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I didn’t make any claims about the long-term prospects of AI, not sure where you got that. 100,000 years — 20 times longer than recorded history — presents a r

I didn’t make any claims about the long-term prospects of AI, not sure where you got that. 100,000 years — 20 times longer than recorded history — presents a ridiculous horizon to predict anything. Whatever happens on that time scale will have nothing to do with anyone now alive, or tech companies laying people off today. Based on the current state of AI I don’t think it replaces much economically viable human activity. Over time our definition of “economically viable” will change, as it has for the last 100,000 years.

paulcole 1y ago
> I didn’t make any claims about the long-term prospects of AI Actually you did. Someone else said that “There is a lot of debate whether AI will surpass humans in all economically viable skills” and you said, “Actually very little debate.” The absence of a timeline means that either you are talking about a very long timeline or you enjoy being vague so that you can feel like your predictions turn out to be correct. Which is it? > Based on the current state of AI I don’t think it replaces much economically viable human activity How much is not much? 5% or 22%? > Over time our definition of “economically viable” will change, as it has for the last 100,000 years What our definition of “economically viable” 100,000 years ago? What is it today?