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It is clearly not in the benefit of Bulgaria to join a shared currency with advanced, manufacturing, positive export surplus countries like Germany. Losing con

It is clearly not in the benefit of Bulgaria to join a shared currency with advanced, manufacturing, positive export surplus countries like Germany. Losing control of the currency will result in all domestic manufacturing to become more expensive (therefore incapable to compete with higher quality German goods), and all manufacturing capabilities will disappear in favour of the most cancerous form of industry, tourism. Like what happened to Greece and Portugal.

Mainan_Tagonist 1y ago
Exactly, thank you for pointing this out. The Euro has hardly been the boon promised in many of the countries that have adopted it.
mhitza 1y ago
I'm not so familiar with Greece's and Portugal's issues when switching to the euro, but I have followed along the news with Croatia's switch to the euro. Where it was a prime excuse for the large chains (mainly supermarket chains) to round up prices during the conversion.
- Symbiote 1y ago
  Is there any trustworthy reporting on this? All it takes is for one chain to round prices down (1-2¢ isn't going to be an issue for them), advertise this, and gain many new customers.
  - 4gotunameagain 1y ago
    That is of course assuming that widespread corruption does not allow cartels. The markets are only efficient on paper ;)
mslansn 1y ago
It also happened to Spain.
mns 1y ago
They are not losing any control because they never had any. The Bulgarian currency was tied to the DM and later to the Euro. The only thing that changes now is that instead of 2 Leva = 1 Euro, everything will just be Euro. It’s also funny to see how anti everything related to EU/Europe most of the tech people are. You can see this here, like most of the comments that now proclaim the death of Bulgaria or Germany bailing them out, from people that have no clue on the background and history of this move.
bpizzi 1y ago
Bulgaria has already pegged its currency (the lev) to the euro through a currency board since 1997. This means it already lacks independent monetary policy, and joining the euro wouldn’t significantly change that. The exchange rate is fixed, and inflation differentials are already impacting competitiveness. Moreover, Bulgaria does not directly compete with Germany in the same product categories. Bulgaria is integrated into supply chains, often providing components or assembly work for German companies. You are only 7M. I’ve got the feeling that it is just not large enough to significantly be distorted by eurozone monetary policy, at least in the way that might affect much larger economies.
charamis 1y ago
I don't know why this comment got downvoted, what it says is true. Having experienced it as a greek first hand.
- Mainan_Tagonist 1y ago
  Same perception here, none of what is said by GP should be downvoted. Almost 25 years after its implementation, it's high time the overall impact of the Euro was assessed objectively.
  - akmarinov 1y ago
    But GP didn’t say that, he said it’ll be bad for Bulgaria and he’s objectively wrong, due to all the reasons outlined by others.
    - Mainan_Tagonist 1y ago
      You simply do not know if he is objectively wrong. On the basis of 25 years of Euro, what we have observed is that in the eurozone, capital follows productivity, and countries tend to specialise in line with what their factor endowment and national inclination will let them. The Euro is usually "sold" as a miracle solution when it has only really been successful for countries that had a very export oriented string industrial sector, and even then, with mixed results (see Italy). Bulgaria can hope for capital inflows and increase in productivity but should also bear in mind that these factors are highly independent on economies of scale and overall sheer size of of the existing industrial base. Capital outflows and alignment with standard european prices may well be in order. This taking the average population age may be a killer. We'll see.
      - akmarinov 1y ago
        Again, he’s arguing that Euro will be bad for Bulgaria, not that the Euro is bad. This is objectively wrong, since Bulgaria currently had 0 control over its currency, where joining the eurozone, they’ll have a vote at the table
tashbarg 1y ago
> Bulgaria is unusual in that it pegged its currency, the lev, to the euro right from the beginning of monetary union in 1999, even before it joined the European Union in 2007. Apparently, they did not use that control in the last 26 years.
deleted 1y ago
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Mainan_Tagonist 1y ago

Exactly, thank you for pointing this out. The Euro has hardly been the boon promised in many of the countries that have adopted it.

mhitza 1y ago

I'm not so familiar with Greece's and Portugal's issues when switching to the euro, but I have followed along the news with Croatia's switch to the euro. Where it was a prime excuse for the large chains (mainly supermarket chains) to round up prices during the conversion.

Symbiote 1y ago
Is there any trustworthy reporting on this? All it takes is for one chain to round prices down (1-2¢ isn't going to be an issue for them), advertise this, and gain many new customers.
- 4gotunameagain 1y ago
  That is of course assuming that widespread corruption does not allow cartels. The markets are only efficient on paper ;)

mslansn 1y ago

It also happened to Spain.

mns 1y ago

They are not losing any control because they never had any. The Bulgarian currency was tied to the DM and later to the Euro. The only thing that changes now is that instead of 2 Leva = 1 Euro, everything will just be Euro. It’s also funny to see how anti everything related to EU/Europe most of the tech people are. You can see this here, like most of the comments that now proclaim the death of Bulgaria or Germany bailing them out, from people that have no clue on the background and history of this move.

bpizzi 1y ago

Bulgaria has already pegged its currency (the lev) to the euro through a currency board since 1997. This means it already lacks independent monetary policy, and joining the euro wouldn’t significantly change that. The exchange rate is fixed, and inflation differentials are already impacting competitiveness. Moreover, Bulgaria does not directly compete with Germany in the same product categories. Bulgaria is integrated into supply chains, often providing components or assembly work for German companies. You are only 7M. I’ve got the feeling that it is just not large enough to significantly be distorted by eurozone monetary policy, at least in the way that might affect much larger economies.

charamis 1y ago

I don't know why this comment got downvoted, what it says is true. Having experienced it as a greek first hand.

Mainan_Tagonist 1y ago
Same perception here, none of what is said by GP should be downvoted. Almost 25 years after its implementation, it's high time the overall impact of the Euro was assessed objectively.
- akmarinov 1y ago
  But GP didn’t say that, he said it’ll be bad for Bulgaria and he’s objectively wrong, due to all the reasons outlined by others.
  - Mainan_Tagonist 1y ago
    You simply do not know if he is objectively wrong. On the basis of 25 years of Euro, what we have observed is that in the eurozone, capital follows productivity, and countries tend to specialise in line with what their factor endowment and national inclination will let them. The Euro is usually "sold" as a miracle solution when it has only really been successful for countries that had a very export oriented string industrial sector, and even then, with mixed results (see Italy). Bulgaria can hope for capital inflows and increase in productivity but should also bear in mind that these factors are highly independent on economies of scale and overall sheer size of of the existing industrial base. Capital outflows and alignment with standard european prices may well be in order. This taking the average population age may be a killer. We'll see.
    - akmarinov 1y ago
      Again, he’s arguing that Euro will be bad for Bulgaria, not that the Euro is bad. This is objectively wrong, since Bulgaria currently had 0 control over its currency, where joining the eurozone, they’ll have a vote at the table

tashbarg 1y ago

> Bulgaria is unusual in that it pegged its currency, the lev, to the euro right from the beginning of monetary union in 1999, even before it joined the European Union in 2007. Apparently, they did not use that control in the last 26 years.

deleted 1y ago

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