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https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025?tid=1750980353462 https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025?tid=175098... Polymarket puts 30% chance

• consumer451 1y ago
  I have a heavy bias against that website, but it may be unfounded. It's been around for a while now, are there any 3rd party reliable studies showing how good polymarket markets are at predicting events?
  • NewJazz 1y ago
    They work well! Almost as well as Tarot.
  • deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  • yesco 1y ago
    Rather than viewing it as a predictive system, I think it's more pragmatic to view it as a kind of poll. Basically it's a quick and dirty way to check general sentiment around certain topics.
    • Balgair 1y ago
      I don't know about that one. The people that it 'polls' aren't that representative, leading to heavy bias. Which is fine, you can correct for that. It's just that I don't know their biases!
      • consumer451 1y ago
        It's a marketplace which is illegal to bet on in the USA, and commonly creates betting markets for US political events. What an interesting self-selection of users that creates.
  • spprashant 1y ago
    Anecdotally, when the US presidential elections were in the final few weeks, and the polls were leaning Harris, prediction markets suddenly slipped towards favoring Trump against conventional wisdom. There was one investor from France I believe who bet heavily on Trump winning almost $28M. After election it was revealed he had some private polling done, which informed his decision. It doesn't answer the question you posed, but I believe these markets could highlight some inefficiencies that conventional mainstream information cannot capture.