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This is true, but the author also talks about cost e.g. $500 for a drone vs $100 for an artillery shell with far more effect. Surely at the point where the dron

by Neil44 1y ago

This is true, but the author also talks about cost e.g. $500 for a drone vs $100 for an artillery shell with far more effect. Surely at the point where the drone has visual on the target you can fire 5 x shells over for massively greater effect on target, and keep the drone flying for the next target, and the next.

varjag 1y ago
$100 is a cost of a 60mm mortar shell. It is a hand grenade sized munition lobbed from a Pringles can sized weapon to the range of 1-2km. This is generally not the thing that comes to mind when you think of artillery strike. A 155mm (dumb, unguided) shell would set you back 5-8K USD. That's before the propellant charge, fuse and amortization of the artillery piece and its 5 man crew.
- Neil44 1y ago
  That's interesting thankyou. It's a good google rabbit hole. Apparently we're in surge pricing right now because of Ukraine, and Russian shells are only costing them $1000. It seems they caught us sleeping, manufacturing wise.
  - varjag 1y ago
    The heavy Soivet calibre used by Russia is 152mm which translates to a slightly cheaper shell (though not 5x for sure). Russia also uses 122mm arty which is substantially cheaper: the costs follow to the cube volume. Another factor is that a lot of supplies are Iranian and North Korean old stock with what we can assume reasonable prices. Ukraine was getting Vietnam war era 155mm stock relatively cheap too, while it lasted.
- hnaccount_rng 1y ago
  Then again the payload of an FPV is much more comparable to the mortar round than to the 155mm one
  - tclancy 1y ago
    But theoretically much better aimed. Don’t know if there’s enough data here to do the math. Plus that it’s a bit gauche to do math about human lives, but here we are.
    - Nicook 1y ago
      don't need to aim a large shell as accurately though.
      - varjag 1y ago
        It averages out at 8-10 shells to kill or disable one soldier.
    - hnaccount_rng 1y ago
      Do you have numbers for that? Because the higher-end munition also has (rudimentary) steering capabilities? And higher end stuff obviously has the same or better honing software
  - varjag 1y ago
    An FPV drone can take out a tank, missile erector-launcher or a dugout. Kinda hard with 60mm mortar.
    - hnaccount_rng 1y ago
      The estimate is 20 FPV hits for one kill right? But sure, the last one kills it
- bluGill 1y ago
  A M107 155mm round weights 95lbs when launched. Assuming that is pure lead (this is false, but lead is very cheap and it gives us numbers to work with) I can buy lead ignots for $2.89/lbs. Which puts us at $293 per rounds in just materials. Since we assume the other materials cost money too, plus there is the energy used to turn ignots into a round, it seems unlikely you can get the cost to much under $1000 no matter how good your mass production is.
  - beAbU 1y ago
    And then you need to add that 5-10x government contract price multiplier to the cost as well.
  - euroderf 1y ago
    But how much of the shell cost is the capital cost of precision machining ? And how much is the capital & operating costs of workforce safety ?
glitchc 1y ago
Mortar is notoriously inaccurate, while a drone is a precision guided weapon. To compare apples to apples, a drone needs to be compared to other precision guided weapons. Think Stinger or other TOW missiles instead. Those are at least two orders more expensive.

by Neil44 1y ago

varjag 1y ago

$100 is a cost of a 60mm mortar shell. It is a hand grenade sized munition lobbed from a Pringles can sized weapon to the range of 1-2km. This is generally not the thing that comes to mind when you think of artillery strike. A 155mm (dumb, unguided) shell would set you back 5-8K USD. That's before the propellant charge, fuse and amortization of the artillery piece and its 5 man crew.

Neil44 1y ago
That's interesting thankyou. It's a good google rabbit hole. Apparently we're in surge pricing right now because of Ukraine, and Russian shells are only costing them $1000. It seems they caught us sleeping, manufacturing wise.
- varjag 1y ago
  The heavy Soivet calibre used by Russia is 152mm which translates to a slightly cheaper shell (though not 5x for sure). Russia also uses 122mm arty which is substantially cheaper: the costs follow to the cube volume. Another factor is that a lot of supplies are Iranian and North Korean old stock with what we can assume reasonable prices. Ukraine was getting Vietnam war era 155mm stock relatively cheap too, while it lasted.
hnaccount_rng 1y ago
Then again the payload of an FPV is much more comparable to the mortar round than to the 155mm one
- tclancy 1y ago
  But theoretically much better aimed. Don’t know if there’s enough data here to do the math. Plus that it’s a bit gauche to do math about human lives, but here we are.
  - Nicook 1y ago
    don't need to aim a large shell as accurately though.
    - varjag 1y ago
      It averages out at 8-10 shells to kill or disable one soldier.
  - hnaccount_rng 1y ago
    Do you have numbers for that? Because the higher-end munition also has (rudimentary) steering capabilities? And higher end stuff obviously has the same or better honing software
- varjag 1y ago
  An FPV drone can take out a tank, missile erector-launcher or a dugout. Kinda hard with 60mm mortar.
  - hnaccount_rng 1y ago
    The estimate is 20 FPV hits for one kill right? But sure, the last one kills it
bluGill 1y ago
A M107 155mm round weights 95lbs when launched. Assuming that is pure lead (this is false, but lead is very cheap and it gives us numbers to work with) I can buy lead ignots for $2.89/lbs. Which puts us at $293 per rounds in just materials. Since we assume the other materials cost money too, plus there is the energy used to turn ignots into a round, it seems unlikely you can get the cost to much under $1000 no matter how good your mass production is.
- beAbU 1y ago
  And then you need to add that 5-10x government contract price multiplier to the cost as well.
- euroderf 1y ago
  But how much of the shell cost is the capital cost of precision machining ? And how much is the capital & operating costs of workforce safety ?

glitchc 1y ago

Mortar is notoriously inaccurate, while a drone is a precision guided weapon. To compare apples to apples, a drone needs to be compared to other precision guided weapons. Think Stinger or other TOW missiles instead. Those are at least two orders more expensive.