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"Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan of New York said on X on Tuesday that “Trump just cancelled a classified House briefing on the Iran strikes with zero explanation. The

"Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan of New York said on X on Tuesday that “Trump just cancelled a classified House briefing on the Iran strikes with zero explanation. The real reason? He claims he destroyed ‘all nuclear facilities and capability;’ his team knows they can’t back up his bluster and BS.”" This one is quite telling... If this assessment is true, then I would expect the situation to get really bad in less than a year. What would you do if you were Khamenei ? Trump already said he doesn't raelly care if he needs to do a 'regime change'. The only way to ensure that this doesn't happen, given the dramatic air superiority of Israel / US, is to get nukes and get them quickly... What are his other realistic options ?

_zagj 1y ago
> The only way to ensure that this doesn't happen, given the dramatic air superiority of Israel / US, is to get nukes and get them quickly... What are his other realistic options ? Disband his nuclear program altogether? The only reason Iran is being bombed at all, at least by the US, is because of their nuclear program. Even when the Houthis, their sponsored proxy, were attacking US shipping, the US never took direct military action Iran.
- 7e 1y ago
  North Korea has the bomb and hasn't been bombed at all. It's a great deterrent. Now look at Ukraine, which gave up its nukes in exchange for promises of security, and how those were totally violated by Russia.
  - _zagj 1y ago
    > North Korea is a client state of China, and it also possess a massive array of conventional artillery in range of Seoul. And since the Korean War, which we now know conclusively that NK started, almost every overt act of aggression between the two Koreas has been perpetrated by the North against the South, e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Flight_858 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Flight_858
  - _DeadFred_ 1y ago
    North Korea isn't bombed because they have artillery directly against the head of South Korea. That's the reason they were allowed to get the bomb in the first place.
- TheAlchemist 1y ago
  That would be an option, but given how Middle East work, you're either strong or you will be bombed sooner or later. Sure they could just make peace with Israel and that may be a solution, but not a realistic one. In the realistic solution, if they don't get a nuke, they will share the same fate as Libya, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon...
  - _zagj 1y ago
    > if they don't get a nuke they will share the same fate as Libya, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon... The Syrian government (which had and used WMDs) was ultimately toppled by its own citizens, after losing support from Russia, wasn't it? And what is the "fate" Lebanon? What's changed, besides Hezbollah's capabilities being substantially degraded? It's the same state with the same constitution, isn't it?
    - TheAlchemist 1y ago
      True. However all of those countries were bombed into submission or chaos (Israel destroyed most of Syria military equipmenet just after the fall of Al Assad).

_zagj 1y ago

> The only way to ensure that this doesn't happen, given the dramatic air superiority of Israel / US, is to get nukes and get them quickly... What are his other realistic options ? Disband his nuclear program altogether? The only reason Iran is being bombed at all, at least by the US, is because of their nuclear program. Even when the Houthis, their sponsored proxy, were attacking US shipping, the US never took direct military action Iran.

7e 1y ago
North Korea has the bomb and hasn't been bombed at all. It's a great deterrent. Now look at Ukraine, which gave up its nukes in exchange for promises of security, and how those were totally violated by Russia.
- _zagj 1y ago
  > North Korea is a client state of China, and it also possess a massive array of conventional artillery in range of Seoul. And since the Korean War, which we now know conclusively that NK started, almost every overt act of aggression between the two Koreas has been perpetrated by the North against the South, e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Flight_858 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Flight_858
- _DeadFred_ 1y ago
  North Korea isn't bombed because they have artillery directly against the head of South Korea. That's the reason they were allowed to get the bomb in the first place.
TheAlchemist 1y ago
That would be an option, but given how Middle East work, you're either strong or you will be bombed sooner or later. Sure they could just make peace with Israel and that may be a solution, but not a realistic one. In the realistic solution, if they don't get a nuke, they will share the same fate as Libya, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon...
- _zagj 1y ago
  > if they don't get a nuke they will share the same fate as Libya, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon... The Syrian government (which had and used WMDs) was ultimately toppled by its own citizens, after losing support from Russia, wasn't it? And what is the "fate" Lebanon? What's changed, besides Hezbollah's capabilities being substantially degraded? It's the same state with the same constitution, isn't it?
  - TheAlchemist 1y ago
    True. However all of those countries were bombed into submission or chaos (Israel destroyed most of Syria military equipmenet just after the fall of Al Assad).