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I think one counterpoint to this idea is the compute cost. To a great extent, it's not AI research that is the primary driver behind the huge advances in AI, e
by tsimionescu 1y ago
I think one counterpoint to this idea is the compute cost.
To a great extent, it's not AI research that is the primary driver behind the huge advances in AI, either in terms of techniques (transformers) or data sets. Instead, the biggest single factor responsible for this huge boost are advances in compute hardware and compute power in general. Even if we had known about the Transformer architecture 20 years earlier, and we had had the datasets that OpenAI and Google amassed 20 years earlier, we still would not have been able to get anywhere close to training an LLM on hardware from 20 years ago.
And given this, and given that LLMs have already pushed this compute power to the limit, it's very possible that we'll stagnate at more or less the current level unless and until a new 10x or even 100x boost in compute power happens. It's very unlikely that you could train a model on 100x as much data as you get today without that, which is what you would likely require to add multiple modalities and then combine them.
- lupire 1y agoTick-tock model. Research switches between adding new ideas and pouring more power into good ideas.