3 ms·

New neighborhoods going up in Pasco and Hernando like the 2000s. They're sold out well before completion. The prices are at least as high as last year.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Call the builders and ask what the incentives are, seriously. My father surveys them as a mortgage originator on a weekly basis to know how much they're buying the buyer's rate down out of their margins. The fundamentals are showing weakness. These price levels for real estate are unsustainable, even assuming 50-100bps cuts by the Fed (rising insurance costs will also push prices down assuming buyers buy a PITI monthly payment, although insurance costs are a function of location and year of structure construction [based on building code and insurer risk appetite; the closer to the coast or older the structure, the more challenging and expensive to insure]). https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/01/construction-spending-fell-more-than-expected-in-may https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/01/construction-sp... https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/homebuilder-sentiment-june-2025.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/homebuilder-sentiment-june-2... https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homebuilder-price-cut-florida-housing-market/ https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homebuilder-price-cut-fl... https://www.wtsp.com/article/money/tampa-housing-market-shifting-slightly/67-5b1ce5e0-519d-421b-9261-886bb2d04c23 https://www.wtsp.com/article/money/tampa-housing-market-shif...
- WarOnPrivacy 1y ago
  > they're buying the buyer's rate down out of their margins. The fundamentals are showing weakness. These price levels for real estate are unsustainable I don't think this factors in demand pressures that are new to this market. Houses are increasingly built for mass corporate owners. Besides the aforementioned traditional neighborhood builds, we have additional single family neighborhoods being built exclusively to rent out. Where a owner-buyer might respond to a 5% variance in the market, those corporate owners don't care. Their houses generate revenue and they can self-insure. To them, an entire neighborhood is just another commercial venture. But that venture consumes home building resources just like traditional neighborhood builds do - except it does it without increasing the supply at all. edit: President King has decided he wants the Fed rate under 1%. Given the staggering amount of power being gifted to him, it could be 1,785,774th inappropriate demand that gets met.
  - appreciatorBus 1y ago
    > But that venture consumes home building resources just like traditional neighborhood builds do - except it does it without increasing the supply at all. “Home building resources” are not fixed, then can expand and contract like any other part of the economy. If lots of homes need to be built, more resources will be directed to them. (Unless forbidden by arbitrary central planners intent on forcing everyone to live in a single family house) And building an entire neighbourhod for rental most definitely increases the housing supply. If it did not exist, the people who would have rented should be forced to rent or buy elsewhere, pushing up rents and prices.
    - WarOnPrivacy 1y ago
      > “Home building resources” are not fixed, then can expand and contract like any other part of the economy. I never said building resources were fixed so not sure why you needed to rebut that. I did say the there was competition for them which infers 1) they are a limited resources and 2) more demand for them drives up costs. That might be mitigated somewhat if suppliers want to invest in and spin up new manufacturing - which may or may not happen depending on how shareholder pressure manifests.

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Call the builders and ask what the incentives are, seriously. My father surveys them as a mortgage originator on a weekly basis to know how much they're buying the buyer's rate down out of their margins. The fundamentals are showing weakness. These price levels for real estate are unsustainable, even assuming 50-100bps cuts by the Fed (rising insurance costs will also push prices down assuming buyers buy a PITI monthly payment, although insurance costs are a function of location and year of structure construction [based on building code and insurer risk appetite; the closer to the coast or older the structure, the more challenging and expensive to insure]). https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/01/construction-spending-fell-more-than-expected-in-may https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/01/construction-sp... https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/homebuilder-sentiment-june-2025.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/homebuilder-sentiment-june-2... https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homebuilder-price-cut-florida-housing-market/ https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homebuilder-price-cut-fl... https://www.wtsp.com/article/money/tampa-housing-market-shifting-slightly/67-5b1ce5e0-519d-421b-9261-886bb2d04c23 https://www.wtsp.com/article/money/tampa-housing-market-shif...

WarOnPrivacy 1y ago
> they're buying the buyer's rate down out of their margins. The fundamentals are showing weakness. These price levels for real estate are unsustainable I don't think this factors in demand pressures that are new to this market. Houses are increasingly built for mass corporate owners. Besides the aforementioned traditional neighborhood builds, we have additional single family neighborhoods being built exclusively to rent out. Where a owner-buyer might respond to a 5% variance in the market, those corporate owners don't care. Their houses generate revenue and they can self-insure. To them, an entire neighborhood is just another commercial venture. But that venture consumes home building resources just like traditional neighborhood builds do - except it does it without increasing the supply at all. edit: President King has decided he wants the Fed rate under 1%. Given the staggering amount of power being gifted to him, it could be 1,785,774th inappropriate demand that gets met.
- appreciatorBus 1y ago
  > But that venture consumes home building resources just like traditional neighborhood builds do - except it does it without increasing the supply at all. “Home building resources” are not fixed, then can expand and contract like any other part of the economy. If lots of homes need to be built, more resources will be directed to them. (Unless forbidden by arbitrary central planners intent on forcing everyone to live in a single family house) And building an entire neighbourhod for rental most definitely increases the housing supply. If it did not exist, the people who would have rented should be forced to rent or buy elsewhere, pushing up rents and prices.
  - WarOnPrivacy 1y ago
    > “Home building resources” are not fixed, then can expand and contract like any other part of the economy. I never said building resources were fixed so not sure why you needed to rebut that. I did say the there was competition for them which infers 1) they are a limited resources and 2) more demand for them drives up costs. That might be mitigated somewhat if suppliers want to invest in and spin up new manufacturing - which may or may not happen depending on how shareholder pressure manifests.