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No disagreements with the article. Best to be clear eyed as this comes down the pipe. Getting told 'we will fire you as soon as we can' is not a great workplace

No disagreements with the article. Best to be clear eyed as this comes down the pipe. Getting told 'we will fire you as soon as we can' is not a great workplace, but the bigger indictment of management here is that they have no plan for growth. If your people are more productive, you could invest that in more ambitious projects if you had any good ideas about new opportunities. You look at Andy Jassy's company wide memo referenced in the article and it starts with 'we are the world's largest start up', followed by claims of increased productivity that will be applied toward cost cutting instead of growth. Most VC's would pass on a 'start up' that has such an apparent no/slow growth mentality.

oytis 1y ago
I have this impression as well. AI, interest rates are secondary. Tech industry has just run out of ideas that would promise profits - and that didn't start in 2023. Same story as with "overhiring". If you have a bigger crew, you just go plunder bigger ships - except if the ships are just not there or you have no idea how to find them.
- MichaelZuo 1y ago
  How do you know this? From what I’ve heard cream of the crop grads in hot fields are still getting huge offers and getting snapped up by the big names as well as smaller firms. Some of those must be real positions doing promising work.
  - oblio 1y ago
    > From what I’ve heard cream of the crop grads in hot fields are still getting huge offers and getting snapped up by the big names as well as smaller firms. Yeah, but that's making the distribution something like 1-5% vs 95-95% versus maybe 30-40% - 60-70% 5-10 years ago. The shift is significant. > Some of those must be real positions doing promising work. Of course, there are always ad optimizations and engagement optimizations to be made :-p
    - MichaelZuo 1y ago
      Were 60th or 70th percentile grads getting huge offers 5-10 years ago? In which fields?
      - oblio 1y ago
        I was talking about IT and the percentages were the other way around.
- throwaway48476 1y ago
  It's not that there are no ideas just no one willing to invest in anything that takes longer than 1 year or involves hardware. Most all new unicorn businesses are just rent seeking platforms. There's absolutely zero interest in creating value, only capturing it from someone else.
- candiddevmike 1y ago
  There's tons of ideas, but there's also too many good enough bad ideas with inertia/$$$ that don't want competition.
- nixpulvis 1y ago
  It's not just that, but it's also that more and more people are getting into the industry for its promise of high paying relatively cushy jobs. Just look at university CS major enrollments. Not to mention bootcamps and accelerated programs. I've been feeling like this has been coming long before AI doomsayers were a thing. The problem is that it's surprisingly difficult to judge candidates from the interview process, so the expectation value of a new hire has a lot of uncertainty. And while degrees from good schools are a good indicator, tech jobs perhaps unlike medical or legal fields, for example, are not the end all be all for success. It's entirely possible to be smart and self motivated and taught.
- klabb3 1y ago
  Interest rates matter, and having a global reserve currency helps capital markets that fund these things. I would suggest 3 other forces: - saturation: we don’t have any legacy fields left that aren’t yet digitized. If you I go from encyclopedia -> search engine or taxi -> uber you have a first mover green field market - dominance games: VCs want scale, and scale is difficult with niche markets. Yet there are innovations there, but who cares? A new shitcoin has the potential to scale quickly, whereas startups in even energy seems to be a downer for them - no manufacturing: long iteration cycles on anything that needs hardware. Plus, lower margins, and the Chinese will sell cheap knockoffs anyway if you’re successful, so bigger risk. Thus, more shitcoin and AI wrappers.
- stego-tech 1y ago
  > Tech industry has just run out of ideas that would promise profits - and that didn't start in 2023. This, and it’s not getting enough attention. Big Tech hasn’t had ideas other than acquisitions for decades. Startups aren’t inventing new things, just honing existing tech into an acquirable moat. Their big moonshots have failed one by one, with their two remaining ones - AI (current) and Quantum (next) - on their last legs of patience with shareholders. NFTs, Crypto, the “Metaverse”, Big Data, the Cloud, all of these have had varying degrees of initial success but now see scrutiny in the face of dwindling funds and rising costs, which is forcing Big Tech to try and adapt to being mature entities rather than startups. It extends from B2B into the B2C realm as well. Yearly refreshes are increasingly underwhelming as components stop scaling like they did in the past, bumping up against physical limitations of materials that can’t be overcome without substantial R&D. R&D that they don’t want to pay for, because it’s high risk and high reward (a scenario tech isn’t really used to anymore). Nobody’s swinging for the fences, just incrementing very slowly over time until someone else does the heavy lifting who they can poach in an acquisition. It’s bad, ya’ll.
candiddevmike 1y ago
I don't understand why GenAI hasn't replaced middle management yet. One VP should be able to use GenAI stuff to manage hundreds+ of direct reports. They'd be able to ask agents for status updates whenever that part of their gray matter wakes up, and there'd be less meetings for everyone.
- paulddraper 1y ago
  It has to some extent. Note how often product managers or engineering managers appear in layoffs. Just happened to a neighbor.
  - apwell23 1y ago
    EMs are usually safer unless the whole team is being vanished. which also happens but IC layoffs are more common.
- apwell23 1y ago
  ceos love love love middle management. Its their favorite thing in the world. They are addicted to it. Ignore all the talk about 'the flattening' . middle management is back with a vengeance, bigger than ever, at meta and airbnb.
- MangoToupe 1y ago
  I can't my finger on exactly why, but I have the strong feeling that having a liable human is greatly desired. Perhaps because upper management themselves don't want to be liable for managing an AI.
- Spooky23 1y ago
  The AI isn’t accountable. A lot of the AI purging is a dressing up the ridiculous over hiring at these big companies and anticipating the economic malaise to come. This fall is going to be a bloodbath.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- 1y ago
paulddraper 1y ago
> we will fire you as soon as we can HN used to ridicule bloated organizations. “Why is there 1000 people? That’s a weekend project plus support.” Now it defends them.
- Spooky23 1y ago
  Old skool HN was about starting companies. Most of the startups are pretty meh these days and everyone wants to go hide in some massive company that is printing money. The big growth era is over. We’re entering an era of conglomerates and bullshit government back scratching. The big tech companies are going to be like 1960’s ITT, FMC, etc.
- blululu 1y ago
  I think this is something else. These plans are not about cutting moribund departments that produce nothing. These are plans to fire people who are currently performing well and delivering for the company absent any downturn. This is very different than cutting bloat in that these people are currently holding up their end of the bargain for employment. Personally I would also suggest that seeking gains that come 100% at the expense of a business partner is a real asshole move. HN also used to ridicule organizations that have no vision for future growth. From a business perspective the more scathing indictment of these executives is that they have no plan for capitalizing on AI. If a VC asked a startup what they would do with an extra X engineers or $Y in cloud credits, and the answer is "we would do the same things we are doing now" the VC would probably pass on the company. AI gives you twice the engineers. If your company doesn't have any plans to take advantage of this opportunity then it is already in decline.
stego-tech 1y ago
The cold comfort for folks displaced by AI at major employers is that there’s still a glut of smaller ones that don’t use AI (either due to affordability, politics, or AI just can’t do what humans can). The issue with LLMs as the current AI-du-jour is that while they might replace the copy-pasters at Big Tech companies, these same companies are also assuming that AI is desired or usable in every other company or organization as well - which it’s not. Once you deviate away from Big Tech stuff, their products just don’t integrate with the rest of the market very well. Manufacturing concerns might still be migrating to IPv4 and Ethernet PLCs, small businesses might not have the budget for AI Agent creation and retraining, and medium enterprises might be too bespoke to use AI effectively. That doesn't even touch the glut of companies who still do work on paper, not digitally, and who still need assistance with their digital transformation. They’re calculating that their toys can eventually replace 80% of workers, and man they’re wrong.
- nyarlathotep_ 1y ago
  > while they might replace the copy-pasters at Big Tech companies, Are there really 'copy-pasters' at 'BIg Tech' companies?

oytis 1y ago

I have this impression as well. AI, interest rates are secondary. Tech industry has just run out of ideas that would promise profits - and that didn't start in 2023. Same story as with "overhiring". If you have a bigger crew, you just go plunder bigger ships - except if the ships are just not there or you have no idea how to find them.

MichaelZuo 1y ago
How do you know this? From what I’ve heard cream of the crop grads in hot fields are still getting huge offers and getting snapped up by the big names as well as smaller firms. Some of those must be real positions doing promising work.
- oblio 1y ago
  > From what I’ve heard cream of the crop grads in hot fields are still getting huge offers and getting snapped up by the big names as well as smaller firms. Yeah, but that's making the distribution something like 1-5% vs 95-95% versus maybe 30-40% - 60-70% 5-10 years ago. The shift is significant. > Some of those must be real positions doing promising work. Of course, there are always ad optimizations and engagement optimizations to be made :-p
  - MichaelZuo 1y ago
    Were 60th or 70th percentile grads getting huge offers 5-10 years ago? In which fields?
    - oblio 1y ago
      I was talking about IT and the percentages were the other way around.
throwaway48476 1y ago
It's not that there are no ideas just no one willing to invest in anything that takes longer than 1 year or involves hardware. Most all new unicorn businesses are just rent seeking platforms. There's absolutely zero interest in creating value, only capturing it from someone else.
candiddevmike 1y ago
There's tons of ideas, but there's also too many good enough bad ideas with inertia/$$$ that don't want competition.
nixpulvis 1y ago
It's not just that, but it's also that more and more people are getting into the industry for its promise of high paying relatively cushy jobs. Just look at university CS major enrollments. Not to mention bootcamps and accelerated programs. I've been feeling like this has been coming long before AI doomsayers were a thing. The problem is that it's surprisingly difficult to judge candidates from the interview process, so the expectation value of a new hire has a lot of uncertainty. And while degrees from good schools are a good indicator, tech jobs perhaps unlike medical or legal fields, for example, are not the end all be all for success. It's entirely possible to be smart and self motivated and taught.
klabb3 1y ago
Interest rates matter, and having a global reserve currency helps capital markets that fund these things. I would suggest 3 other forces: - saturation: we don’t have any legacy fields left that aren’t yet digitized. If you I go from encyclopedia -> search engine or taxi -> uber you have a first mover green field market - dominance games: VCs want scale, and scale is difficult with niche markets. Yet there are innovations there, but who cares? A new shitcoin has the potential to scale quickly, whereas startups in even energy seems to be a downer for them - no manufacturing: long iteration cycles on anything that needs hardware. Plus, lower margins, and the Chinese will sell cheap knockoffs anyway if you’re successful, so bigger risk. Thus, more shitcoin and AI wrappers.
stego-tech 1y ago
> Tech industry has just run out of ideas that would promise profits - and that didn't start in 2023. This, and it’s not getting enough attention. Big Tech hasn’t had ideas other than acquisitions for decades. Startups aren’t inventing new things, just honing existing tech into an acquirable moat. Their big moonshots have failed one by one, with their two remaining ones - AI (current) and Quantum (next) - on their last legs of patience with shareholders. NFTs, Crypto, the “Metaverse”, Big Data, the Cloud, all of these have had varying degrees of initial success but now see scrutiny in the face of dwindling funds and rising costs, which is forcing Big Tech to try and adapt to being mature entities rather than startups. It extends from B2B into the B2C realm as well. Yearly refreshes are increasingly underwhelming as components stop scaling like they did in the past, bumping up against physical limitations of materials that can’t be overcome without substantial R&D. R&D that they don’t want to pay for, because it’s high risk and high reward (a scenario tech isn’t really used to anymore). Nobody’s swinging for the fences, just incrementing very slowly over time until someone else does the heavy lifting who they can poach in an acquisition. It’s bad, ya’ll.

candiddevmike 1y ago

I don't understand why GenAI hasn't replaced middle management yet. One VP should be able to use GenAI stuff to manage hundreds+ of direct reports. They'd be able to ask agents for status updates whenever that part of their gray matter wakes up, and there'd be less meetings for everyone.

paulddraper 1y ago
It has to some extent. Note how often product managers or engineering managers appear in layoffs. Just happened to a neighbor.
- apwell23 1y ago
  EMs are usually safer unless the whole team is being vanished. which also happens but IC layoffs are more common.
apwell23 1y ago
ceos love love love middle management. Its their favorite thing in the world. They are addicted to it. Ignore all the talk about 'the flattening' . middle management is back with a vengeance, bigger than ever, at meta and airbnb.
MangoToupe 1y ago
I can't my finger on exactly why, but I have the strong feeling that having a liable human is greatly desired. Perhaps because upper management themselves don't want to be liable for managing an AI.
Spooky23 1y ago
The AI isn’t accountable. A lot of the AI purging is a dressing up the ridiculous over hiring at these big companies and anticipating the economic malaise to come. This fall is going to be a bloodbath.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
1y ago

paulddraper 1y ago

> we will fire you as soon as we can HN used to ridicule bloated organizations. “Why is there 1000 people? That’s a weekend project plus support.” Now it defends them.

Spooky23 1y ago
Old skool HN was about starting companies. Most of the startups are pretty meh these days and everyone wants to go hide in some massive company that is printing money. The big growth era is over. We’re entering an era of conglomerates and bullshit government back scratching. The big tech companies are going to be like 1960’s ITT, FMC, etc.
blululu 1y ago
I think this is something else. These plans are not about cutting moribund departments that produce nothing. These are plans to fire people who are currently performing well and delivering for the company absent any downturn. This is very different than cutting bloat in that these people are currently holding up their end of the bargain for employment. Personally I would also suggest that seeking gains that come 100% at the expense of a business partner is a real asshole move. HN also used to ridicule organizations that have no vision for future growth. From a business perspective the more scathing indictment of these executives is that they have no plan for capitalizing on AI. If a VC asked a startup what they would do with an extra X engineers or $Y in cloud credits, and the answer is "we would do the same things we are doing now" the VC would probably pass on the company. AI gives you twice the engineers. If your company doesn't have any plans to take advantage of this opportunity then it is already in decline.

stego-tech 1y ago

The cold comfort for folks displaced by AI at major employers is that there’s still a glut of smaller ones that don’t use AI (either due to affordability, politics, or AI just can’t do what humans can). The issue with LLMs as the current AI-du-jour is that while they might replace the copy-pasters at Big Tech companies, these same companies are also assuming that AI is desired or usable in every other company or organization as well - which it’s not. Once you deviate away from Big Tech stuff, their products just don’t integrate with the rest of the market very well. Manufacturing concerns might still be migrating to IPv4 and Ethernet PLCs, small businesses might not have the budget for AI Agent creation and retraining, and medium enterprises might be too bespoke to use AI effectively. That doesn't even touch the glut of companies who still do work on paper, not digitally, and who still need assistance with their digital transformation. They’re calculating that their toys can eventually replace 80% of workers, and man they’re wrong.

nyarlathotep_ 1y ago
> while they might replace the copy-pasters at Big Tech companies, Are there really 'copy-pasters' at 'BIg Tech' companies?