3 ms·

Companies are always trying to grow as quickly as possible, especially compared to their market. I can’t imagine a world where excess capacity will just be cut

Companies are always trying to grow as quickly as possible, especially compared to their market. I can’t imagine a world where excess capacity will just be cut instead of fed back into the business (meaning people will stay but growth will be faster)

sokoloff 1y ago
Sane companies are working in a decreasing RoI order of projects. The ideas not being worked on now are “worse” ideas than the ones being worked on, at least by the priorities the company is using. At some point, you cut off the investment in worse ideas as not having an attractive risk-adjusted return. AI may nudge that slightly positively, but I think plenty of companies just flat-out over-hired, the reckoning is here, and AI-generating worse projects won’t be the salvation.
- jjk166 1y ago
  > The ideas not being worked on now are “worse” ideas than the ones being worked on, at least by the priorities the company is using. That's hardly true. Nearly all companies are heavily resource constrained. They have limited capital, limited manpower, and limited expertise. There are things they would love to be working on, which they know would be immensely beneficial, but just are not in a position to tackle those challenges at the moment. Even with speculative investment, you're still limited to what you can convince someone else will be successful given your current situation. Yes there exist some massive companies who do have essentially unlimited access to capital, and they can in theory engage in any endeavor with a sufficiently high ROI, although even then in practice they don't. Projects get canned because of office politics or to make quarterly figures look good. You go to just about any company in the world and ask just about any employee "is what you are currently working on the thing that this company needs done the most" the answer will be just about universally "No!"
  - sokoloff 1y ago
    In any company with 100 possible projects and resources to chase only 25, they’re probably working on numbers 1-25 (or at least all from the top 35 or so). Interview a random employee and that employee is unlikely to be working on the number 1 project (and so will answer “no” to your question).
    - jjk166 1y ago
      Not how real companies work. Numbers 1-15 are all off the table because the company does not have the means to do them at the time. Maybe something in the top 35 is being worked on, but the overwhelming majority are going to be coming from the bottom 25. These are the projects which are quick and cheap to implement, have some short term benefit, and are low risk and low complexity. The projects tend to have low, and sometimes even negative ROI, but short term success, or the appearance of success, is typically more highly valued among real human decision makers. Ask any employee if the number 1 project is being worked on by anyone, and they will answer no. Ask the CEO if the number 1 project is being worked on, and they will answer no. Ask the CEO if they think it'll be possible to start working on the number 1 project in the next 2 years, the optimistic ones will say maybe.
atonse 1y ago
I think part of the risk of AI is that you will be able to grow even with a smaller staff.

sokoloff 1y ago

Sane companies are working in a decreasing RoI order of projects. The ideas not being worked on now are “worse” ideas than the ones being worked on, at least by the priorities the company is using. At some point, you cut off the investment in worse ideas as not having an attractive risk-adjusted return. AI may nudge that slightly positively, but I think plenty of companies just flat-out over-hired, the reckoning is here, and AI-generating worse projects won’t be the salvation.

jjk166 1y ago
> The ideas not being worked on now are “worse” ideas than the ones being worked on, at least by the priorities the company is using. That's hardly true. Nearly all companies are heavily resource constrained. They have limited capital, limited manpower, and limited expertise. There are things they would love to be working on, which they know would be immensely beneficial, but just are not in a position to tackle those challenges at the moment. Even with speculative investment, you're still limited to what you can convince someone else will be successful given your current situation. Yes there exist some massive companies who do have essentially unlimited access to capital, and they can in theory engage in any endeavor with a sufficiently high ROI, although even then in practice they don't. Projects get canned because of office politics or to make quarterly figures look good. You go to just about any company in the world and ask just about any employee "is what you are currently working on the thing that this company needs done the most" the answer will be just about universally "No!"
- sokoloff 1y ago
  In any company with 100 possible projects and resources to chase only 25, they’re probably working on numbers 1-25 (or at least all from the top 35 or so). Interview a random employee and that employee is unlikely to be working on the number 1 project (and so will answer “no” to your question).
  - jjk166 1y ago
    Not how real companies work. Numbers 1-15 are all off the table because the company does not have the means to do them at the time. Maybe something in the top 35 is being worked on, but the overwhelming majority are going to be coming from the bottom 25. These are the projects which are quick and cheap to implement, have some short term benefit, and are low risk and low complexity. The projects tend to have low, and sometimes even negative ROI, but short term success, or the appearance of success, is typically more highly valued among real human decision makers. Ask any employee if the number 1 project is being worked on by anyone, and they will answer no. Ask the CEO if the number 1 project is being worked on, and they will answer no. Ask the CEO if they think it'll be possible to start working on the number 1 project in the next 2 years, the optimistic ones will say maybe.

atonse 1y ago

I think part of the risk of AI is that you will be able to grow even with a smaller staff.