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Gartner Predicts over 40% of Agentic AI Projects Will Be Canceled by End of 2027

30 points by vaxman 1y ago

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
senko 1y ago
I can easily believe that number. However it's unclear how they arrived to it. Can anyone with a Gartner subscription take a look to see if this passes a smell test?
- handfuloflight 1y ago
  Probably going to be closer to a pareto distribution.
- vaxman 1y ago
  In business, perception often is taken for reality (just look at how long people clung to DOS-Windows when there were far better Amigas and Macs for sale). Gartner.hasHistoryOfSettingPerceptionInFortune500Companies == YES
  - josefritzishere 1y ago
    The "Gartner effect" is very real.
boringuser1 1y ago
[dead]
thm 1y ago
TIL: "agent washing"
normie3000 1y ago
So a 60% success rate for these projects? Sounds like good odds!
- bGl2YW5j 1y ago
  If you define success simply as “not cancelled”, then yes, fantastic odds
  - shesstillamodel 1y ago
    A good fraction of the ones not cancelled will be the real pain.
  - th3iedkid 1y ago
    isn't that what enterprises "strive" for...
stego-tech 1y ago
I can believe it. Agentic AI only really succeeds in the long run when it’s built atop pristine data sources that are themselves automatically maintained and carefully curated. And have you seen how large enterprises approach data? They threw that into a buzzword half a decade ago and haven’t improved upon it since. My gut read: * 40-50% will be outright cancelled by EoCY 27 * 30-40% will soldier onward with a specific model in use, on preserved systems * 10-30% will be “successful”, actually creating business value by working on live data and in specific use cases (namely read-only chatbots pulling from CRM or other “live” systems) * <10% will be “runaway successes”, in the form of permanently eliminating a job function from an enterprise or organization and producing significantly more value than they consume.
dagw 1y ago
What percentage of all software projects started in the past 12 month will be cancelled by the end of 2027?
josefritzishere 1y ago
This sounds about right. As fads go, it's a very expensive fad.

30 points by vaxman 1y ago

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

I can easily believe that number. However it's unclear how they arrived to it. Can anyone with a Gartner subscription take a look to see if this passes a smell test?

handfuloflight 1y ago
Probably going to be closer to a pareto distribution.
vaxman 1y ago
In business, perception often is taken for reality (just look at how long people clung to DOS-Windows when there were far better Amigas and Macs for sale). Gartner.hasHistoryOfSettingPerceptionInFortune500Companies == YES
- josefritzishere 1y ago
  The "Gartner effect" is very real.

boringuser1 1y ago

[dead]

thm 1y ago

TIL: "agent washing"

normie3000 1y ago

So a 60% success rate for these projects? Sounds like good odds!

bGl2YW5j 1y ago
If you define success simply as “not cancelled”, then yes, fantastic odds
- shesstillamodel 1y ago
  A good fraction of the ones not cancelled will be the real pain.
- th3iedkid 1y ago
  isn't that what enterprises "strive" for...

stego-tech 1y ago

I can believe it. Agentic AI only really succeeds in the long run when it’s built atop pristine data sources that are themselves automatically maintained and carefully curated. And have you seen how large enterprises approach data? They threw that into a buzzword half a decade ago and haven’t improved upon it since. My gut read: * 40-50% will be outright cancelled by EoCY 27 * 30-40% will soldier onward with a specific model in use, on preserved systems * 10-30% will be “successful”, actually creating business value by working on live data and in specific use cases (namely read-only chatbots pulling from CRM or other “live” systems) * <10% will be “runaway successes”, in the form of permanently eliminating a job function from an enterprise or organization and producing significantly more value than they consume.

dagw 1y ago

What percentage of all software projects started in the past 12 month will be cancelled by the end of 2027?

josefritzishere 1y ago

This sounds about right. As fads go, it's a very expensive fad.