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The hyper car argument is really just a digression and it cuts both ways (which I think was the posters point). If you want to compare hyper car prices, you nee

by bumby 1y ago

The hyper car argument is really just a digression and it cuts both ways (which I think was the posters point). If you want to compare hyper car prices, you need to compare hyper gas-only to hyper hybrid. But that’s not really germane to the generalizations being used here. Where is your 98% claim coming from? The other poster made no such claim. The irony is there is published info on TCO from companies like Edmunds and Kelly Blue Book. We can take umbrage with some of the factors or weighting, but it’s a better starting point in real data than anything bright up so far. A claim could easily be crafted using such information that addresses everything I’ve raised (maintenance, depreciation, different designs, etc). Yet the discussion seems almost wholly based on vibes and near-ideological bias. It reads to me as conclusions searching for data instead of the other way around. The best I can tell from that information, TCO is largely a wash. For comparable manufacturers/designs, TCO over the first 5-10 years seems to be about the same. You can pick some designs that favor one side or the other, but in general they are roughly within 10% (usually considerably less) of one another. Given the uncertainty due to the variables in question, it seems reasonable to conclude there aren’t strong conclusions on TCO differences between them.

Retric 1y ago
98% just meant not rare, as the person referenced “rare cars” vs everything else. I’ve already looked at that those real work TCO numbers for a bunch of cars, that’s part of why I’m saying they’re reliable and lower TCO. But there’s a big difference between saying that on average these things break down less across all hybrids and saying every single hybrid model is more reliable.
- bumby 1y ago
  I agree there’s a difference. The OP I originally responded to made the claim “Hybrids have a lower TCO even though they have a higher initial purchase price.” That’s a general claim, and I was seeking information that can support it. I’ve largely received strong general conclusions based on weak general evidence. When pushed, people will seem to cherry pick specific cases, which to you point, isn’t good enough to support the original general claim. Perhaps we’re looking at different data (in which case I’d be interested in understanding why you like one set over the other), but in aggregate, I couldn’t find strong evidence that supports on side or the other.
  - Retric 1y ago
    The majority of hybrids ~70% fall under these models: Toyota RAV4 Hybrid, Toyota Highlander Hybrid, Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry Hybrid, Honda CR-V Hybrid, Ford Escape Hybrid, Ford Fusion Hybrid, and Honda Accord Hybrid which have a lower TCO than their gas’s equivalents. I don’t think we need to consider low production edge cases, to make a statement about the general case.
    - bumby 1y ago
      We may be seeing differences in locality, but the first one I checked (Escape) did not support your claim. The gas variant was cheaper than both the hybrid (8% lower) and the plug-in hybrid (24% lower) in TCO. I think this just speaks to my previous point about variance impacting our ability to make strong general claims.
      - Retric 1y ago
        Make sure you’re comparing equal trim levels. PHEV has 18-inch wheels Heated front seats Heated steering wheel Partial vinyl and cloth upholstery 13.2-inch infotainment touchscreen Navigation system Adaptive cruise control (adjusts speed to maintain a constant distance between the Escape and the car in front) Lane keeping system (makes minor steering corrections to help keep the vehicle centered in its lane) Evasive steering assistance (enhances the forward collision mitigation system with steering-based collision avoidance) Rear parking sensors (alert you to obstacles that may not be visible behind the vehicle when parking)
        bumby 1y ago
        Good point. After adjusting for trim level, the gas is still cheaper but not as dramatically. If I had to guess, you may be getting numbers from a high fuel cost locale. In the end, I don’t think the conclusion that it’s largely a wash is unreasonable. There will be areas with higher cost and those with lower cost.
vel0city 1y ago
> For comparable manufacturers/designs That's the thing though, you're lumping all hybrid drivetrains in together and assuming they're all equally reliable and equally have the same TCO math, as if "hybrid" means only one thing. I've been trying to tell you, "hybrid" means a lot of different things and really shouldn't be seen as one technology, "depending on drive trains compared" and all. Which is why I made a big point of mentioning my usage of "series", which flew right over your head. When I'm talking about a bespke battery on a low-market car, I'm not talking about some hybrid supercar. I'm talking more about the hybrid compliance car trim levels that are only really sold in small numbers in some markets, like the Ford Explorer Hybrid. You practically won't find them in most states, they were essentially only delivered to a few markets in very small numbers. Its components are far more bespoke and thus expensive to find replacements. Pretty much nobody makes remanufactured batteries for this car. It's a parallel hybrid, so it still has all the complexity and reliability of the traditional ICE drive train. This is pretty much true of a lot of "the same ICE car, but now hybrid!" They're often going to be low production models, bespoke batteries, and probably a parallel hybrid. And I agree, good chance the TCO won't work out in the hybrid's favor in the end. Compared to something like the Prius or Maverick Hybrid or the new RAV4, which are extremely mass market. These have a much different drive train than that Explorer Hybrid, being e-CVTs. There's a big market for remanufactured batteries since there are so many more out there. Parts are considerably cheaper, and thus they have (or will probably have, the new RAV4s are still new) low TCO. Its not fair to group the Explorer Hybrid and the Maverick together as one category of "hybrid", since they're such different designs on how they operate leading to radically different outcomes on TCO.
- bumby 1y ago
  >you're lumping all hybrid drivetrains in together and assuming they're all equally reliable and equally have the same TCO math I’m not though, you’re just making that assumption. For example, as “comparable manufacturers” if I select Toyota (because it has a reputation for reliability) I can compare the Prius to the Corolla (because they’re both at a similar price point in their respective categories). This “should” favor the Prius because the Corolla has a CVT (which is known to be less reliable) but TCO comes out about 8% lower for the Corolla. I’m not lumping all together, I’m deliberately trying to make reasonable comparisons. Now I could also pick and choose to go the other way with a similar comparison. The end result seems to be that there is a distribution of differences that are reasonably close, but with enough variance to say it looks like a wash in TCO. Point being, strong conclusions may not be warranted. >Which is why I made a big point of mentioning my usage of "series", which flew right over your head. It did not go over my head. In fact, I brought it up in the very first post before you responded. [1] I even reminded you of that [2]. This is why I’m saying it seems like you are reflexively responding without actually reading for comprehension or clarity. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44422207 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44422207 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44424531 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44424531

by bumby 1y ago

Retric 1y ago

98% just meant not rare, as the person referenced “rare cars” vs everything else. I’ve already looked at that those real work TCO numbers for a bunch of cars, that’s part of why I’m saying they’re reliable and lower TCO. But there’s a big difference between saying that on average these things break down less across all hybrids and saying every single hybrid model is more reliable.

bumby 1y ago
I agree there’s a difference. The OP I originally responded to made the claim “Hybrids have a lower TCO even though they have a higher initial purchase price.” That’s a general claim, and I was seeking information that can support it. I’ve largely received strong general conclusions based on weak general evidence. When pushed, people will seem to cherry pick specific cases, which to you point, isn’t good enough to support the original general claim. Perhaps we’re looking at different data (in which case I’d be interested in understanding why you like one set over the other), but in aggregate, I couldn’t find strong evidence that supports on side or the other.
- Retric 1y ago
  The majority of hybrids ~70% fall under these models: Toyota RAV4 Hybrid, Toyota Highlander Hybrid, Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry Hybrid, Honda CR-V Hybrid, Ford Escape Hybrid, Ford Fusion Hybrid, and Honda Accord Hybrid which have a lower TCO than their gas’s equivalents. I don’t think we need to consider low production edge cases, to make a statement about the general case.
  - bumby 1y ago
    We may be seeing differences in locality, but the first one I checked (Escape) did not support your claim. The gas variant was cheaper than both the hybrid (8% lower) and the plug-in hybrid (24% lower) in TCO. I think this just speaks to my previous point about variance impacting our ability to make strong general claims.
    - Retric 1y ago
      Make sure you’re comparing equal trim levels. PHEV has 18-inch wheels Heated front seats Heated steering wheel Partial vinyl and cloth upholstery 13.2-inch infotainment touchscreen Navigation system Adaptive cruise control (adjusts speed to maintain a constant distance between the Escape and the car in front) Lane keeping system (makes minor steering corrections to help keep the vehicle centered in its lane) Evasive steering assistance (enhances the forward collision mitigation system with steering-based collision avoidance) Rear parking sensors (alert you to obstacles that may not be visible behind the vehicle when parking)
      - bumby 1y ago
        Good point. After adjusting for trim level, the gas is still cheaper but not as dramatically. If I had to guess, you may be getting numbers from a high fuel cost locale. In the end, I don’t think the conclusion that it’s largely a wash is unreasonable. There will be areas with higher cost and those with lower cost.

vel0city 1y ago

> For comparable manufacturers/designs That's the thing though, you're lumping all hybrid drivetrains in together and assuming they're all equally reliable and equally have the same TCO math, as if "hybrid" means only one thing. I've been trying to tell you, "hybrid" means a lot of different things and really shouldn't be seen as one technology, "depending on drive trains compared" and all. Which is why I made a big point of mentioning my usage of "series", which flew right over your head. When I'm talking about a bespke battery on a low-market car, I'm not talking about some hybrid supercar. I'm talking more about the hybrid compliance car trim levels that are only really sold in small numbers in some markets, like the Ford Explorer Hybrid. You practically won't find them in most states, they were essentially only delivered to a few markets in very small numbers. Its components are far more bespoke and thus expensive to find replacements. Pretty much nobody makes remanufactured batteries for this car. It's a parallel hybrid, so it still has all the complexity and reliability of the traditional ICE drive train. This is pretty much true of a lot of "the same ICE car, but now hybrid!" They're often going to be low production models, bespoke batteries, and probably a parallel hybrid. And I agree, good chance the TCO won't work out in the hybrid's favor in the end. Compared to something like the Prius or Maverick Hybrid or the new RAV4, which are extremely mass market. These have a much different drive train than that Explorer Hybrid, being e-CVTs. There's a big market for remanufactured batteries since there are so many more out there. Parts are considerably cheaper, and thus they have (or will probably have, the new RAV4s are still new) low TCO. Its not fair to group the Explorer Hybrid and the Maverick together as one category of "hybrid", since they're such different designs on how they operate leading to radically different outcomes on TCO.

bumby 1y ago
>you're lumping all hybrid drivetrains in together and assuming they're all equally reliable and equally have the same TCO math I’m not though, you’re just making that assumption. For example, as “comparable manufacturers” if I select Toyota (because it has a reputation for reliability) I can compare the Prius to the Corolla (because they’re both at a similar price point in their respective categories). This “should” favor the Prius because the Corolla has a CVT (which is known to be less reliable) but TCO comes out about 8% lower for the Corolla. I’m not lumping all together, I’m deliberately trying to make reasonable comparisons. Now I could also pick and choose to go the other way with a similar comparison. The end result seems to be that there is a distribution of differences that are reasonably close, but with enough variance to say it looks like a wash in TCO. Point being, strong conclusions may not be warranted. >Which is why I made a big point of mentioning my usage of "series", which flew right over your head. It did not go over my head. In fact, I brought it up in the very first post before you responded. [1] I even reminded you of that [2]. This is why I’m saying it seems like you are reflexively responding without actually reading for comprehension or clarity. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44422207 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44422207 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44424531 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44424531