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As far as I can tell, people are expecting a pivot into AI/robotics being major revenue drivers.

by kentm 1y ago

Animats 1y ago
Musk keeps saying that.[1] Tesla is not doing all that well with self-driving cars. They're behind Waymo, Zoox, and Baidu in Level 4 systems. (Level 4: good enough for a taxi service). All the major manufacturers have a Level 2 system now. A few have a Level 3 system where the driver can sit back and watch, but has to be ready to take over, which is where Tesla is now. There are at least 18 humanoid robots far enough along to have YouTube videos, none of which are commercially successful. There's no reason Tesla will dominate that industry, if and when it gets going. When those industries get going, there's no reason to expect they will have high margins. Humanoid robots compete with low-wage workers. Self driving cars compete with Uber drivers. [1] https://hgbr.org/elon-musk-unveils-teslas-ambitious-2025-vision/ https://hgbr.org/elon-musk-unveils-teslas-ambitious-2025-vis...
- tobias3 1y ago
  Isn't Tesla at level 2 (eyes on road, hands on wheel)?
  - Animats 1y ago
    Here are the levels.[1] The big problem is disconnects, where the autonomous system gives up and demands that the human take over. A big question with Tesla is whether "Full Self Driving (supervised)" is really a Level 3 system. It's currently "full self driving until it screws up, then it's your fault". Not "full self driving and if there's a situation it can't handle, it pulls over and parks". This is a big problem.[2] [1] https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update [2] https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/level-3-autonomy-what-car-buyers-need-know/ https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/level-3-autonomy-what-car-buy...
- dzhiurgis 1y ago
  FSD take up is less than 10%. Dropping subscription price will generate tons of revenue, esp once other markets open up.
chung8123 1y ago
Which is weird since he is keeping his AI company private and separate.
enaaem 1y ago
Hyundai has been making robots for decades

As far as I can tell, people are expecting a pivot into AI/robotics being major revenue drivers.

by kentm 1y ago

As far as I can tell, people are expecting a pivot into AI/robotics being major revenue drivers.

Musk keeps saying that.[1] Tesla is not doing all that well with self-driving cars. They're behind Waymo, Zoox, and Baidu in Level 4 systems. (Level 4: good enough for a taxi service). All the major manufacturers have a Level 2 system now. A few have a Level 3 system where the driver can sit back and watch, but has to be ready to take over, which is where Tesla is now. There are at least 18 humanoid robots far enough along to have YouTube videos, none of which are commercially successful. There's no reason Tesla will dominate that industry, if and when it gets going. When those industries get going, there's no reason to expect they will have high margins. Humanoid robots compete with low-wage workers. Self driving cars compete with Uber drivers. [1] https://hgbr.org/elon-musk-unveils-teslas-ambitious-2025-vision/ https://hgbr.org/elon-musk-unveils-teslas-ambitious-2025-vis...

tobias3 1y ago
Isn't Tesla at level 2 (eyes on road, hands on wheel)?
- Animats 1y ago
  Here are the levels.[1] The big problem is disconnects, where the autonomous system gives up and demands that the human take over. A big question with Tesla is whether "Full Self Driving (supervised)" is really a Level 3 system. It's currently "full self driving until it screws up, then it's your fault". Not "full self driving and if there's a situation it can't handle, it pulls over and parks". This is a big problem.[2] [1] https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update [2] https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/level-3-autonomy-what-car-buyers-need-know/ https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/level-3-autonomy-what-car-buy...
dzhiurgis 1y ago
FSD take up is less than 10%. Dropping subscription price will generate tons of revenue, esp once other markets open up.

chung8123 1y ago

Which is weird since he is keeping his AI company private and separate.

enaaem 1y ago

Hyundai has been making robots for decades