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Size of machines is pretty amazing. The PDP-10s and 360/67s Knuth was talking about in 01974 were about 1 MIPS (with 32-bit or 36-bit operations) and could sca
by kragen 1y ago
Size of machines is pretty amazing. The PDP-10s and 360/67s Knuth was talking about in 01974 were about 1 MIPS (with 32-bit or 36-bit operations) and could scale as high as 16 mebibytes of RAM. Today you can put 6 tebibytes in a 384-core two-socket AMD server that can do in excess of 10 trillion 32-bit operations per second: 6 orders of magnitude more RAM, 7 orders of magnitude more arithmetic.
But that's really understating the case, because those were large shared mainframes. Today's equivalent would be not a 2-socket rackmount server, or even a whole rack, but quite plausibly a whole data center, three more orders of magnitude. 9 orders of magnitude more RAM, 10 orders of magnitude more arithmetic.
Probably also worth mentioning that the absolute number of computers has also increased a lot; every USB-C power brick contains a multi-MIPS computer.
I agree that the number of devs has increased by only about four or five orders of magnitude. In 01974 I'd guess there might have been 50,000 programmers; my grandparents took programming classes around that time involving batch submission of punched cards, and that was a reasonably common thing at US universities. Today, Roblox has 380 million monthly active users; what percentage of them write their own games in it? And the popular programming environments Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets have over a billion users each.