3 ms·

bangs head against the table. Look, fitting a single metric to a curve and projecting from that only gets you a "model" that conforms to your curve fitting. "

bangs head against the table. Look, fitting a single metric to a curve and projecting from that only gets you a "model" that conforms to your curve fitting. "proper" AI, where it starts to remove 10-15% of jobs will cause an economic blood bath. The current rate of AI expansion requires almost exponential amounts of cash injections. That cash comes from petro-dollars and advertising sales. (and the ability of investment banks to print money based on those investment) Those sources of cash require a functioning world economy. given that the US economy is three fox news headlines away from collapse[1] exponential money supply looks a bit dicey If you, in the space of 2 years remove 10-15% of all jobs, you will spark revolutions. This will cause loands to be called in, banks to fail and the dollar, presently run obvious dipshits, to evaporate. This will stop investment in AI, which means no exponential growth. Sure you can talk about universal credit, but unless something radical changes, the people who run our economies will not consent to giving away cash to the plebs. AI 2027 is unmitigated bullshit, but with graphs, so people think there is a science to it. [1] trump needs a "good" economy. If the fed, who are currently mostly independent need to raise interest rates, and fox news doesn't like it, then trump will remove it's independence. This will really raise the chance of the dollar being dumped for something else (and its either the euro or renminbi, but more likely the latter) That'll also kill the UK because for some reason we hold ~1.2 times our GDP in US short term bonds. TLDR: you need an exponential supply of cash for AI 2027 to even be close to working.

goatlover 1y ago
It's certainly hard to imagine the political situation in the US resulting in UBI anytime soon, while at the same time the party in control wants unregulated AI development for the next decade.
- bcrosby95 1y ago
  It's the '30s with no FDR in sight. It won't end well for anyone.
gensym 1y ago
> AI 2027 is unmitigated bullshit, but with graphs, so people think there is a science to it. AI 2027 is classic Rationalist/LessWrong/AI Doomer Motte-Bailey - it's a science fiction story that pretends to be rigorous and predictive but in such a way that when you point out it's neither, the authors can fall back to "it's just a story". At first I was surprised at how much traction this thing got, but this is the type of argument that community has been refining for decades and this point, and it's pretty effective on people who lack the antibodies for it.
- tux3 1y ago
  It's the other way around entirely: the story is the unrigorous bailey, when confronted they fall back to the actual research behind it And you can certainly criticize the research, but you've got the motte and the bailey backwards
  - shehzade 1y ago
    Hey tux3, sorry to post off topic, but is there any chance I could DM you on Discord/Signal/Reddit/etc…? You had a super interesting comment a while back about CrowdStrike RE that I was really hoping I could ask you about further! Discord: shehzade1618 Reddit: u/shehzade16180 Signal: shehzade.1618
- mitthrowaway2 1y ago
  I'm very much an AI doomer myself, and even I don't think AI 2027 holds water. I find myself quite confused about what its proponents (including Scott Alexander) are even expecting to get from the project, because it seems to me like the median result will be a big loss of AI-doomer credibilty in 2028 when the talking point shifts to "but it's a long tailed prediction!"
  - hollerith 1y ago
    Same here. I ask the reader not to react to AI 2027 by dismissing the possibility that it is quite dangerous to let the AI labs continue with their labbing.
OgsyedIE 1y ago
I disagree with the forecast too, but your critique is off-base. The assumption that exponential cash is required assumes that subexponential capex can't chug along gradually without the industry collapsing into mass bankruptcy. Additionally, the investment cash that the likes of Softbank are throwing away comes from private holdings like pensions and has little to nothing to do with the sovereign holdings of OPEC+ nations. The reason that it doesn't hold water are the bottlenecks on compute production. TSMC is still the only supplier of anything useful for foundation model training and their expansions only appear big and/or fast if you read the likes of Forbes.
- KaiserPro 1y ago
  > cash that the likes of Softbank are throwing away comes from private holding Softbank use debt to leverage various things. They require a functioning monetary system to work. They cannot work as they are in a financial recession. Sure some of it might pensions, but again that drys up when the financial system freezes. Money doesn't exist in a vacuum. Its not some fixed supply of things. its a dynamic system that grows and contracts based largely on vibes.
pier25 1y ago
> AI 2027 is unmitigated bullshit, but with graphs, so people think there is a science to it. One of the best things I've read all day.
JimDabell 1y ago
It’s not just changing economics that will derail the projections. The story gives them enough compute and intelligence to massively sway public opinion and elections, but then seems to just assume the world will just keep working the same way on those fronts. They think ASI will be invented, but 60% of the public will disapprove; I guess a successful PR campaign is too difficult for the “country of geniuses in a datacenter”?

goatlover 1y ago

It's certainly hard to imagine the political situation in the US resulting in UBI anytime soon, while at the same time the party in control wants unregulated AI development for the next decade.

bcrosby95 1y ago
It's the '30s with no FDR in sight. It won't end well for anyone.

gensym 1y ago

> AI 2027 is unmitigated bullshit, but with graphs, so people think there is a science to it. AI 2027 is classic Rationalist/LessWrong/AI Doomer Motte-Bailey - it's a science fiction story that pretends to be rigorous and predictive but in such a way that when you point out it's neither, the authors can fall back to "it's just a story". At first I was surprised at how much traction this thing got, but this is the type of argument that community has been refining for decades and this point, and it's pretty effective on people who lack the antibodies for it.

tux3 1y ago
It's the other way around entirely: the story is the unrigorous bailey, when confronted they fall back to the actual research behind it And you can certainly criticize the research, but you've got the motte and the bailey backwards
- shehzade 1y ago
  Hey tux3, sorry to post off topic, but is there any chance I could DM you on Discord/Signal/Reddit/etc…? You had a super interesting comment a while back about CrowdStrike RE that I was really hoping I could ask you about further! Discord: shehzade1618 Reddit: u/shehzade16180 Signal: shehzade.1618
mitthrowaway2 1y ago
I'm very much an AI doomer myself, and even I don't think AI 2027 holds water. I find myself quite confused about what its proponents (including Scott Alexander) are even expecting to get from the project, because it seems to me like the median result will be a big loss of AI-doomer credibilty in 2028 when the talking point shifts to "but it's a long tailed prediction!"
- hollerith 1y ago
  Same here. I ask the reader not to react to AI 2027 by dismissing the possibility that it is quite dangerous to let the AI labs continue with their labbing.

OgsyedIE 1y ago

I disagree with the forecast too, but your critique is off-base. The assumption that exponential cash is required assumes that subexponential capex can't chug along gradually without the industry collapsing into mass bankruptcy. Additionally, the investment cash that the likes of Softbank are throwing away comes from private holdings like pensions and has little to nothing to do with the sovereign holdings of OPEC+ nations. The reason that it doesn't hold water are the bottlenecks on compute production. TSMC is still the only supplier of anything useful for foundation model training and their expansions only appear big and/or fast if you read the likes of Forbes.

KaiserPro 1y ago
> cash that the likes of Softbank are throwing away comes from private holding Softbank use debt to leverage various things. They require a functioning monetary system to work. They cannot work as they are in a financial recession. Sure some of it might pensions, but again that drys up when the financial system freezes. Money doesn't exist in a vacuum. Its not some fixed supply of things. its a dynamic system that grows and contracts based largely on vibes.

pier25 1y ago

> AI 2027 is unmitigated bullshit, but with graphs, so people think there is a science to it. One of the best things I've read all day.

JimDabell 1y ago

It’s not just changing economics that will derail the projections. The story gives them enough compute and intelligence to massively sway public opinion and elections, but then seems to just assume the world will just keep working the same way on those fronts. They think ASI will be invented, but 60% of the public will disapprove; I guess a successful PR campaign is too difficult for the “country of geniuses in a datacenter”?