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What a lot of "AI doomers" don't understand is that if they are right, then most of their businesses are done. The CEO that sits there thinking "it's now so eas
by tom_m 1y ago
What a lot of "AI doomers" don't understand is that if they are right, then most of their businesses are done. The CEO that sits there thinking "it's now so easy to make software and we can move so fast! Faster than our competitors! We won't need programmers one day." ...
They don't get it. Foolishly short sighted. That means their customers won't need them either.
If anyone can make software then the value is next to nothing (just LLM token cost). Every business that needs software will just make their own. It'll be the guy in the office who fixes the printer or the "web master."
SaaS is so cooked. The entire industry implodes. The demand for things decreases. That includes more than software of course - computers too. In the future companies like Apple are probably done. They won't be able to survive on the luxury angle and their top customers are programmers and content creators. AI makes that easier and in the cloud.
So if you want to be a doomer...Go on. Keep following the trail of what happens.
In the end it'll be 2-5 mega corps that survive. Amazon is probably locked in due to consumer goods and AWS. Google is always my bet for surviving the AI wars. The rest of the big companies you know are kinda fighting for their lives right now.
My prediction is OpenAI is out. Apple is out or greatly scaled back. Anthropic is out. Salesforce over.
Tesla and Meta are questionable right now. They could survive and they could be out too. Musk diversified with all his companies which was incredibly smart. So that's too hard to predict. I don't have a good feeling about his AI prospects though.
What's worse yet is that if venture capitalists believe this, then investments are over. The whole industry just implodes.
Anyway, if you want to really go down this path. It gets pretty dark.
I choose to believe AI will create more jobs. Just like the computer did and the internet. You could imagine how people felt about the computer too. Robotics too. Oh that's going to take away jobs and factory jobs. Well yea, parts were automated and all, but people just found other work. It led to more jobs. So I choose to believe the same will happen here, it's just not realized yet.