4 ms·

Given how many layoffs there have been and how much bad economic news has been coming out, I am quit surprised that we are not in a full blown technical recessi

Given how many layoffs there have been and how much bad economic news has been coming out, I am quit surprised that we are not in a full blown technical recession. Even the DJI is touching historic highs and bond yields are down. I know I sound like an armchair economist, which is probably why I am on here ranting instead of on a tropical beach with super models name Brooke and Tiffany, eating lobster and beluga caviar, washing it all down with fine champagne. I can only assume that the last 5 years have been so solid for the economy that we have a long way down to go before we even begin to feel pain.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Structural demographics. ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day, through a combination of retirement and death. Beat on the economy hard with these terminal interest rates and tariffs, demand for labor will still exceed supply. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=labor%20shortages&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
watwut 1y ago
Recession is when the economy was in decline for three quarters and it were not three quarters yet.
- plugger 1y ago
  Sorry, but the widely accepted definition of a technical recession is typically identified by two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real gross domestic product (GDP). Tuesday is the cut off date for the quarter and that will determine if the US is in technical recession.
  - firesteelrain 1y ago
    You're right that the textbook definition of a technical recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. That part’s clear. So technically, we can say “Q2 is over” on Tuesday, but we won’t be able to declare a recession (or not) until that data comes out. Unless you're inside the Fed or BEA models, we're all just speculating until then. The advance estimate drops on July 22 from the BEA. US is in a slight slowdown though
kylehotchkiss 1y ago
I appreciate you named your imaginary supermodels

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Structural demographics. ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day, through a combination of retirement and death. Beat on the economy hard with these terminal interest rates and tariffs, demand for labor will still exceed supply. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=labor%20shortages&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

watwut 1y ago

Recession is when the economy was in decline for three quarters and it were not three quarters yet.

plugger 1y ago
Sorry, but the widely accepted definition of a technical recession is typically identified by two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real gross domestic product (GDP). Tuesday is the cut off date for the quarter and that will determine if the US is in technical recession.
- firesteelrain 1y ago
  You're right that the textbook definition of a technical recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. That part’s clear. So technically, we can say “Q2 is over” on Tuesday, but we won’t be able to declare a recession (or not) until that data comes out. Unless you're inside the Fed or BEA models, we're all just speculating until then. The advance estimate drops on July 22 from the BEA. US is in a slight slowdown though

kylehotchkiss 1y ago

I appreciate you named your imaginary supermodels