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The title of the article is "DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress" but the body of the article says launch stalled because there is a lack of GP

The title of the article is "DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress" but the body of the article says launch stalled because there is a lack of GPU capacity due to export restrictions, not because a lack of progress. The body does not even mention the word "progress". I can't imagine demand would be greater for R2 than for R1 unless it was a major leap ahead. Maybe R2 is going to be a larger/less performant/more expensive model? Deepseek could deploy in a US or EU datacenter ... but that would be admitting defeat.

Davidzheng 1y ago
but deepseek doesn't actually need to host inference right if they opensource it? I don't see why these companies even bother to host inference. deepseek doesn't need outreach (everyone knows about them) and the huge demand for sota will force western companies to host them anyway.
- teruakohatu 1y ago
  Releasing the model has paid off handsomely with name recognition and making a significant geopolitical and cultural statement. But will they keep releasing the weights or do an OpenAI and come up with a reason they can't release them anymore? At the end of the day, even if they release the weights, they probably want to make money and leverage the brand by hosting the model API and the consumer mobile app.
  - ngruhn 1y ago
    If they continue to release the weights + detailed reports what they did, I seriously don't understand why. I mean it's cool. I just don't understand why. It's such a cut throat environment where every little bit of moat counts. I don't think they're naive. I think I'm naive.
    - senko 1y ago
      If you’re not appearing, you’re disappearing. Now they are firmly on the map, which presumably helps with hiring, doing deals, influence. If they stop publishing something, they run the risk of being labelled a one-hit wonder who got lucky. If they have a reason to believe they can do even better in the near future, releasing current tech might make sense.
      - ngruhn 1y ago
        I think those are valid points but it's hard for me to see that this is worth it. With the might of the CCP in the back and the giant labor pool that is China, surely they can make hiring work either way. If they now start offering a model that's cheaper and better then anyone else's, surely anyone will take notice, even if the weights are not open.
    - Davidzheng 1y ago
      I don't think any of these companies are aiming at long term goal of making money from inference pricing of customers.
      - diggan 1y ago
        > I don't think any of these companies are aiming at long term goal of making money from inference pricing of customers. What is DeepSeek aiming for if not that, which is currently the only thing they offer that cost money? They claim their own inference endpoints has a cost profit margin of 545%, which might be true or not, but the very fact that they mentioned this at all seems to indicate it is of some importance to them and others.
        Davidzheng 1y ago
        Well it's certainly helpful in the interim that they can recoup some money from inference. I'm just saying that with systems with more intelligence in the future can be used to make money in much better ways than charging customers for interacting with it. For instance it could conduct research on projects which can generate massive revenue if successful.
    - bionhoward 1y ago
      If moving faster is a most, then open source AI could move faster than closed AI by not needing to be paranoid about privacy and welcoming external contributions
      - ngruhn 1y ago
        But if an open model ever pulls ahead then the closed vendors can immediately piggyback on that.
- coderatlarge 1y ago
  maybe they benefit from the usage data they collect?
impossiblefork 1y ago
The lack of GPU capacity sounds like bullshit though, and it's unsourced. It's not like you can't offer it as a secondary thing, sort of like O-3 or even just turning on the reasoning.
- coderatlarge 1y ago
  maybe they’re just waiting to see if they can run on chinese sourced silicon? just speculating
  - impossiblefork 1y ago
    I think my real problem with it is that how slow it is is easy to predict beforehand. If it doesn't meet the goals set for it speed-wise, they could go for something smaller. It should only be quality which could be unpredictable before training.
    - coderatlarge 1y ago
      maybe they need to allocate that hardware to other uses and are waiting for alternatives?
      - coderatlarge 1y ago
        to wit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44441089 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44441089
Thorrez 1y ago
The article says this: >June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has not yet determined the timing of the release of its R2 model as CEO Liang Wenfeng is not satisfied with its performance, >Over the past several months, DeepSeek's engineers have been working to refine R2 until Liang gives the green light for release, according to The Information. But yes, it is strange how the majority of the article is about lack of GPUs.
- chvid 1y ago
  I am pretty sure that the information has no access to / sources at Deepseek. At most they are basing their article on selective random internet chatter amongst those who follow Chinese ai.
  - roenxi 1y ago
    Presumably there is a CEO statement somewhere. If DeepSeek said May, but it is almost July, that would call for some comment from them. Although I'd like to know the source for the "this is because of chip sanctions" angle. SMIC is claiming they can manufacture at 5nm and a large number of chips at 7nm can get get the same amount of compute of anything Nvidia produces. It wouldn't be market-leading competitive but delaying the release for a few months doesn't change that. I don't really see how DeepSeek production release dates and the chip sanctions could be linked in the small. Unless they're just including that as an aside.
    - archon1410 1y ago
      > If DeepSeek said May It is pretty strange that DeepSeek didn't say May anywhere, that was also a Reuters report based on "three people familiar with the company".[1] DeepSeek itself did not respond and did not make any claims about the timeline, ever. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/deepseek-rushes-launch-new-ai-model-china-goes-all-2025-02-25/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/d...
      - rvnx 1y ago
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
sschueller 1y ago
> lack of GPU capacity due to export restrictions Human progress that benefits everyone being stalled by the few and powerful who want to keep their moats. Sad world we live in.
- crazygringo 1y ago
  It's not about people wanting to keep it in moats. It's about China being expansionist, actively preparing to invade Taiwan, and generally becoming an increasing military threat that does not respect the national integrity of other states. The US is fine with other countries having AI if the countries "play nice" with others. Nobody is limiting GPU's in France or Thailand. This is very specific to China's behavior and stated goals.
  - mistrial9 1y ago
    or also there is an interpretation of State actions that says that a government serves itself first and foremost. Unfortunately this includes governments you like and also governments you do not like. Before rising to invective here, also consider that this is not new at all, since early Kingdoms were ruled by Kings and abuse of power was more common than not, so lots of present day politics around the entire world, do have alternates to simple depostic will. So instead of splitting hairs about that description, lets highlight an idea that actually, millions of people doing millions of things per day consitutes its own system, despite what name you call it or who collects the taxes. Observing the actual behavior of that system ("data driven"?) has more benefits than hairsplitting of nomenclature for political studies. Why bother writing this? because simplistic labels for government actions in international affairs is Step 2 of "brain-off" us versus them thinking. Let's find ways to remove fuels from the fires of war. The stakes are too high. Third call to start thinking instead of invective here. Negotiation and trade are the tools. Name calling on those that work for "peace" is Step 2 again. IMHO
  - properpopper 1y ago
    Nice media-led narrative. The real reason is that the US cannot compete fairly
torginus 1y ago
I am a bit sceptical about whether this whole thing is true at all. This article links to another, which happens to be behind a paywall, saying 'GPU export sanctions are working' is a message a lot of US administration, people and investors want to hear, so I think there's a good chance that unsubstantiated speculation and wishful thinking is presented as fact here.
slowmovintarget 1y ago
> ...but that would be admitting defeat. Given that DeepSeek is used by the Chinese military, I doubt that it would be a reasonable move for them to host in the U.S., because the capability is about more than profit.

Davidzheng 1y ago

but deepseek doesn't actually need to host inference right if they opensource it? I don't see why these companies even bother to host inference. deepseek doesn't need outreach (everyone knows about them) and the huge demand for sota will force western companies to host them anyway.

teruakohatu 1y ago
Releasing the model has paid off handsomely with name recognition and making a significant geopolitical and cultural statement. But will they keep releasing the weights or do an OpenAI and come up with a reason they can't release them anymore? At the end of the day, even if they release the weights, they probably want to make money and leverage the brand by hosting the model API and the consumer mobile app.
- ngruhn 1y ago
  If they continue to release the weights + detailed reports what they did, I seriously don't understand why. I mean it's cool. I just don't understand why. It's such a cut throat environment where every little bit of moat counts. I don't think they're naive. I think I'm naive.
  - senko 1y ago
    If you’re not appearing, you’re disappearing. Now they are firmly on the map, which presumably helps with hiring, doing deals, influence. If they stop publishing something, they run the risk of being labelled a one-hit wonder who got lucky. If they have a reason to believe they can do even better in the near future, releasing current tech might make sense.
    - ngruhn 1y ago
      I think those are valid points but it's hard for me to see that this is worth it. With the might of the CCP in the back and the giant labor pool that is China, surely they can make hiring work either way. If they now start offering a model that's cheaper and better then anyone else's, surely anyone will take notice, even if the weights are not open.
  - Davidzheng 1y ago
    I don't think any of these companies are aiming at long term goal of making money from inference pricing of customers.
    - diggan 1y ago
      > I don't think any of these companies are aiming at long term goal of making money from inference pricing of customers. What is DeepSeek aiming for if not that, which is currently the only thing they offer that cost money? They claim their own inference endpoints has a cost profit margin of 545%, which might be true or not, but the very fact that they mentioned this at all seems to indicate it is of some importance to them and others.
      - Davidzheng 1y ago
        Well it's certainly helpful in the interim that they can recoup some money from inference. I'm just saying that with systems with more intelligence in the future can be used to make money in much better ways than charging customers for interacting with it. For instance it could conduct research on projects which can generate massive revenue if successful.
  - bionhoward 1y ago
    If moving faster is a most, then open source AI could move faster than closed AI by not needing to be paranoid about privacy and welcoming external contributions
    - ngruhn 1y ago
      But if an open model ever pulls ahead then the closed vendors can immediately piggyback on that.
coderatlarge 1y ago
maybe they benefit from the usage data they collect?

impossiblefork 1y ago

The lack of GPU capacity sounds like bullshit though, and it's unsourced. It's not like you can't offer it as a secondary thing, sort of like O-3 or even just turning on the reasoning.

coderatlarge 1y ago
maybe they’re just waiting to see if they can run on chinese sourced silicon? just speculating
- impossiblefork 1y ago
  I think my real problem with it is that how slow it is is easy to predict beforehand. If it doesn't meet the goals set for it speed-wise, they could go for something smaller. It should only be quality which could be unpredictable before training.
  - coderatlarge 1y ago
    maybe they need to allocate that hardware to other uses and are waiting for alternatives?
    - coderatlarge 1y ago
      to wit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44441089 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44441089

Thorrez 1y ago

The article says this: >June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has not yet determined the timing of the release of its R2 model as CEO Liang Wenfeng is not satisfied with its performance, >Over the past several months, DeepSeek's engineers have been working to refine R2 until Liang gives the green light for release, according to The Information. But yes, it is strange how the majority of the article is about lack of GPUs.

chvid 1y ago
I am pretty sure that the information has no access to / sources at Deepseek. At most they are basing their article on selective random internet chatter amongst those who follow Chinese ai.
- roenxi 1y ago
  Presumably there is a CEO statement somewhere. If DeepSeek said May, but it is almost July, that would call for some comment from them. Although I'd like to know the source for the "this is because of chip sanctions" angle. SMIC is claiming they can manufacture at 5nm and a large number of chips at 7nm can get get the same amount of compute of anything Nvidia produces. It wouldn't be market-leading competitive but delaying the release for a few months doesn't change that. I don't really see how DeepSeek production release dates and the chip sanctions could be linked in the small. Unless they're just including that as an aside.
  - archon1410 1y ago
    > If DeepSeek said May It is pretty strange that DeepSeek didn't say May anywhere, that was also a Reuters report based on "three people familiar with the company".[1] DeepSeek itself did not respond and did not make any claims about the timeline, ever. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/deepseek-rushes-launch-new-ai-model-china-goes-all-2025-02-25/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/d...
    - rvnx 1y ago

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

sschueller 1y ago

> lack of GPU capacity due to export restrictions Human progress that benefits everyone being stalled by the few and powerful who want to keep their moats. Sad world we live in.

crazygringo 1y ago
It's not about people wanting to keep it in moats. It's about China being expansionist, actively preparing to invade Taiwan, and generally becoming an increasing military threat that does not respect the national integrity of other states. The US is fine with other countries having AI if the countries "play nice" with others. Nobody is limiting GPU's in France or Thailand. This is very specific to China's behavior and stated goals.
- mistrial9 1y ago
  or also there is an interpretation of State actions that says that a government serves itself first and foremost. Unfortunately this includes governments you like and also governments you do not like. Before rising to invective here, also consider that this is not new at all, since early Kingdoms were ruled by Kings and abuse of power was more common than not, so lots of present day politics around the entire world, do have alternates to simple depostic will. So instead of splitting hairs about that description, lets highlight an idea that actually, millions of people doing millions of things per day consitutes its own system, despite what name you call it or who collects the taxes. Observing the actual behavior of that system ("data driven"?) has more benefits than hairsplitting of nomenclature for political studies. Why bother writing this? because simplistic labels for government actions in international affairs is Step 2 of "brain-off" us versus them thinking. Let's find ways to remove fuels from the fires of war. The stakes are too high. Third call to start thinking instead of invective here. Negotiation and trade are the tools. Name calling on those that work for "peace" is Step 2 again. IMHO
- properpopper 1y ago
  Nice media-led narrative. The real reason is that the US cannot compete fairly

torginus 1y ago

I am a bit sceptical about whether this whole thing is true at all. This article links to another, which happens to be behind a paywall, saying 'GPU export sanctions are working' is a message a lot of US administration, people and investors want to hear, so I think there's a good chance that unsubstantiated speculation and wishful thinking is presented as fact here.

slowmovintarget 1y ago

> ...but that would be admitting defeat. Given that DeepSeek is used by the Chinese military, I doubt that it would be a reasonable move for them to host in the U.S., because the capability is about more than profit.