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One point the article doesn't make explicit: The exponential decrease in transistor size (≈Moore's law) was historically only valuable because it also caused 1
by cubefox 1y ago
One point the article doesn't make explicit: The exponential decrease in transistor size (≈Moore's law) was historically only valuable because it also caused
1) exponentially decreasing cost per transistor and
2) exponentially decreasing power consumption per transistor.
However, in recent years 1) has generally weakened. At some point, the price per transistor will no longer decrease for smaller process nodes, and even start to increase. Then making smaller transistors could only be justified for power constrained chips that benefit from 2). But even this has only limited value.
So at some point, producing chips with smaller transistors will no longer make economic sense, even if transistor size could technically still be decreased at a similar rate as in the past.