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Donald Trump has stated that he wants to weaken the dollar. It seems that he is succeeding. My guess is that he wants to make it more attractive when it comes

Donald Trump has stated that he wants to weaken the dollar. It seems that he is succeeding. My guess is that he wants to make it more attractive when it comes time to refinance the large portion of American long-term debt. He also wants to keep the interest rates low for the same reason. My questions is: What is causing the actual slide? The concrete mechanics and motivations that are causing people to sell USD.

ethbr1 1y ago
Devaluing the dollar is 100% the goal. It's literally noted as a key component in what the people running US trade policy now said they wanted to do, before joining government. It has the side effect of boosting nominal investment value (even if real value stays flat or decreases), maintaining political support from people who can't do math. The numbers continue to look good, but outcomes worsen. There are two flies in this ointment: international capital response and inflation. The latter is why Trump has been spending political capital on demonizing the Fed and Powell. The house of cards collapses if actual inflation bites and reveals the game. As to the former, it's tough to look at the situation and see US debt / equities as attractive as they once were: 1. Unsustainable US budget deficits 2. Political threats against the US central bank 3. Tariffs 4. Decreased immigration and worsening demographics
- pandaman 1y ago
  These do not explain how DXY[1] had been rallying up and started falling at the end of September 2022. At that time, if you don't recall, Trump was facing prison time and the US government was in the reliable hands of the most popular president ever with his cabinet of brilliant minds. 1. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M
  - ethbr1 1y ago
    Or, take a look at measures objectively instead of predeciding whose side you want to be on. https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/AAAU https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/AAAU

ethbr1 1y ago

Devaluing the dollar is 100% the goal. It's literally noted as a key component in what the people running US trade policy now said they wanted to do, before joining government. It has the side effect of boosting nominal investment value (even if real value stays flat or decreases), maintaining political support from people who can't do math. The numbers continue to look good, but outcomes worsen. There are two flies in this ointment: international capital response and inflation. The latter is why Trump has been spending political capital on demonizing the Fed and Powell. The house of cards collapses if actual inflation bites and reveals the game. As to the former, it's tough to look at the situation and see US debt / equities as attractive as they once were: 1. Unsustainable US budget deficits 2. Political threats against the US central bank 3. Tariffs 4. Decreased immigration and worsening demographics

pandaman 1y ago
These do not explain how DXY[1] had been rallying up and started falling at the end of September 2022. At that time, if you don't recall, Trump was facing prison time and the US government was in the reliable hands of the most popular president ever with his cabinet of brilliant minds. 1. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M
- ethbr1 1y ago
  Or, take a look at measures objectively instead of predeciding whose side you want to be on. https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/AAAU https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/AAAU