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As much as I’d like to continue debating with you I think we will just continue talking past each other. I didn’t address the possibility of AGI, the consensus

As much as I’d like to continue debating with you I think we will just continue talking past each other. I didn’t address the possibility of AGI, the consensus or “delta” of smart people, the utility of LLMs, or the prospect of OpenAI et al. someday making a profit in my original comment. You raised those issues and then put words in my mouth. My original comment amounted to an Occam’s Razor argument: we can explain layoffs in terms of tax changes, economic and political uncertainty, over-hiring during COVID, and management incompetence. The impact of AI remains to be seen. The hype and fear-mongering serves the AI companies in a blatantly obvious way, so we should take their claims skeptically. Maybe it will all come true, but even if we get AGI next week that won’t explain the layoffs in tech and other sectors that started several years ago. In a few years we will have more evidence to support (or not) AGI, whatever it means. And we will have more evidence of the real economic impact of AI. Right now no one can claim expertise, just opinions.

atleastoptimal 1y ago
I feel that it’s important to make a note of the kinds of discussions people have on this site which commonly recur yet offer no benefit to either party. Some of our disagreements lie in the realm of speculative confidence and thus whether either one of us is correct is up to our biases and trust in various sources. However, there are some points of disagreement which I feel don’t factor in the very real nuts and bolts realities and are tiresome to see brought up. However I believe you and many others are, due to a fear or animosity towards the implications of near term AGI, are engaged in motivated reasoning. Even the smartest people fall victim to this folly, even Einstein for a while could not accept the implications of quantum mechanics. You seem like a very smart person, so I implore you to audit the motivations driving your conclusions, and whether you would be willing to entertain ideas that are correct despite being unpalatable. The ability to accept and effectively grapple with unsavory realities is a massively useful skill in a world where long held assumptions are being upended every day.
- gregjor 1y ago
  > However I believe you and many others are, due to a fear or animosity towards the implications of near term AGI, are engaged in motivated reasoning. Not fear or animosity. I have over 40 years in software development. I’ve seen numerous fads and supposedly revolutionary tech ideas get pushed hard only to fade away, or fail to deliver. Not long ago we had to endure the metaverse hype, before that blockchain. No code/ low code has been around in some form as a a holy grail for management for decades. I haven’t stayed employable into my sixties by ignoring new things. I try to discern the useful and real from the hyped and fake. I don’t claim to know how LLMs or anything else will eventually play out, but I’ve seen this money-driven hypetrain and cults of personality before. > Even the smartest people fall victim to this folly, even Einstein for a while could not accept the implications of quantum mechanics. That of course works both ways. If so-called AI offers benefits I will adapt, just as I’ve adapted to many new things during my career. If it fizzles out or falls short of the promises I will still have a job. Right now the AI coding tools add nothing for me. Other programmers may have different experiences. Programmers with years of experience in multiple business domains, like me, have the least to fear from AI. I think excluding young people just starting their careers, at a time when an LLM can plausibly do the same work under supervision, will choke off the path to senior developer and the necessary mentoring and real-world experience. AI may create a demographic crisis even if it doesn’t actually replace senior programmers. The damage will come from management short-sightedness and short-term profit seeking, not the technology itself. In any case the question of what AI can do or might do only has a little to do with layoffs in tech and other sectors, and that was the original topic.

atleastoptimal 1y ago

I feel that it’s important to make a note of the kinds of discussions people have on this site which commonly recur yet offer no benefit to either party. Some of our disagreements lie in the realm of speculative confidence and thus whether either one of us is correct is up to our biases and trust in various sources. However, there are some points of disagreement which I feel don’t factor in the very real nuts and bolts realities and are tiresome to see brought up. However I believe you and many others are, due to a fear or animosity towards the implications of near term AGI, are engaged in motivated reasoning. Even the smartest people fall victim to this folly, even Einstein for a while could not accept the implications of quantum mechanics. You seem like a very smart person, so I implore you to audit the motivations driving your conclusions, and whether you would be willing to entertain ideas that are correct despite being unpalatable. The ability to accept and effectively grapple with unsavory realities is a massively useful skill in a world where long held assumptions are being upended every day.

gregjor 1y ago
> However I believe you and many others are, due to a fear or animosity towards the implications of near term AGI, are engaged in motivated reasoning. Not fear or animosity. I have over 40 years in software development. I’ve seen numerous fads and supposedly revolutionary tech ideas get pushed hard only to fade away, or fail to deliver. Not long ago we had to endure the metaverse hype, before that blockchain. No code/ low code has been around in some form as a a holy grail for management for decades. I haven’t stayed employable into my sixties by ignoring new things. I try to discern the useful and real from the hyped and fake. I don’t claim to know how LLMs or anything else will eventually play out, but I’ve seen this money-driven hypetrain and cults of personality before. > Even the smartest people fall victim to this folly, even Einstein for a while could not accept the implications of quantum mechanics. That of course works both ways. If so-called AI offers benefits I will adapt, just as I’ve adapted to many new things during my career. If it fizzles out or falls short of the promises I will still have a job. Right now the AI coding tools add nothing for me. Other programmers may have different experiences. Programmers with years of experience in multiple business domains, like me, have the least to fear from AI. I think excluding young people just starting their careers, at a time when an LLM can plausibly do the same work under supervision, will choke off the path to senior developer and the necessary mentoring and real-world experience. AI may create a demographic crisis even if it doesn’t actually replace senior programmers. The damage will come from management short-sightedness and short-term profit seeking, not the technology itself. In any case the question of what AI can do or might do only has a little to do with layoffs in tech and other sectors, and that was the original topic.