8 ms·

Honestly, AI progress suffers because of these export restrictions. An open source model that can compete with Gemini Pro 2.5 and o3 is good for the world, and

by spaceman_2020 1y ago

Honestly, AI progress suffers because of these export restrictions. An open source model that can compete with Gemini Pro 2.5 and o3 is good for the world, and good for AI

energy123 1y ago
Your views on this question are going to differ a lot depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion on the cost vs benefits of export controls even starts.
- spaceman_2020 1y ago
  I'm not American. Ever since I've been old enough to understand the world, the only country constantly at war everywhere is America. An all-powerful American AI is scarier to me than an open source Chinese one
  - throwaway290 1y ago
    As Russian I only recently started to understand that russian government was at wars for a lot of its existence from USSR times: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#Soviet_Union_(1922%E2%80%931991) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#.... Many invasions and wars in places Russia should have no business in. Most of them not publicized in the country. Unlike US it was not spreading liberal values of individual freedom and against violent dictatorships, actually maybe the other way around
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - Thlom 1y ago
      The US is not at perpetual war to spread "liberal values".
      - throwaway290 1y ago
        I didn't say it is always the goal but if one country prevails over another country somewhere then usually it means first country's values propagate
    - rescbr 1y ago
      > against violent dictatorships Then look up Latin America’s history, where the US actively worked to install and support such violent dictatorships. Some under the guise of protecting countries from the threat of communism - like Brazil, Argentina and Chile, and some explicitly to protect US company’s interests - like in Guatemala
      - throwaway290 1y ago
        > Chile Yes fuckups happened. But then for results Russian intervention see CCP and how many people died from their hands and policies
        CamperBob2 1y ago
        Well, that's different. The Russians meant well, you see.
      - CamperBob2 1y ago
        Well, at least protecting Latin American countries from the threat of communism was a nice thing for us to do, wasn't it? Communism would certainly have done more harm than we did. The lesson of present-day America is that democracy is too important to be left to the people.
        jaggs 1y ago
        Mmmm...
        vbezhenar 1y ago
        Communism is good. By "protecting" them from communism, you doomed them to the horrors of capitalism.
        CamperBob2 1y ago
        You don't have to hold a gun to someone's head to get them to practice capitalism. People will trade labor, goods and services voluntarily unless you go out of your way to stop them. And spare us the false equivalence bullshit that we all know is coming.
- tazjin 1y ago
  > depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years And on who you would support in such a conflict! ;)
- diggan 1y ago
  > probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion Might as well talk about the probability of a conflict with South Africa, China might not be the best country to live in nor be country that takes care of its own citizens the best, but they seem non-violent towards other sovereign nations (so far), although of course there is a lot of posturing. But from the current "world powers", they seem to be the least violent.
  - energy123 1y ago
    What is the security competition between South Africa and the US that would justify such an analogy? China is peaceful recently, at least since their invasion of Vietnam. But (1) their post-Deng culture is highly militaristic and irredentist, (2) this is the first time in history that they actually can rollback US influence, their previous inability explains the peace rather than lack of will (3) Taiwan from a realist perspective makes too much sense, as the first in the island chain to wedge between Philippines and Japan, and its role in supplying chips to the US. The lesson we should learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is to believe countries when they say they own another country. Not assume the best and design policy around that assumption. If you want to read some experts on this question, see this: https://warontherocks.com/?s=taiwan https://warontherocks.com/?s=taiwan The general consensus seems to be around a 20-25% chance of an invasion of Taiwan within the next 5 years. The remaining debate isn't about whether they want to do it, it's about whether they'll be able to do it and what their calculation will be around those relative capabilities.
- layer8 1y ago
  Are you saying that large-model capabilities would make a substantial difference in a military conflict within the next five years? Because we aren’t seeing any signs of that in, say, the Ukraine war.
  - energy123 1y ago
    GPUs are used for signals intelligence today.
  - Davidzheng 1y ago
    small scale drones are in use in that conflict. On device AI would be a game-changer no?
    - layer8 1y ago
      It’s not impossible, but also highly nontrivial. Apart from the actual AI implementation, power supply might be a challenge. And there is a multitude of anti-drone technology being continuously developed. Already today, an autonomous drone would have to deal with RF jamming and GPS jamming, which means it’s easily defeated unless it has the ability to navigate purely visually. Drones also tend to be limited to good weather conditions and daytime.
      - energy123 1y ago
        In terms of countermeasures, what's the difference between having a human drone pilot and having an AI (computer vision plus control) do it over cloud? I know I'm moving the goalposts away from edge compute, but if we are discussing the relevance of GPU compute for warfare it seems relevant.
        layer8 1y ago
        Assuming human-level AI capabilities, not much of a difference, obviously. But I also don’t think that human operators are a bottleneck currently. Cost, failure rate, and technical limitations of drones is. If you are alluding to superhuman AI capabilities, that’s highly speculative as well with regard to what is needed for drone piloting, and also unclear how large the benefits of that would be in terms of actual operational success rate.
Papazsazsa 1y ago
"Then business will have to suffer."
tw1984 1y ago
> Honestly, AI progress suffers because of these export restrictions. An open source model that can compete with Gemini Pro 2.5 and o3 is good for the world, and good for AI DeepSeek is not a charity, they are the largest hedge fund in China, nothing different from a typical wall street funds. They don't spend billions to give the world something open and free just because it is good. When the model is capable of generating decent amount of revenues, or when there is conclusive evidence of showing being closed would lead to much higher profit, it will be closed.
kstrauser 1y ago
DeepSeek refuses to acknowledge Tiananmen Square. I don’t want to use a model that’s known to heavily censor historical data. What else is it denying or lying about that’s going to affect how I use it? (In before “whatabout”: maybe US-made models do the same, but I’ve yet to hear reports of any anti-US information that they’re censoring.)
- subarctic 1y ago
  I thought that censoring was done separately and doesn't occur if you run the model locally
  - kstrauser 1y ago
    Nope, it’s local too. I ran it in Ollama and it refused to tell me: https://honeypot.net/2025/01/27/i-like-running-ollama-on.html https://honeypot.net/2025/01/27/i-like-running-ollama-on.htm...

Honestly, AI progress suffers because of these export restrictions. An open source model that can compete with Gemini Pro 2.5 and o3 is good for the world, and good for AI

energy123 1y ago

Your views on this question are going to differ a lot depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion on the cost vs benefits of export controls even starts.

spaceman_2020 1y ago
I'm not American. Ever since I've been old enough to understand the world, the only country constantly at war everywhere is America. An all-powerful American AI is scarier to me than an open source Chinese one
- throwaway290 1y ago
  As Russian I only recently started to understand that russian government was at wars for a lot of its existence from USSR times: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#Soviet_Union_(1922%E2%80%931991) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#.... Many invasions and wars in places Russia should have no business in. Most of them not publicized in the country. Unlike US it was not spreading liberal values of individual freedom and against violent dictatorships, actually maybe the other way around
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - Thlom 1y ago
    The US is not at perpetual war to spread "liberal values".
    - throwaway290 1y ago
      I didn't say it is always the goal but if one country prevails over another country somewhere then usually it means first country's values propagate
  - rescbr 1y ago
    > against violent dictatorships Then look up Latin America’s history, where the US actively worked to install and support such violent dictatorships. Some under the guise of protecting countries from the threat of communism - like Brazil, Argentina and Chile, and some explicitly to protect US company’s interests - like in Guatemala
    - throwaway290 1y ago
      > Chile Yes fuckups happened. But then for results Russian intervention see CCP and how many people died from their hands and policies
      - CamperBob2 1y ago
        Well, that's different. The Russians meant well, you see.
    - CamperBob2 1y ago
      Well, at least protecting Latin American countries from the threat of communism was a nice thing for us to do, wasn't it? Communism would certainly have done more harm than we did. The lesson of present-day America is that democracy is too important to be left to the people.
      - jaggs 1y ago
        Mmmm...
      - vbezhenar 1y ago
        Communism is good. By "protecting" them from communism, you doomed them to the horrors of capitalism.
        CamperBob2 1y ago
        You don't have to hold a gun to someone's head to get them to practice capitalism. People will trade labor, goods and services voluntarily unless you go out of your way to stop them. And spare us the false equivalence bullshit that we all know is coming.
tazjin 1y ago
> depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years And on who you would support in such a conflict! ;)
diggan 1y ago
> probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion Might as well talk about the probability of a conflict with South Africa, China might not be the best country to live in nor be country that takes care of its own citizens the best, but they seem non-violent towards other sovereign nations (so far), although of course there is a lot of posturing. But from the current "world powers", they seem to be the least violent.
- energy123 1y ago
  What is the security competition between South Africa and the US that would justify such an analogy? China is peaceful recently, at least since their invasion of Vietnam. But (1) their post-Deng culture is highly militaristic and irredentist, (2) this is the first time in history that they actually can rollback US influence, their previous inability explains the peace rather than lack of will (3) Taiwan from a realist perspective makes too much sense, as the first in the island chain to wedge between Philippines and Japan, and its role in supplying chips to the US. The lesson we should learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is to believe countries when they say they own another country. Not assume the best and design policy around that assumption. If you want to read some experts on this question, see this: https://warontherocks.com/?s=taiwan https://warontherocks.com/?s=taiwan The general consensus seems to be around a 20-25% chance of an invasion of Taiwan within the next 5 years. The remaining debate isn't about whether they want to do it, it's about whether they'll be able to do it and what their calculation will be around those relative capabilities.
layer8 1y ago
Are you saying that large-model capabilities would make a substantial difference in a military conflict within the next five years? Because we aren’t seeing any signs of that in, say, the Ukraine war.
- energy123 1y ago
  GPUs are used for signals intelligence today.
- Davidzheng 1y ago
  small scale drones are in use in that conflict. On device AI would be a game-changer no?
  - layer8 1y ago
    It’s not impossible, but also highly nontrivial. Apart from the actual AI implementation, power supply might be a challenge. And there is a multitude of anti-drone technology being continuously developed. Already today, an autonomous drone would have to deal with RF jamming and GPS jamming, which means it’s easily defeated unless it has the ability to navigate purely visually. Drones also tend to be limited to good weather conditions and daytime.
    - energy123 1y ago
      In terms of countermeasures, what's the difference between having a human drone pilot and having an AI (computer vision plus control) do it over cloud? I know I'm moving the goalposts away from edge compute, but if we are discussing the relevance of GPU compute for warfare it seems relevant.
      - layer8 1y ago
        Assuming human-level AI capabilities, not much of a difference, obviously. But I also don’t think that human operators are a bottleneck currently. Cost, failure rate, and technical limitations of drones is. If you are alluding to superhuman AI capabilities, that’s highly speculative as well with regard to what is needed for drone piloting, and also unclear how large the benefits of that would be in terms of actual operational success rate.

Papazsazsa 1y ago

"Then business will have to suffer."

tw1984 1y ago

> Honestly, AI progress suffers because of these export restrictions. An open source model that can compete with Gemini Pro 2.5 and o3 is good for the world, and good for AI DeepSeek is not a charity, they are the largest hedge fund in China, nothing different from a typical wall street funds. They don't spend billions to give the world something open and free just because it is good. When the model is capable of generating decent amount of revenues, or when there is conclusive evidence of showing being closed would lead to much higher profit, it will be closed.

kstrauser 1y ago

DeepSeek refuses to acknowledge Tiananmen Square. I don’t want to use a model that’s known to heavily censor historical data. What else is it denying or lying about that’s going to affect how I use it? (In before “whatabout”: maybe US-made models do the same, but I’ve yet to hear reports of any anti-US information that they’re censoring.)

subarctic 1y ago
I thought that censoring was done separately and doesn't occur if you run the model locally
- kstrauser 1y ago
  Nope, it’s local too. I ran it in Ollama and it refused to tell me: https://honeypot.net/2025/01/27/i-like-running-ollama-on.html https://honeypot.net/2025/01/27/i-like-running-ollama-on.htm...