. The pipeline collapsed about 1997. Now there are no apprentice machinists to replace the skills of the retiring workforce. This will happen to software developers. Probably faster because they tend to be financially independent WAY sooner than machinists.
- thunky 1y ago
  > The item lost is pipeline of talent in all of this though. Totally agree. However, I think this pipeline has been taking a hit for a while already because juniors as a whole have been devaluing themselves: if we expect them to leave after one year, what's the point of hiring and training them? Only helping their next employer at that point.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - hobs 1y ago
    That old canard? If you pay people in a way that incentivizes them to stay, they will. If you train people and treat them right and pay them right, they wont leave. If they are, try to fix one of those things, stop blaming the juniors for their massive collusion in a market where they literally are struggling to get jobs.
  - georgemcbay 1y ago
    Its the employers who are responsible for the fact that almost everyone working in tech (across all skill levels) will have a far easier time advancing in both pay and title by jumping jobs often. Very few companies put any real thought into meaningful retention but they are quick to complain about turnover.
    - thunky 1y ago
      Yes I agree it works both ways. Employment is a transaction and both sides are trying to optimize outcomes in their own best interest. No blame. The health of the job market is a big factor as well.
  - Ferrus91 1y ago
    > However, I think this pipeline has been taking a hit for a while already because juniors as a whole have been devaluing themselves I have seen the standards for junior devs in free fall for a few years as they hired tons of bootcamp fodder over the last few years. I have lost count of the number of whinging junior devs who think SQL or regex is 'too hard' for their poor little brains. No wonder they are being replaced by a probabilistic magician's hat.

by thunky 1y ago

Loughla 1y ago

The item lost is pipeline of talent in all of this though. Precision machining is going through an absolute nightmare where the journeymen or master machinists are aging out of the work force. These were people who originally learned on manual machines, and upgraded to CNC over the years. The pipeline collapsed about 1997. Now there are no apprentice machinists to replace the skills of the retiring workforce. This will happen to software developers. Probably faster because they tend to be financially independent WAY sooner than machinists.

thunky 1y ago
> The item lost is pipeline of talent in all of this though. Totally agree. However, I think this pipeline has been taking a hit for a while already because juniors as a whole have been devaluing themselves: if we expect them to leave after one year, what's the point of hiring and training them? Only helping their next employer at that point.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- hobs 1y ago
  That old canard? If you pay people in a way that incentivizes them to stay, they will. If you train people and treat them right and pay them right, they wont leave. If they are, try to fix one of those things, stop blaming the juniors for their massive collusion in a market where they literally are struggling to get jobs.
- georgemcbay 1y ago
  Its the employers who are responsible for the fact that almost everyone working in tech (across all skill levels) will have a far easier time advancing in both pay and title by jumping jobs often. Very few companies put any real thought into meaningful retention but they are quick to complain about turnover.
  - thunky 1y ago
    Yes I agree it works both ways. Employment is a transaction and both sides are trying to optimize outcomes in their own best interest. No blame. The health of the job market is a big factor as well.
- Ferrus91 1y ago
  > However, I think this pipeline has been taking a hit for a while already because juniors as a whole have been devaluing themselves I have seen the standards for junior devs in free fall for a few years as they hired tons of bootcamp fodder over the last few years. I have lost count of the number of whinging junior devs who think SQL or regex is 'too hard' for their poor little brains. No wonder they are being replaced by a probabilistic magician's hat.