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Having systems thinking is a bit like being Cassandra: doomed to know the future yet doomed never to be believed. What's odd is that you'd think tribal thinker

by pydry 1y ago

Having systems thinking is a bit like being Cassandra: doomed to know the future yet doomed never to be believed. What's odd is that you'd think tribal thinkers would respond to a track record of being proven correct but they emphatically do not. Moreover they're invariably convinced that you too think tribally. As an example, I can think of one politician (edit: not trump) who is definitely a systems thinker (who is not nice, but is successful and generally outplays his opponents because of it) and ~80% of Hacker News is convinced beyond the shadow of any doubt that he's an evil idiot loser who invariably makes stupid mistakes.

rgreek42 1y ago
Successfully leverages barbarism isn't a virtue of systems thinkers. You're proving GP's point.
- pydry 1y ago
  I think you might be proving mine actually. "Vices and virtues" are pretty much irrelevant to systems thinking but they are the bread and butter of tribalism.
  - rgreek42 1y ago
    This is exactly that classic dril post https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/994/418/48b.jpg https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/994/418/48b...
    - pydry 1y ago
      i was not making a normative statement at all. bizarre. tribal thinking doesnt seem to let you comprehend this.
nsingh2 1y ago
> As an example, I can think of one politician who is definitely a systems thinker (who is not nice, but is successful and generally outplays his opponents because of it) and ~80% of Hacker News is convinced beyond the shadow of any doubt that he's an evil idiot loser who always makes stupid mistakes. Not sure whether you’re talking about the Orange Man, but calling him a systems thinker is a hard sell given the damage his tariffs, defunding, and other nonsense are causing.
- pydry 1y ago
  i have a feeling that he sometimes listened to advisors who were capable of it, especially during his election campaigns but as you correctly point out the tariff clusterfuck was probably the most poignant example in recent history of where systems thinking was so desperately needed and so obviously lacking. But yea, definitely not him.
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  >calling him a systems thinker is a hard sell You have a man who was not part of the elite establishment and yet has managed to get wealthy by breaking the law and avoid getting caught, then managed to become president against all odds, twice. Sure, he came from wealth, but plenty of other people came from even more wealth and had way more political connections and failed to become presidents. Hate him all you want, but if achieving all that is not a form of intelligence and system knowledge, I don't know what is.
  - nsingh2 1y ago
    He’s definitely a good salesman. People already distrusted the elites and the `deep state` and he marketed himself as the outsider who’d fix things. That still isn’t sufficient evidence in his favor, given everything happening now.
    - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
      >People already distrusted the elites and the `deep state` and he marketed himself as the outsider who’d fix things. Q: If this was such an obvious slam dunk on how to win the presidency, why didn't the Dems come up with such a candidate? Wouldn't that make them stupider than the Donald for such an obvious oversight of the electorate? >That still isn’t sufficient evidence in his favor, given everything happening now. Managing to become president twice is insuficient evidence?
      - nsingh2 1y ago
        > If this was such an obvious slam dunk on how to win the presidency, why didn't the Dems come up with such a candidate? The Democratic party in it's current state is ineffective & incompetent in many ways. > Managing to become president twice is insufficient evidence? Yes. You are ignoring the damage he is doing now, which is direct evidence against him being a good “systems thinker”
spacemadness 1y ago
Well this is a new angle for MAGA isn’t it? Stop questioning him as he’s a stable genius with systems thinking. Nice try, but you’re going to have to own that one with a full explanation to get anywhere with it.
- pydry 1y ago
  >Moreover they're invariably convinced that you too think tribally. ^^ this bit was in anticipation of a response exactly like yours. I was actually referring to Putin. It was quite impressive to watch him successfully provoke sanctions to just about the level needed to result in a steady and sustainable level of import substitution and export oriented industrialization over the course of 12 years. It reminded me of that scene in die hard where the FBI cut the power. This was the same thing Trump fell flat on his face trying to do even when he was setting his own tariffs.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - spacemadness 1y ago
    Hiding what you’re talking about with no actual examples so you can spring a gotcha is just dumb, sorry. This is how the far right works generally online.
    - pydry 1y ago
      Im left wing.
benreesman 1y ago
If you're a systems thinker who can see the future then you can prove it in trading basically anything. The number of people who have done this is vanishingly small (and skeptics raise credible objections about even the best examples). Jim Simons was such a man, and (to the satisfaction of most) proved it. Some might say the same of Buffet. After that a list that started controversial rapidly gets into the zero consensus asymptote. So if you genuinely believe that your systems thinking prowess is prescient in its scope like something out of a Herbert novel, I can point you the narrow way through: get an account on Interactive Brokers and ascend!

by pydry 1y ago

rgreek42 1y ago

Successfully leverages barbarism isn't a virtue of systems thinkers. You're proving GP's point.

pydry 1y ago
I think you might be proving mine actually. "Vices and virtues" are pretty much irrelevant to systems thinking but they are the bread and butter of tribalism.
- rgreek42 1y ago
  This is exactly that classic dril post https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/994/418/48b.jpg https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/994/418/48b...
  - pydry 1y ago
    i was not making a normative statement at all. bizarre. tribal thinking doesnt seem to let you comprehend this.

nsingh2 1y ago

> As an example, I can think of one politician who is definitely a systems thinker (who is not nice, but is successful and generally outplays his opponents because of it) and ~80% of Hacker News is convinced beyond the shadow of any doubt that he's an evil idiot loser who always makes stupid mistakes. Not sure whether you’re talking about the Orange Man, but calling him a systems thinker is a hard sell given the damage his tariffs, defunding, and other nonsense are causing.

pydry 1y ago
i have a feeling that he sometimes listened to advisors who were capable of it, especially during his election campaigns but as you correctly point out the tariff clusterfuck was probably the most poignant example in recent history of where systems thinking was so desperately needed and so obviously lacking. But yea, definitely not him.
FirmwareBurner 1y ago
>calling him a systems thinker is a hard sell You have a man who was not part of the elite establishment and yet has managed to get wealthy by breaking the law and avoid getting caught, then managed to become president against all odds, twice. Sure, he came from wealth, but plenty of other people came from even more wealth and had way more political connections and failed to become presidents. Hate him all you want, but if achieving all that is not a form of intelligence and system knowledge, I don't know what is.
- nsingh2 1y ago
  He’s definitely a good salesman. People already distrusted the elites and the `deep state` and he marketed himself as the outsider who’d fix things. That still isn’t sufficient evidence in his favor, given everything happening now.
  - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
    >People already distrusted the elites and the `deep state` and he marketed himself as the outsider who’d fix things. Q: If this was such an obvious slam dunk on how to win the presidency, why didn't the Dems come up with such a candidate? Wouldn't that make them stupider than the Donald for such an obvious oversight of the electorate? >That still isn’t sufficient evidence in his favor, given everything happening now. Managing to become president twice is insuficient evidence?
    - nsingh2 1y ago
      > If this was such an obvious slam dunk on how to win the presidency, why didn't the Dems come up with such a candidate? The Democratic party in it's current state is ineffective & incompetent in many ways. > Managing to become president twice is insufficient evidence? Yes. You are ignoring the damage he is doing now, which is direct evidence against him being a good “systems thinker”

spacemadness 1y ago

Well this is a new angle for MAGA isn’t it? Stop questioning him as he’s a stable genius with systems thinking. Nice try, but you’re going to have to own that one with a full explanation to get anywhere with it.

pydry 1y ago
>Moreover they're invariably convinced that you too think tribally. ^^ this bit was in anticipation of a response exactly like yours. I was actually referring to Putin. It was quite impressive to watch him successfully provoke sanctions to just about the level needed to result in a steady and sustainable level of import substitution and export oriented industrialization over the course of 12 years. It reminded me of that scene in die hard where the FBI cut the power. This was the same thing Trump fell flat on his face trying to do even when he was setting his own tariffs.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- spacemadness 1y ago
  Hiding what you’re talking about with no actual examples so you can spring a gotcha is just dumb, sorry. This is how the far right works generally online.
  - pydry 1y ago
    Im left wing.

benreesman 1y ago

If you're a systems thinker who can see the future then you can prove it in trading basically anything. The number of people who have done this is vanishingly small (and skeptics raise credible objections about even the best examples). Jim Simons was such a man, and (to the satisfaction of most) proved it. Some might say the same of Buffet. After that a list that started controversial rapidly gets into the zero consensus asymptote. So if you genuinely believe that your systems thinking prowess is prescient in its scope like something out of a Herbert novel, I can point you the narrow way through: get an account on Interactive Brokers and ascend!