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> "Putin has an eye on Sweden" does not pass the most basic smell test, now even less than during the Cold War... It does pass. Invading the Swedish island of

by mopsi 1y ago

> "Putin has an eye on Sweden" does not pass the most basic smell test, now even less than during the Cold War... It does pass. Invading the Swedish island of Gotland would cut off air and sea routes to the Baltics, while a ground move against the Suwalki gap between Poland and Lithuania would sever land routes. Map: https://warsawinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Baltic-Sea-Map-NATO-Sweden-Finlands-vs-Russia-Warsaw-Institute-png.png https://warsawinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Balti... Keep in mind that Belarus should also be marked in red, because it hosts Russian forces and allows them free passage. It is one of the most obvious hostile moves against the EU and NATO, and Europe clearly doesn't have the means nor the will to launch a major war to liberate the countries. Everything hinges on the US, and we all know the state of things there.

mytailorisrich 1y ago
This is not realistic at all for the reasons already put forward. You could also claim that Russia could invade Gibraltar to gain control of the entry to the Med. Or they could try to get Alaska back, why not. This all does show the power of propaganda in mabufacturing public opinion.
- mopsi 1y ago
  Not only is this realistic, but the affected countries are taking remarkable steps to counter it. Sweden withdrew its military presence from Gotland in 2005 and disbanded the Gotland Regiment. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden re-established the regiment, returned tanks and IFVs and radars and air defense systems to Gotland, and is building up a brigade-strength task force to defend the island by 2027. Are the UK or the US prepositioning forces in Gibraltar and Alaska to repel an invasion, renovating bunkers and shelters, and making preparations to evacuate the civilian population?
  - mytailorisrich 1y ago
    Interestingly you are not replying to my points. You are only repeating what the media tell the public. Now, it is perfectly norm0al for Sweden to secure its territory. But the narrative and policies go way beyond this and, again, my take is that Russia is just a pretext to implement those by overblowing the threat.
    - mopsi 1y ago
      If anything, the media is downplaying the preparations to calm the population. Russia is not a pretext, but the reason for the preparations. Russian actions, from invading Georgia in 2008 to annexing Crimea in 2014 and launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to the current wave of sabotage, have fundamentally changed security assessments. These aren't hypothetical threats being "overblown". They're real, documented acts of aggression that have forced countries to reassess their defenses. The policies are a direct response to that reality, not an excuse manufactured to justify them. Dismissing that as mere PR is incredibly shallow. If the Swedish government wanted a publicity stunt, they would stage a photo op, not expand conscription and form new brigades.
      - mytailorisrich 1y ago
        Not PR or publicity stunt, more like "conspiracy". I have already written that my theory is that this is to manufacture consent of the public for a push of the EU into military matters and a further power-grab of the EU over European nation states. It is not very subtle but it seems to be working nevertheless.

by mopsi 1y ago

mytailorisrich 1y ago

This is not realistic at all for the reasons already put forward. You could also claim that Russia could invade Gibraltar to gain control of the entry to the Med. Or they could try to get Alaska back, why not. This all does show the power of propaganda in mabufacturing public opinion.

mopsi 1y ago
Not only is this realistic, but the affected countries are taking remarkable steps to counter it. Sweden withdrew its military presence from Gotland in 2005 and disbanded the Gotland Regiment. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden re-established the regiment, returned tanks and IFVs and radars and air defense systems to Gotland, and is building up a brigade-strength task force to defend the island by 2027. Are the UK or the US prepositioning forces in Gibraltar and Alaska to repel an invasion, renovating bunkers and shelters, and making preparations to evacuate the civilian population?
- mytailorisrich 1y ago
  Interestingly you are not replying to my points. You are only repeating what the media tell the public. Now, it is perfectly norm0al for Sweden to secure its territory. But the narrative and policies go way beyond this and, again, my take is that Russia is just a pretext to implement those by overblowing the threat.
  - mopsi 1y ago
    If anything, the media is downplaying the preparations to calm the population. Russia is not a pretext, but the reason for the preparations. Russian actions, from invading Georgia in 2008 to annexing Crimea in 2014 and launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to the current wave of sabotage, have fundamentally changed security assessments. These aren't hypothetical threats being "overblown". They're real, documented acts of aggression that have forced countries to reassess their defenses. The policies are a direct response to that reality, not an excuse manufactured to justify them. Dismissing that as mere PR is incredibly shallow. If the Swedish government wanted a publicity stunt, they would stage a photo op, not expand conscription and form new brigades.
    - mytailorisrich 1y ago
      Not PR or publicity stunt, more like "conspiracy". I have already written that my theory is that this is to manufacture consent of the public for a push of the EU into military matters and a further power-grab of the EU over European nation states. It is not very subtle but it seems to be working nevertheless.