3 ms·
> However I believe you and many others are, due to a fear or animosity towards the implications of near term AGI, are engaged in motivated reasoning. Not fear
by gregjor 1y ago
> However I believe you and many others are, due to a fear or animosity towards the implications of near term AGI, are engaged in motivated reasoning.
Not fear or animosity. I have over 40 years in software development. I’ve seen numerous fads and supposedly revolutionary tech ideas get pushed hard only to fade away, or fail to deliver. Not long ago we had to endure the metaverse hype, before that blockchain. No code/ low code has been around in some form as a a holy grail for management for decades. I haven’t stayed employable into my sixties by ignoring new things. I try to discern the useful and real from the hyped and fake. I don’t claim to know how LLMs or anything else will eventually play out, but I’ve seen this money-driven hypetrain and cults of personality before.
> Even the smartest people fall victim to this folly, even Einstein for a while could not accept the implications of quantum mechanics.
That of course works both ways.
If so-called AI offers benefits I will adapt, just as I’ve adapted to many new things during my career. If it fizzles out or falls short of the promises I will still have a job. Right now the AI coding tools add nothing for me. Other programmers may have different experiences.
Programmers with years of experience in multiple business domains, like me, have the least to fear from AI. I think excluding young people just starting their careers, at a time when an LLM can plausibly do the same work under supervision, will choke off the path to senior developer and the necessary mentoring and real-world experience. AI may create a demographic crisis even if it doesn’t actually replace senior programmers. The damage will come from management short-sightedness and short-term profit seeking, not the technology itself.
In any case the question of what AI can do or might do only has a little to do with layoffs in tech and other sectors, and that was the original topic.