5 ms·

Tennis Scorigami

49 points by jlarks32 1y ago

ben0x539 1y ago
Sorry OP I was so mesmerized by the cute mouse interaction in the logo that I didn't yet get around to checking out what this site is about.
- jlarks32 1y ago
  Honestly, it ends up being about 30% of the way I interact with my landing page. For better or for worse.
jedberg 1y ago
Skimming briefly, it looks like a lot of the missing score are some combo of 6-0 and then 0-6. Which makes sense. It's highly unlikely for a set to to be that unbalanced, and then be so unbalanced the other way.
- Someone 1y ago
  Adding some math: assume player 1 has a probability of p of winning a game, and therefore, player 2 having a probability of 1-p. Then, the probability of player 1 winning a set 6-0 is p⁶; the probability of player 2 doing that is (1-p)⁶. Let’s assume a fairly evenly matched game, where p=0.6. Then, those probabilities are about 4.7% and 0.4%. Combined, that’s about 1 in 5,000, or 1:2500 to get either of 6:0;0:6 or 0:6;6:0. Doesn’t sound too bad but in real life, that number will be a lot lower because of the server advantage in tennis. Especially in men’s tennis, the server has a big advantage, making even single set 6-0 scores highly unlikely.
  - jedberg 1y ago
    Your math assumes each game is fair, but we know they aren't, because different players have different skill levels, and skill is an important factor. And if the first set is 6-0, that indicates one side has exceptionally better skills.
    - Someone 1y ago
      > And if the first set is 6-0, that indicates one side has exceptionally better skills. In the model I proposed, it doesn’t. Even if the players are perfectly balanced, there’s a 1:64 probability of getting 6-0 and a 1:64 probability of getting 0-6. Combined, that’s a 3% chance of getting a bagel. But as I said, there’s a huge server’s advantage in men’s tennis. That makes ‘bagels’ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagel_(tennis) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagel_(tennis)) less likely there, and means a player winning a set 6:0 indeed statistically is much better than their opponent. They’re fairly common in women’s tennis, though, even ones with the side losing that set winning the match.
yzydserd 1y ago
TL;DR In the Women’s 3-set match, where there are 735 possibilities, these scores have never eventuated: 6-0 0-6 7-5, 6-0 0-6 6-0, 0-6 6-0 7-5 Meanwhile, in the 5-set format of Men’s matches, only 8.5% of the more than 100k result possibilities have occurred. Then add on a huge UI.
npinsker 1y ago
I can see the appeal of football Scorigami -- there's a story, an interesting one, behind some of the scores. Some seem impossible, but are barely doable. Some were only feasible in a different time, when the game was played differently. Many have to do with obscure rule clauses. It all makes for a great way to appreciate football from a different angle. Here I'm not really invested in any of the numbers... the website is beautiful though.
- gus_massa 1y ago
  (I didn't know it) Footbal Scorigami https://nflscorigami.com/ https://nflscorigami.com/
  - i_am_jl 1y ago
    The lore behind the idea of Scorigami: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l5C8cGMueY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l5C8cGMueY
- jlarks32 1y ago
  Ok 1) thank you for the comment about the website haha I am flattered. 2) Anything I could do to make your more invested in the numbers? I get what you mean about some of the scores being almost too homogenous and therefore the fact it's unique at a best-of-5 level makes it almost less globally unique. Any thoughts on how I could make the "story" a bit more interesting?
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
pimlottc 1y ago
I’m trying to read the box scores and they keep updating. I thought we all decided that automatic carousels were a bad idea years ago. Yes, I see now that you can stop this my manually advancing the carousel but it’s not at all obvious. Particularly since it’s no longer visible on mobile when you’ve scrolled down to the scores.
- jlarks32 1y ago
  Great feedback. I hear ya on the automatic carousels just was trying to capture that scoreboard-esque feel. I'll take action on these comments soon(ish). But yes, I concur I need to drastically improve the mobile layout tbh.
sported656 1y ago
[dead]
jlarks32 1y ago
Just a note, if you guys haven't checked out the `Explore` page, I would highly recommend doing that for some interesting visualizations. My first page -> second page dropoff % is higher than I would have hoped for...

49 points by jlarks32 1y ago

Sorry OP I was so mesmerized by the cute mouse interaction in the logo that I didn't yet get around to checking out what this site is about.

jlarks32 1y ago
Honestly, it ends up being about 30% of the way I interact with my landing page. For better or for worse.

jedberg 1y ago

Skimming briefly, it looks like a lot of the missing score are some combo of 6-0 and then 0-6. Which makes sense. It's highly unlikely for a set to to be that unbalanced, and then be so unbalanced the other way.

Someone 1y ago
Adding some math: assume player 1 has a probability of p of winning a game, and therefore, player 2 having a probability of 1-p. Then, the probability of player 1 winning a set 6-0 is p⁶; the probability of player 2 doing that is (1-p)⁶. Let’s assume a fairly evenly matched game, where p=0.6. Then, those probabilities are about 4.7% and 0.4%. Combined, that’s about 1 in 5,000, or 1:2500 to get either of 6:0;0:6 or 0:6;6:0. Doesn’t sound too bad but in real life, that number will be a lot lower because of the server advantage in tennis. Especially in men’s tennis, the server has a big advantage, making even single set 6-0 scores highly unlikely.
- jedberg 1y ago
  Your math assumes each game is fair, but we know they aren't, because different players have different skill levels, and skill is an important factor. And if the first set is 6-0, that indicates one side has exceptionally better skills.
  - Someone 1y ago
    > And if the first set is 6-0, that indicates one side has exceptionally better skills. In the model I proposed, it doesn’t. Even if the players are perfectly balanced, there’s a 1:64 probability of getting 6-0 and a 1:64 probability of getting 0-6. Combined, that’s a 3% chance of getting a bagel. But as I said, there’s a huge server’s advantage in men’s tennis. That makes ‘bagels’ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagel_(tennis) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagel_(tennis)) less likely there, and means a player winning a set 6:0 indeed statistically is much better than their opponent. They’re fairly common in women’s tennis, though, even ones with the side losing that set winning the match.

yzydserd 1y ago

TL;DR In the Women’s 3-set match, where there are 735 possibilities, these scores have never eventuated: 6-0 0-6 7-5, 6-0 0-6 6-0, 0-6 6-0 7-5 Meanwhile, in the 5-set format of Men’s matches, only 8.5% of the more than 100k result possibilities have occurred. Then add on a huge UI.

npinsker 1y ago

I can see the appeal of football Scorigami -- there's a story, an interesting one, behind some of the scores. Some seem impossible, but are barely doable. Some were only feasible in a different time, when the game was played differently. Many have to do with obscure rule clauses. It all makes for a great way to appreciate football from a different angle. Here I'm not really invested in any of the numbers... the website is beautiful though.

gus_massa 1y ago
(I didn't know it) Footbal Scorigami https://nflscorigami.com/ https://nflscorigami.com/
- i_am_jl 1y ago
  The lore behind the idea of Scorigami: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l5C8cGMueY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l5C8cGMueY
jlarks32 1y ago
Ok 1) thank you for the comment about the website haha I am flattered. 2) Anything I could do to make your more invested in the numbers? I get what you mean about some of the scores being almost too homogenous and therefore the fact it's unique at a best-of-5 level makes it almost less globally unique. Any thoughts on how I could make the "story" a bit more interesting?

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

pimlottc 1y ago

I’m trying to read the box scores and they keep updating. I thought we all decided that automatic carousels were a bad idea years ago. Yes, I see now that you can stop this my manually advancing the carousel but it’s not at all obvious. Particularly since it’s no longer visible on mobile when you’ve scrolled down to the scores.

jlarks32 1y ago
Great feedback. I hear ya on the automatic carousels just was trying to capture that scoreboard-esque feel. I'll take action on these comments soon(ish). But yes, I concur I need to drastically improve the mobile layout tbh.

sported656 1y ago

[dead]

jlarks32 1y ago

Just a note, if you guys haven't checked out the `Explore` page, I would highly recommend doing that for some interesting visualizations. My first page -> second page dropoff % is higher than I would have hoped for...