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I think the future of compute will look much like today! Given the power and ubiquity of smart phones, most people don't need any other computer in their perso

I think the future of compute will look much like today! Given the power and ubiquity of smart phones, most people don't need any other computer in their personal life. What can be done locally on a smart phone seems like it will be more constrained by battery life and physical size than anything else, and there will continue to be a mix of things that can run on-device and other more compute-hungry functions run in the cloud. I don't see smartphones being replaced or augmented by other devices like smart glasses - people want one device that does it all, and not one they wear on their face. The same is somewhat true for business use too, especially if compute-heavy AI use becomes more widespread - some functions local and the heavy work done in AI-ready datacenters. I'm mildly surprised that there hasn't already been a greater shift away from local compute to things like Chromebooks (ubiquitous in schools) since it has so many benefits (cost, ease of management, reduced need to upgrade), but maybe it will still come if the need to rely on datacenter compute increases. Even if we imagine futuristic power-sipping neuromorphic chips, I don't see that changing things very much other that increasing the scope of what can be done locally on a power budget.

eru 1y ago
> Given the power and ubiquity of smart phones, most people don't need any other computer in their personal life. Maybe, but they need other form factors, too. Like a big screen and a keyboard. And once you have those, you might as well through some compute in there: getting smartphone-like performance out of desktop-like components (or even laptop components) is pretty cheap, so might as well throw them in. Chromebooks are fairly capable 'thin' clients. Their specs aren't that much worse than other laptops. However all that being said, I mostly agree that at least with current style AI we will likely see a lot more data centre compute in the future. At least as long as hardware costs are a significant fraction of total costs: the 'cloud' can multiplex multiple users over expensive hardware, your local computer is mostly idle and waiting for your input. (And it has to be, if you want low latency.) However, if costs shift so that electricity and not hardware is the main cost, we might see a return to local compute. Maybe.
- HarHarVeryFunny 1y ago
  > Maybe, but they need other form factors, too. Like a big screen and a keyboard. It seems generational habits are changing. TV is dead, and younger generation seems ok watching things on small screens, even smartphone. Can always sync phone to parent's/hotel big screen TV if available.

eru 1y ago

> Given the power and ubiquity of smart phones, most people don't need any other computer in their personal life. Maybe, but they need other form factors, too. Like a big screen and a keyboard. And once you have those, you might as well through some compute in there: getting smartphone-like performance out of desktop-like components (or even laptop components) is pretty cheap, so might as well throw them in. Chromebooks are fairly capable 'thin' clients. Their specs aren't that much worse than other laptops. However all that being said, I mostly agree that at least with current style AI we will likely see a lot more data centre compute in the future. At least as long as hardware costs are a significant fraction of total costs: the 'cloud' can multiplex multiple users over expensive hardware, your local computer is mostly idle and waiting for your input. (And it has to be, if you want low latency.) However, if costs shift so that electricity and not hardware is the main cost, we might see a return to local compute. Maybe.

HarHarVeryFunny 1y ago
> Maybe, but they need other form factors, too. Like a big screen and a keyboard. It seems generational habits are changing. TV is dead, and younger generation seems ok watching things on small screens, even smartphone. Can always sync phone to parent's/hotel big screen TV if available.