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> probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion Might a
by diggan 1y ago
> probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion
Might as well talk about the probability of a conflict with South Africa, China might not be the best country to live in nor be country that takes care of its own citizens the best, but they seem non-violent towards other sovereign nations (so far), although of course there is a lot of posturing. But from the current "world powers", they seem to be the least violent.
- energy123 1y agoWhat is the security competition between South Africa and the US that would justify such an analogy? China is peaceful recently, at least since their invasion of Vietnam. But (1) their post-Deng culture is highly militaristic and irredentist, (2) this is the first time in history that they actually can rollback US influence, their previous inability explains the peace rather than lack of will (3) Taiwan from a realist perspective makes too much sense, as the first in the island chain to wedge between Philippines and Japan, and its role in supplying chips to the US. The lesson we should learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is to believe countries when they say they own another country. Not assume the best and design policy around that assumption. If you want to read some experts on this question, see this: https://warontherocks.com/?s=taiwan https://warontherocks.com/?s=taiwan The general consensus seems to be around a 20-25% chance of an invasion of Taiwan within the next 5 years. The remaining debate isn't about whether they want to do it, it's about whether they'll be able to do it and what their calculation will be around those relative capabilities.