2 ms·
Im sorry, I think the line scribbling idea is neat but the most salient part of this prediction (how longs this going to take) depends utterly on the scale of t
by Fraterkes 1y ago
Im sorry, I think the line scribbling idea is neat but the most salient part of this prediction (how longs this going to take) depends utterly on the scale of the x-axis. If you made x go to 2200 instead of 2050 you could overlay the exact same set of “plausible” lines.
- myrmidon 1y agoI do agree that the method is sensitive to X-scaling (and also Y-scale, which is logarithmic here!)-- but the "methodology" is at least defensible: scale X/Y to make existing data appear linear and make the "linear extrapolation in scribble space" meet the deadline at the middle of your X-axis. I'm honestly kinda curious how well this "scribble-forecasting" actually works, but to me this sounds like it could be better than you'd expect from something this silly (but I honestly think that most utility comes from suitably picking between linear, log and semi-log plotspace, allowing you to approximate any linear, polynomial or exponential relationship with a straight scribble...)
- Fraterkes 1y agoAh I guess you are completely right about that. I still don't think the article is very substansive but I agree my critiscism isn't really fair.