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Recent government payroll data has been hugely suspect. On the big release day the numbers are rosy and get reported to much hoopla and "told you" celebration,

Recent government payroll data has been hugely suspect. On the big release day the numbers are rosy and get reported to much hoopla and "told you" celebration, but then are subsequently revised downwards to little fanfare or notice. And for those who wonder "why revise downward if it's a lie?", because the numbers eventually are going to collide with reality so they need to be right sized after the fact.

k4shm0n3y 1y ago
This isn't a recent phenomena
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> for those who wonder "why revise downward if it's a lie?", because the numbers eventually are going to collide with reality so they need to be right sized after the fact No, this is not the reason. The numbers that get fanfare are the preliminary BLS numbers. BLS collects data through surveys. Preliminary data are published with incomplete responses. As more employers respond, the numbers get updated. Guess which employers tend to report late? Those that are doing lots of hiring and firing. So the stable numbers come in first. Then the volatile numbers later. This is well documented, happens on the way up and down, and is constantly (and wrongly) quoted as a partisan conspiracy going both ways.
- slashdev 1y ago
  The numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction. It could be that there are other things going on, but simply that volatile numbers come in later doesn’t seem to explain the bias.
  - s1artibartfast 1y ago
    Yes it does. It firms are consistently firing , the preliminary data will always be better and then revised down. Preliminary reports always underplay the direction of the change
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction Because the data have been going in one direction recently. When the job market booms, the revisions are upwards. Then everyone gets to wax lyrical about how BLS is socking the President.
  - eigen 1y ago
    > The numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction. summary of mean revision for seasonally adjusted numbers, since 2003 are 2nd-1st: 8 3rd-2nd: 2 1st-3rd: 10 but 2025 has been consistently, so far, be negative revisions. Dec 2024 has some positive revisions but 2023-2024 on the whole was negative while 2017-2022 were on the whole positive revision. so I dont think that there is data to support consistently wrong in one direction. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm
    - llm_nerd 1y ago
      Yet another B of L stellar job report just dropped. Once again "higher than expected" jobs. Anyone want to take bets on how the revisions will go on this?
intended 1y ago
Why assume conspiracy, when the reason is known?
- llm_nerd 1y ago
  What do you think the "reason" is? Several other comments have made self-contradictory claims. NEVER has it consistently over-estimated jobs as it has, in the history of reporting. Look, yet another stellar jobs report from the B of L today, completely at odds with the actual metrics of the ADP report. CNN reports it as "The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%" ROFL. Good god. The US has never had so incompetent, criminal and malicious of a government. Ever. It is full-bore idiocracy now, with absolutely in the open criminality. It isn't a "conspiracy", we know with utter fact that this cabal of Fox News halfwits and self-dealing creeps are liars. The orange felon rapist charity-thief quite explicitly thought the solution to COVID was simply to stop testing for it. US climate measurements have been annihilated because global warming doesn't exist if you don't test for it. This is not normal. If you need to comfort yourself by pretending it is, that's just spectacularly sad.
  - intended 1y ago
    The data gets revised as further survey information comes in. Thats the reason.

k4shm0n3y 1y ago

This isn't a recent phenomena

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> for those who wonder "why revise downward if it's a lie?", because the numbers eventually are going to collide with reality so they need to be right sized after the fact No, this is not the reason. The numbers that get fanfare are the preliminary BLS numbers. BLS collects data through surveys. Preliminary data are published with incomplete responses. As more employers respond, the numbers get updated. Guess which employers tend to report late? Those that are doing lots of hiring and firing. So the stable numbers come in first. Then the volatile numbers later. This is well documented, happens on the way up and down, and is constantly (and wrongly) quoted as a partisan conspiracy going both ways.

slashdev 1y ago
The numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction. It could be that there are other things going on, but simply that volatile numbers come in later doesn’t seem to explain the bias.
- s1artibartfast 1y ago
  Yes it does. It firms are consistently firing , the preliminary data will always be better and then revised down. Preliminary reports always underplay the direction of the change
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction Because the data have been going in one direction recently. When the job market booms, the revisions are upwards. Then everyone gets to wax lyrical about how BLS is socking the President.
- eigen 1y ago
  > The numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction. summary of mean revision for seasonally adjusted numbers, since 2003 are 2nd-1st: 8 3rd-2nd: 2 1st-3rd: 10 but 2025 has been consistently, so far, be negative revisions. Dec 2024 has some positive revisions but 2023-2024 on the whole was negative while 2017-2022 were on the whole positive revision. so I dont think that there is data to support consistently wrong in one direction. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm
  - llm_nerd 1y ago
    Yet another B of L stellar job report just dropped. Once again "higher than expected" jobs. Anyone want to take bets on how the revisions will go on this?

intended 1y ago

Why assume conspiracy, when the reason is known?

llm_nerd 1y ago
What do you think the "reason" is? Several other comments have made self-contradictory claims. NEVER has it consistently over-estimated jobs as it has, in the history of reporting. Look, yet another stellar jobs report from the B of L today, completely at odds with the actual metrics of the ADP report. CNN reports it as "The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%" ROFL. Good god. The US has never had so incompetent, criminal and malicious of a government. Ever. It is full-bore idiocracy now, with absolutely in the open criminality. It isn't a "conspiracy", we know with utter fact that this cabal of Fox News halfwits and self-dealing creeps are liars. The orange felon rapist charity-thief quite explicitly thought the solution to COVID was simply to stop testing for it. US climate measurements have been annihilated because global warming doesn't exist if you don't test for it. This is not normal. If you need to comfort yourself by pretending it is, that's just spectacularly sad.
- intended 1y ago
  The data gets revised as further survey information comes in. Thats the reason.