Yep, only yield improvements and equipment depreciation are really in the cards. Cost per transistor increased from 7nm to 5nm, but we're about at breakeven wit

Yep, only yield improvements and equipment depreciation are really in the cards. Cost per transistor increased from 7nm to 5nm, but we're about at breakeven with 3nm again. If there's not real fab competition at 2nm then prices per transistor likely won't fall. I suspect the same is true at 1nm. It doesn't feel like any of the alternatives (CNT etc) are really able to step up right now either. https://www.chipstrat.com/p/what-happens-if-tsmc-controls-it https://www.chipstrat.com/p/what-happens-if-tsmc-controls-it My feeling is that algorithmic improvements to LLMs may continue for another order of magnitude or two though. That could continue the scaling for a while. Of course fixed development costs are now over $1B at 2nm, so if you're not making a large number of die (>1M at $1k/ea), it makes no sense to scale.